3-2 Count - Tomorrow AM on Deck

The way I see it, three of the absolute best ERs this reporting season has been those of DDOG, BILL and UPST. All three just really hit the ball out of the park and it would be hard to rank the three as each had their moment:

DDOG with its vertically accelerating Y/Y Revenue Growth over the last three reports of 67%…75%…and now 84%.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3798647-datadog-shares-rocket-…

BILL with its Organic Core Revenue Growth of 85% Y/Y and extraordinary FY2022 Guidance increase from consensus of $540.35M to $597M to $600M.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3796110-billcom-stock-soars-30…

UPST with its combo of Revenue Beat, Strong Guidance and Share Buyback announcement

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3800395-upstart-stock-soars-af…

Luckily I have strong positions in two of those, DDOG and UPST - and had BILL early this year before stupidly exiting. Most likely the Big Doozy Mistake of the Year and neatly now filed under my What Was I Thinking file. Still…two out of three ain’t bad with the question being should I just go ahead and start BILL as a Scout Team position and wait to see what happens for a while? Thinking about it.

But tomorrow BTMO (Before The Market Opens) two more companies that I track will report: PLTR and FVRR. At one time or another I have had positions in both - given up for what appeared to me as either systemic problems with both and/or better options. I am curious to see if either of them can join the Big 3 noted above.

  1. PLTR has fallen on hard times lately and hovering just above it’s lows - currently off about 54% from its high. Nothing spectacularly odd about that as most Growth has seen fairly similar price whacking activity with the exception that over the last couple of weeks or so most Growth has seen some semblance of a rally - short lived as it might be.

https://www.palantir.com/

Its last ER was back in November and it came in with Beats on both EPS and Revenue. Revenue Growth Y/Y clocked in at 36% and it did raise guidance. Here is the Press Release from that report:

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/18551202?source=content_type%3Ar…

As a reminder, PLTR has two distinct programs - Commercial and Government. Overall appeal and success hangs its hat on the Commercial program development. So what is expected for tomorrow’s report:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3800877-will-palantir-technolo…

And a positive Outlook:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4486831-palantir-strong-fun…

OK so what would it take for PLTR to Join the list of the Big 3 to make it a Big 4: Revenue Growth approaching 50% - a boom in new customers with spectacular Commercial success and FY Guidance that Wows. Ok so what are the odds?

Not good. PLTR is likely to have a good QTR - if not a spectacular one with the stock having nowhere to go but up. We’ll see I suppose and while I like PLTR it is something of a political football.

  1. FVRR is a company I very much want to really, really like. The concept of the gig economy is supposedly here to stay and FVRR is knee deep in the mix for Gig Economy Kahuna. And it’s got those really smart Israeli folks running it. Whats not to like? Well…for starters consider that to celebrate its BTMO ER report tomorrow it celebrated today by losing just over 10% of its value. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for a rock solid run into a healthy Earnings Report. In fact, FVRR is now about 77% Below its High.

Now that might not be as bad as it sounds - unless you were one of those folks who actually bought it at $325.89, mainly because the thing was way, way overpriced back then and one of the reasons I bailed out. Now though - sitting at about $3B Market Cap (Give or take a Smidge) just taking a flyer on it for funsies couldn’t possibly be all that much of a disaster one way or the other. Well…I thought about it and then didn’t.

https://www.fiverr.com/

On its last ER the company had Beats on both EPS and Revenue with Revenue Growth coming in at +42% and they added a million new customers over the course of the year with the average spend trending up. Along with all that they boosted their full year guidance which is always a good thing. On the iffy side was the fact that their Revenue Beat was on the very slim side - coming in somewhere around the 4.5% level. Note: I personally like to see Revenue Beats in the 8-10% range and better. Here is the Press Release on that report:

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/18553861?source=content_type%3Ar…

So…what would it take for FVRR to join the ER All Stars? Well…for one they have to re-accelerate theY/Y Revenue Growth somewhere above the 50% level, really, really boost FY Guidance, Announce a WOW QTR for adding customers with skyrocketing Spend growth. Here is what is expected:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3800946-will-fiverr-internatio…

Here is a Rah Rah Scouting Report:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4480720-fiverr-fvrr-stock-f…

Special Note: The above article is by Gary Alexander who I belief is something of contra indicator for stocks.

What are the odds? Investors fled the scene in droves today in anticipation of a Hole-In-The-Bucket report. Or - maybe someone knows something and it leaked to the powers that be. Anyway - fun to watch from the sidelines. Sort of like watching Navy Football to see how many Defensive line players for the other team suffer knee injuries - but for FVRR to do any real chest thumping or jersey popping the numbers will have to be stratospheric in nature. Could happen I suppose but I would take the Under if I were you - or if I were me for that matter.

Note: I am an amateur investor with a long, long litany of some really spectacular mistakes to my credit.

All the Best,

2 Likes

Here it is about 1 AM or so Thursday morning and FVRR has released its 2021 Q4 results. They are reporting Revenue Growth of 43% Y/Y; 23% Y/Y growth in customers, Guidance for Q1 2022 is for $85 - $87M representing Y/Y growth of 24% to 27%. Press Release here:

https://investors.fiverr.com/press-releases/press-releases-d…

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&…

All the Best,

1 Like