Back in 2013, their stock price was around $44. Today it is around $13.
Back in Feb-2013, analysts were expecting DDD will earn a adj-EPS of $2 in 2016. Current revised estimate for 2016 adj-EPS is how much? 28 cents. And now analysts are expecting a GAAP EPS of -34 cents (loss). BTW, I dont think there were GAAP EPS projections for 2016 in Feb-2013, but in Apr-2014, the GAAP EPS projection for 2016 was $1.51
That’s how good a job the analyst community does. But they have the guts to continue making shameless projections.
What does Saul do in such circumstances to navigate the market?
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What does Saul do in such circumstances to navigate the market?
So, I’m about the furthest guy from Saul in terms of investing smarts…but in the case of DDD…that’s not a stock he would have been in. All story, no profit.
As far as analysts’ projections? Largely noise. The method espoused here on Saul’s board focuses on the business fundamentals and what management has to say and how they say it.
It’s all in the Knowledgebase.
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In this pupil’s estimation, rejecting a stock like DDD is a huge part of Saul’s success. A similar situation, which he has similarly rejected (if I’m reading old posts like #13517 correctly), is FEYE. I keep reading things about the company being profitable by 2020 or something. Who the heck knows what will happen in 2020? We have a hard enough time predicting 2016, as you pointed out in the post about S&P’s useless range already being revised.
And if FEYE does get there in 2020, well, what do you think is going to happen then? The dang stock price is already trading as if it’s happened. If they get there, maybe all that means is the stock doesn’t plummet! They’ll have to create a new story for what happens in 2025 or 2030 to get Mr Market to keep paying a ridiculous premium going forward.
Not that anyone’s necessarily listening, but if they are they’re tired of me using NFLX as an example of this. The valuation is nigh-incomprehensible, and bakes in a future that not only hasn’t happened, but even if it is a forgone conclusion, you’re still paying for it now. Why pay a fair 2025 price for a stock today?
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Tim wrote, So, I’m about the furthest guy from Saul in terms of investing smarts…but in the case of DDD…that’s not a stock he would have been in. All story, no profit.
What Tim and Paul both are saying is that Saul would have outright rejected this stock because there was no profit. Problem is, this company was and is profitable by Saul’s metric. Adj EPS. He uses adj-EPS all the time. In 2013, they reported adj EPS of 85c. And currently at 30c. The problem is the profits went away. This is no PANW or FEYE.
I know for a fact that Saul likes adj-eps, because I had a big argument with him a few years ago on this subject with reference to ELLI. This probably pre-dates this board. Prior to that he had written a first draft of his knowledge base on an incredibly popular (& useful) board post in RB.
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What Tim and Paul both are saying is that Saul would have outright rejected this stock because there was no profit.
Actually, what I was saying is that Saul would have rejected it because the valuation was too high. In other words, even if the $2 EPS forecast for 2016 had turned out to be correct, then a reasonable 2016 share price (let’s be generous and use a P/E of 20) would be around $40. So why would Saul or anyone pay $44 for it in early 2013?
That’s what I was saying. Maybe Saul will chime in and let us know what he actually did.
That’s what I was saying. Maybe Saul will chime in and let us know what he actually did.
I held it and SSYS for a brief while and decided that all the 3D printers were selling on hype and dreams. All too high priced and growing too slowly, if at all. And 3D Systems especially was trying to do it on acquisitions.
Saul
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Except Arcam at this point in time
AMAVF is flirting with 52 week highs despite a generally sluggish market.
There are lots of unknowns about EBM printing today. Many of these will be answered within a year, but not necessarily to the benefit of Arcam.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_i…
However it is a near sure thing that the Arcam EBM process will get more industrialized , better and faster over the next few years . And likely improve at a faster rate than competitive methods like metal casting, already in use many generations before the pyramids were built.
The fields of aerospace and medical devices are highly regulated with long testing and certification procedures , so there is an incentive not to try anything new. Plus an oligopoly is often in control in both fields. This is important -Space X shows what can be done outside a set in it’s ways high cost structure oligopoly.
The result of the long certification process is safety but near glacial rates of progress.
IMO, EBM is in the second inning. It might take years to get to the third inning…
Is Arcam a “Saul Stock”. Don’t know, don’t care. I plan to hold it for years based on acceptance of the technology and for the earnings, not based on the stock price. Because if there is any breakthrough I will not be the first to know.
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