So what do we have? A company little understood by investors, which hasn’t yet been run up to astronomical levels, and in a category of its own (more or less) with a TAM 100x larger than its revenue, and growing revenue at over 50% per year in the 9 months its been public, and this actually seems to be accelerating, as they only grew revenue 42% from in 2015 over 2014. With an enormously rapid rate of customer acquisition, with a very low cost of acquisition. With many household names among their customers. With positive Operating Cash Flow. With an Adjusted Operating Margin moving up rapidly towards breakeven, and having perhaps just started having positive adjusted earnings. With a land and expand strategy, which is working like gangbusters, with the highest Dollar-Based Retention Rate I’ve ever seen (133% to 135%), and with 2014 and 2015 cohorts growing take by 70% and 90% in the second year. With a gross margin of 86%. With a reasonable EV/S ratio for a rapidly growing company. With high customer satisfaction and happy customers who keep signing up for more and more. What more could I ask for?
Hope you find it helpful
Saul
For Knowledgebase for this board, please go to Post #17774, 17775 and 17776.
We had to post it in three parts this time.
A link to the Knowledgebase is also at the top of the Announcements column
that is on the right side of every page on this board
As a data point (and maybe to somewhat gauge the overall power of this discussion board), I am observing that the after-hours price of Alteryx has gone up 2.60% to $28.36 from the 12/12/2017 closing price of $27.64.
Looking at the price over the past week, it appears that Saul’s cost basis is in the range of $27.30-27.50/share…maybe lower if he started buying last Tuesday (12/5) or earlier.
it appears that Saul’s cost basis is in the range of $27.30-27.50/share
Hi volfan,
No, my cost basis is $27.84, which was 20 cents above today’s closing price. But I’m buying hoping it will triple or more (up 200%), and I really didn’t care about a less than 1% drop.
Saul
Hi Saul,
You talk in terms of percentages when buying but in this instance and being a new position for you and I hope you don’t mind me asking and totally understand if you wish not to reply but could you divulge the amount of shares you brought?
I hope you don’t mind me asking and totally understand if you wish not to reply but could you divulge the amount of shares you brought?
Hi Branmin,
On all the MF boards, one doesn’t talk about numbers of dollars or shares. In fact it’s considered inappropriate, or bragging, or rude, as I understand it. We all have different current amounts of wealth, and what’s a small amount for one person is a lot for another. It just doesn’t work, and isn’t done.
Best,
Saul
I purchased AYX a little over a month ago after reading Berts’ article, and doing some research. A lot to like from this company. Stock took a little jump on Dec. 5th when the CEO was on CNBC.
I purchased AYX a little over a month ago after reading Berts’ article, and doing some research. A lot to like from this company. Stock took a little jump on Dec. 5th when the CEO was on CNBC.
Hi Jimbo, I sure wish you had called it to our attention and written it up for us a month ago. Don’t be shy. That’s what the board is all about, helping each other.
Saul
Saul et all,
Thanks for sharing with me all that you do and bringing this opportunity to my attention.
One thing I like to do when researching companies is look at glassdoor to see what working at that company might be like. It gives me a non-financial ground truth to how the company operates. And maybe I’ll apply for a job as well.
Not the hottest reviews (3.5 stars), seems like reviewers either love or hate the company, and focus on culture/management. For a company this size, I would actually expect more positive reviews. But just my two cents.
I’m curious on which position you drew down or eliminated and why?
I’ve been culling some of my underperformers. Most recently BL. I still like them, but it’s lagged lately in performance.
I’m one of those who started with a HUGE portfolio, and have whittled it down to 20 or so. Culling might be the most important discipline I’ve learned on this board. (That and attempting to resist price anchoring).
I’m one of those who started with a HUGE portfolio, and have whittled it down to 20 or so. Culling might be the most important discipline I’ve learned on this board. (That and attempting to resist price anchoring).
Me too. I am in the process of the cull. I don’t think I’ll ever get it to 20 companies, but 30-35 would probably be right for me.
I’m curious rhpolk, how many tickers did you start with?
I held under performers way too long “hoping” to keep them long enough to recover to breakeven. Then I focused on the opportunity cost. THAT got me motivated.
I’m curious on which position you drew down or eliminated and why?
Hi Bob, I generally don’t discuss what I’ve sold (and often, what I’ve bought), until the end of the month. It’s mostly because I sometimes make adjustments that are trials, but also because I don’t want to have to justify every move I make, and finally because my primary duty is to myself and my family. I do make an effort to bring you up to date at the end of the month though.
Best,
Saul
Me too. I am in the process of the cull. I don’t think I’ll ever get it to 20 companies, but 30-35 would probably be right for me.
I’m curious rhpolk, how many tickers did you start with?
Jeb
I am thinking of trimming or culling my positions as well. I have over 50 stocks at this time! I have a few candidates to cull. Unfortunately, I think I would probably do best by just never selling a stock. I sold one loser this year, mainly to harvest the tax loss, with the intention of buying back in with a smaller position. Of course, it started rising within a month of my sale (when I couldn’t buy back in due to the tax loss rules) and is now up about 55% from my sell price! This is a stock I had owned for many years with about a 50% loss. The other problem with selling a laggard with any gains is the capital gains taxes.
There have been a few good sells in the past year, of course.
I’ve decided not to worry about the tax implications when selling a stock, only the longer term investing thesis. And I think I’m in your boat too, trimming to 30-35 might be best to have a more focused but not overly concentrated portfolio.
with a TAM 100x larger than its revenue, and growing revenue at over 50% per year in the 9 months its been public
I have very little experience in investing on high growth companies. So looking for some help in modeling the growth,
How you model the growth, do you expect the current growth rate to continue for x number of years or you expect it like 50% 2018, 40% 2019, 35% 2020, 30% 2021, 25% 2022, etc. or you just assume the company can get 30% market share eventually that is $3B in 10 years.
modeling the growth
for me the whole concept of “modeling” something that has not happened yet is a problem. To do so you must make lots of assumptions, most of which will be wrong, because they have yet to happen. The future is by nature murky.
Personally I prefer a more rough and ready approach. Looking for broken processes, a rising tide, something people want that does not need to be actively sold, and a good business . And of course edges and moats. It has worked out well for me.
Could I have given any really valid figures for ay Microsoft in the 1980’s ? The number of OS they would sell depended on the number of PC sold so I would have to predict that too. Would I have been able predict how much the iPhone would become iconic. After all the Android pones were almost as good.