A new stock I've taken a tiny position in

A new stock I’ve taken a tiny position in.

Before I say anything else let me specify, SHOUT even: DON’T take a BIG position in this stock! I’ve taken only a 0.28% position, which is truly tiny. My average position is 4.0%, so this is just one-fourteenth of a average position. My large positions are 8.0%, so this is just one-twenty-ninth of a large position. I REALLY have just a tiny position here.

Okay, now that that is out of the way, I can’t remember how I learned about this company but it may have been through a short article on Seeking Alpha which was attacking it as a “pump and dump” operation, which it may have been at one time for all I know. I’ve seen ads saying “Buy this company” and they did look like crude pump and dump ads. It’s a very little company in Hawaii called KonaRed (KRED), a penny stock, which makes health drinks out of coffee berries, and has started making other products too like health bars.

They had almost no revenue in 2012 and only about $0.9 million in revenue in all of 2013, but in the first quarter they have started to collect a lot, a real lot, of distribution, including store chains like CVS pharmacies and Walmart.

Their revenue for the first quarter of 2014 was $0.4 million (or 46% of what they had in all of last year). They had so much demand that their gross margin fell from over 70% to 25%. (This is to be expected as filling huge amounts of unexpected demand can mean paying overtime, hiring temps, outsourcing production, airfreighting instead of shipping by boat etc.) They lost a penny a share. The second quarter will be bigger, and they’ll continue to lose money. Revenue for the year should at least double. Maybe triple?

They may never make any money. This investment may go to zero, in which case my totals for the year will be 0.28% lower than they would have been. But if they hit, I may make a couple of percent. Obviously, this is not my typical kind of stock. It’s a sheer speculation, which is why my position is so small. I’m buying it because the product suddenly seems to have caught on, but it could die just as fast. If anyone is from Hawaii and has tried it, please let us know. My average buying price was 62 to 64 cents. There’s plenty of volume for taking a small position.

Saul

Here are the notes I made for myself:

Apr 2014
Retail Successes: ?Toward the end of 2013, KonaRed beverages could be found in more than 540 retail locations throughout North America. Additionally, its 100% Hawaiian CoffeeBerry, beverage continued to be used as a branded ingredient in all 32 Jamba Juice locations in Hawaii.

In early January 2014, KonaRed Organic Green Tea was introduced to consumers in 59 ABC Store locations in Hawaii. Those 59 retail outlets also added KonaRed Original to their beverage shelves.

In mid-January, all four commissaries operated by the Defense Dept (in Hawaii?) began selling KonaRed Green Tea and KonaRed Original enabling KonaRed to surpass 600 retail locations within the first weeks of January.

Less than 30 days later, KonaRed expanded its presence in Canada, as it became available in more than 80 Save-On-Foods stores (owned by the Overwaitea Food Group). In mid-March, the Company announced that it had added even more Overwaitea Food Group-owned stores, surpassing 100 retail locations.

Three days later, KonaRed Original became available in more than 2,100 Walmart stores as the Company exceeded 2,800 retail locations.

Distributor Successes:? - During the first week of January, KonaRed announced that it had entered into an agreement with Splash Beverage Group to sell and distribute KonaRed’s products throughout the United States.

During February, the Company announced that it added Nevada’s premier leading wine, beer, spirits and beverage distribution company, Southern Wine & Spirits, to its distribution network to cover Nevada.

The Company also added Blue Coast Beverages and Great State Beverages to cover areas in Boston and New Hampshire, respectively.

Additionally, during February, Haralambos Beverage Company, which services more than 10,000 retail and customer accounts in Los Angeles, San Bernadino, Kern, Riverside, and Orange Counties, and Central Beverage Company, which services more than 3,500 retailers in the eight-county Chicago metro area became distributors of KonaRed’s beverages.

In early March, KonaRed renewed its distribution agreement with Paradise Beverages for KonaRed Original and KonaRed Organic Green Tea for retailers throughout Hawaii, including Whole Foods, Walmart, Foodland, and 7-Eleven, among many others.

"We are pleased with the accomplishments we made during the first three months of 2014. Our growth from roughly 540 retail locations in 2013 to more than 2,800 currently represents an increase of more than 500%. We aim to improve upon these numbers and place our line of Hawaiian CoffeeBerry, coffee fruit products from Kona, Hawaii, in front of as many consumers as possible.

Apr 2014 - announced strong growth in sales during the first quarter of 2014.

Product sales for the first quarter increased by 106% to $413,000 versus $201,000 for the same period a year ago.

The sales were up sequentially over 400% from $77,000. Additionally, our first quarter sales were 46% of our total product sales of $890,000 for all of 2013.

“We’re pleased with our sales numbers during the first quarter of 2014. Our efforts to get our products in front of consumers are working. Successes in the last six months have included acquiring Walmart and Speedee Mart as major clients and we aim to capitalize on our sales momentum in the second quarter.”

Going forward, our goals are to continue sales expansion and translate sales growth into profitability by further tightening costs controls.”

Comparatively, due primarily to additional costs associated with our quick sales growth, cost-of-goods-sold for Q1 were way up, and our gross margin decreased to 25%, versus 71% in the same quarter last year.

The Company’s net loss for Q1 2014 is estimated to be approximately $(995,000), or $(0.02) per share, versus $149,848, or $nil per share for Q1 2013. Adjusted loss, excluding non-cash options grant expenses, the net loss for QI 2014 decreases to $(393,566), or $(0.01) per share. A total of 750,000 options were granted to a director during the quarter and these options vested immediately. The options have a 5-year term and are exercisable at $0.81 per share.

Apr 2014 - Announced that its new On-the-Go Packs and 100% Hawaiian CoffeeBerry® Powder in a Tub is being added to the shelves of four popular retail chains in Hawaii including CVS/Longs, Times Supermarkets, Don Quijote, and Marukai Markets.

The addition of this strong group of retailers is an excellent start for our new line of nutritional products which are yet another way to bring the health attributes of Hawaiian CoffeeBerry coffee fruit to the public.

KonaRed’s On-the-Go-Packs and powders are 100% soluble powders that can be mixed with water or juice or added to a smoothie for extra antioxidants.

CVS/Longs is part of the largest pharmacy chain in the U.S. Times Supermarkets is one of the leading supermarket operations in Hawaii, with 24 locations. Don Quijote is a chain store that carries a wide range of products. Marukai Corporation was the first Japanese retailer to offer wholesale prices and membership system. It has experienced tremendous success, which has helped it expand to California and Hawaii and more than 160,000 U.S. members.

6 Likes

I’m amazed that no one has commented on this new position. I expected a “You’re out of your mind to buy that!”, or, from someone who read down through all the new distribution they picked up, “Wow! What an interesting little idea!” … But nothing? I guess it’s only interesting to me. (Which is fine).

Saul

Saul,

I quickly read through your post. Sounded interesting although clearly pretty speculative. I wanted more information and plan to ask my Hawaii friends for opinion, but it’s three hours earlier there than here and really at some point I should get to work.

Don’t think your postings go un-noticed. It’s like the old EF Hutton ad, you talk and the room goes quiet, while we all (surreptitiously for some)listen. Please keep posting, even your wilder ideas, they’re all really appreciated.

Dr. D

7 Likes

I expected a “You’re out of your mind to buy that!”, or, from someone who read down through all the new distribution they picked up, “Wow! What an interesting little idea!” … But nothing? I guess it’s only interesting to me. (Which is fine).

Yes it’s speculative. I suspect you bought your position as a placeholder so it will force you to follow it. To better evaluate the potential, I’d look at their capacity (do they grow their own coffee beans and if so what’s their production limit; if they get more business, how will they get more coffee; buying land in Hawaii is very expensive; my point is you’ll want to factor in CapEx if the business really takes off). It’s not for me but good luck.

I have a story about a coffee company. More than 10 years ago (I think it was 2001), I was about to board a flight and bought a business magazine in the airport bookstore. It had America’s 50 fastest growing businesses featured in it. I read about these 50 companies on my flight and ended up buying stock in 3 of them. One of them was a little company in Vermont called Green Mountain Coffee Roaster. It ended up being my best returning stock with a 50+x return.

Saul;

I read most of your posts. I was spending the past 1.5 hours browsing Kona’s web site and read some press releases.

I noticed that the company web site didn’t list its officers and board directors or may be I missed them. Also just a few years ago (2010?) the industry discovered coffee berry borer in Hawaii. Not sure how that may or may not impact the supply. Additionally, can anyone get into the business – does seem to me there is a moat. But the distribution channel is developing very rapidly and so rapidly that I got a strange feeling that it is too good to be true. But again they may have been working on them for a long time. Still digging.

-M

1 Like

I’m amazed that no one has commented on this new position. I expected a “You’re out of your mind to buy that!”, or, from someone who read down through all the new distribution they picked up, “Wow! What an interesting little idea!” … But nothing? I guess it’s only interesting to me. (Which is fine).

Saul

Saul,
I thought I responded but if not here I go. I loved the concept of healthy drinks and coffee is one of the healthiest so when I saw your recommendation on this one KRED I went ahead and opened a small position also. In fact, I believe I was the one who depressed the stock by one penny today.

I really don’t see much downside, after looking at their price performance and as long as they are not crooks, we should be in for a lift in time. Whether it’s a long term hold will be decided later.
Thanks for the lead. Do you know anything about management?
Mykie
PS I noticed you like the big revenue gainers and I’m thinking if you catch a stock like that early enough, you can make some money whether it becomes a portfolio stalwart or a flash in the pan. What I particularly liked about KRED is the companies they are doing business with. Very active and mostly great brand names…shows market smarts I would say.

2 Likes

I do not know about everyone else, but I can go days or weeks without getting caught up on boards. So do take a non immediate response as lack of interest, just busy lives…

I did want to thank you for your list of stock that you were buying, and prices a while back. I caught up with that and was able to pick up several of your stocks, and some others. I bough CALL, AVAV, GOOG, CELG, SZYM, APPY, POST, GILD, AMZN and AAPL in April.

We are in the listening mode Saul. Need to do some research of our own before writing back. They do have some good retail brands now and thats definitely encouraging. It still remains in the very speculative camp though. Lets dig more guys.

I read part of their 10K. It is a very young company and had less than a dozen full time employees by end of 2013. The stocks were controlled by a few insiders also.

It outsources almost all its manufacturing/production activities with the exception of the original extraction, warehousing and shipping of final products.

They signed exclusive supply agreements with coffee producers and as long as they are buying the raw material from the coffee producers, the latter are obligated to provide. Additionally, Konared believes that coffee berry, which used to be a thrown-away, is readily available and they do not see a supply problem in the foreseeable future.

They were sued a few years ago for patent dispute by VDF FutureCeuticals Inc. - owner of the patent-protected CoffeeBerry® coffee fruit technology. Early this year both parties settled by entering into a partnership, in which VDF can earn an equity interest in KonaRed and will earn licensing fees from KonaRed sales.

Sales strategy
sales expansion priorities comprise: (1) expansion of wholesale distribution; (2) retail chain success; (3) growth of direct to retail sales; (4) growth of direct to consumer sales; and (5) growth of raw materials sales.

Very aggressive Milestones for 2014
Three Months
Execute distribution contract for nationwide United States distribution in three of our five distribution channels.
Launch 10 additional new DSD distributors.
Ship to one additional major retail customer (defined as 500 locations or more) through a ship direct distribution relationship.
Expand into one additional major market with a broadline distributor using a natural channel distributor such as DPI, Nature’s Best, UNFI or KeHe Distributors (“KeHe”).
Launch two new consumer beverages including KonaRed Coconut Water and KonaRed Green Tea.
Conduct market research on can packaging for KonaRed consumer beverages.

Six Months
(in addition to aforementioned objectives)
Launch 10 additional new DSD distributors.
Ship to one additional major retail customer (defined as 500 locations or more) through a ship direct distribution relationship.
Expand into one additional major market with a broadline distributor using a natural channel distributor such as DPI, Nature’s Best, UNFI or KeHe.
Launch two new consumer KonaRed products including ‘on the go packs’ and 100 percent water soluble coffee fruit powder.

Nine Months
(in addition to aforementioned objectives)
Launch 10 additional new DSD distributors.
Ship to one additional major retail customer (defined as 500 locations or more) through a ship direct distribution relationship.
Expand into one additional major market with a broadline distributor using a natural channel distributor such as DPI, Nature’s Best, UNFI or KeHe.
Ship re-orders on DSD distributors signed in the first quarter.
Harvest 2014 coffee fruit crop and prepare for distribution of our raw materials ingredients sales.

Twelve Months
(in addition to aforementioned objectives)
Launch 10 additional new DSD distributors.
Ship to one additional major retail customer (defined as 500 locations or more) through a ship direct distribution relationship.
Expand into one additional major market with a broadline distributor using a natural channel distributor such as DPI, Nature’s Best, UNFI or KeHe.
Ship re-orders on DSD distributors signed in the second quarter.
Continue efforts to expand our raw materials ingredients sales.

Need additional funds
“Specifically, we anticipate that we will require approximately $1.1 million in 2014, $1.3 million in 2015 and $1.5 million in 2016 in order to achieve our revenue goals.”

Big shareholders
Sandwich Islesowns 59.97%
Shaun and Dana Roberts collectively own 22.39%
Steven M. and Hamiel Schorr collectively own 22.22%

So overall impression:
negative
very small (fragile?)
Not much protection or moat
compete in a highly competitive beverage market with big guys
Stocks concentrated in the hands of a very few people
Need to raise funds

positive
Rapidly expanding retail/distribution footprint
good/interesting product
takeover target?

You can buy the products from Amazon
-M

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They signed exclusive supply agreements with coffee producers

Sorry. I meant to say coffee plant grower.

-M

Hi Saul,

People seem to really like the product. Looked through comments on Facebook and there’s clear demand to broaden availability.

Naturally, since it comes from Hawaii it has a hip vibe and I suspect there is also a subconscious connection people make to RedBull; the benefit of the latter being that they might perceive it as being a healthy alternative (since they KR promotes alertness). So that’s all positive, and a way to deepen market penetration.

It also occurred to me that Starbucks has “Refreshers,” which may or may not be made of the same stuff but both are coffee-based juices. They’re tasty and appear to be well received so I think bodes well for KonaRed.

That said, I agree with another poster’s view that they don’t have much of a moat - e.g., HonestTea could easily jump on the bandwagon and go toe-to-toe at the same retailers. But my sense is that KR has a good product and all the right marketing ingredients to get big fast, as evidenced by their most recent quarterly report.

So I’m getting on the wave with a small position and ordering a few bottles.

Thanks for the interesting tip!

  • Khleb

I wanted more information and plan to ask my Hawaii friends for opinion

Dr D

that would be very valuable, especially if it’s more than one friend so you can get a sampling of opinion.

Saul

Yes it’s speculative.

Chris, You’re a master of understatement!

But the distribution channel is developing very rapidly and so rapidly that I got a strange feeling that it is too good to be true.

Hi mview, It may well be!

Saul

I went ahead and opened a small position also…I really don’t see much downside, after looking at their price performance and as long as they are not crooks…

Hi Mykie,

That’s part of why you should keep your position small. It’s hard to tell with a tiny company like this.

Saul

I read part of their 10K.

Mview, what a great bit of research and a terrific post. Thanks so much!

Saul

People seem to really like the product. Looked through comments on Facebook and there’s clear demand to broaden availability.

Thanks Khleb, That’s helpful. Just keep your position small and realize that it could go to zero.

Saul

A previous intern of mine (now 28 years old) from Hawaii has never heard of it. Notes however that it does make use of a product that for the most part is discarded as waste. Still waiting to hear from others.

Dr. D

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I hope someone has picked up a little of this stock (KRED). I started this thread on 4/24 when it was 64 cents. Since then the close got to 65 cents as a high and then to 62 cents as a low on the first of May. Then it started moving up. I added a little along the way, but this week it went wild. I added a little at 67 cents, 69.8 cents, 71 cents, 72 cents, 73.2 cents, 73 cents, and today at 74.5 cents. Right now, half way between the bid and asked is 76.5 cents. I think what made the stock run is the news I posted a day or two ago, about the new COO who had been in charge of the Western Region for Best Buy. I think this was a big deal for investor confidence. Announcing that they signed up Vitamin Shoppe in the same week didn’t hurt. (I’m up to about a 0.6% position).

Saul

Thanks Saul. I did pick some but would like to add more in the near future. Its just .58% of my portfolio as of today.