I’m curious as to what the portfolio growth numbers that are being divulged represent. Are these numbers from total investable assets or are there a part of assets not counted? For example --Someone has 50% of assets in Index funds-25% in Treasuries and 25% in a stock portfolio? Are these percentage gains on the 25% stock portfolio or on all of the 100% asset valuation?
Respectfully Submitted
b&w
Mine are only from the portion that are in the “Saul” port.
Have many times more in my 401k, in ETFs and about 3 times the “Saul” port in my "“Blue Chip” port. It is mostly cash. This “Blue Chip” port is cash because we simply do not have the time to properly investigate and invest in companies.
Also, I have been very tempted to emulate the “Buy and Win” method you have revealed on the Dividend board. I found the explaination of the “Return of Capital” in MLPs very informative.
Thanks
and
Cheers
Qazulight (This Spiced Rum isn’t bad, but my fitness coach is going to kill me.)
For me the 87.6% YTD return is on my stock only accounts which are about half of my investable assets. The other half is in index funds and a few mutual funds in my and my wife’s 401k that have limited investing options.
I am pretty new to the board and still learning a ton about managing my own money. I just joined MF about 2 years ago and found this board maybe 1 to 1.5 years ago. So much awesome information. Thanks to everyone for your input.
I am still slowly changing my portfolio to reflect what I have learned. I am only up 38% not too great compared to you experts, but overall I am very happy and I believe I am beating my index funds.
SHOP 16%
NVDA 13%
FB 11%
TJX 10%
ARNC 9%
UBNT 8%
LOW 8%
ANET 7%
TTD 5%
TWLO 4%
SSW 4%
APA 3%
This is only 5% of my retirement money as 95% of it is still in index funds, I still don’t trust myself, but maybe someday.
Gazulight says:
Mine are only from the portion that are in the “Saul” port.
Have many times more in my 401k, in ETFs and about 3 times the “Saul” port in my "“Blue Chip” port. It is mostly cash. This “Blue Chip” port is cash because we simply do not have the time to properly investigate and invest in companies.<<<<
It appears that you are using incomplete numbers. It is always easier to use smaller numbers than the whole. The smaller numbers leave the balance in safety and not at risk so you can take greater risks without fear of losing on the separate account. Giving fancy names to different assets and not counting them as being at risk is not proper accounting. I’m not saying you should put more money at risk. I am saying that if you want to give percentage gains or losses, you probably should give the percentage of your assets you have at risk. It’s a big difference if you say you own 15% of XYZ in your portfolio—But if the portfolio you are talking about is only 10% of your investable assets that XYZ position is only 1.5% of your entire portfolio and don’t mean much.
Respectfully submitted
b&w
I’m up 30%, but that is everything I own including stocks, mutual funds, and spending money.
So yes, I’ll take it.
Jeb
Same here about the trust.
If I am going to be my investment manager, I want to see a track record of returns.
Cheers
Qazulight
2020 Investor Writes
For me the 87.6% YTD return is on my stock only accounts which are about half of my investable assets. The other half is in index funds and a few mutual funds in my and my wife’s 401k that have limited investing options
So it appears that your 87.6% YTD return is actually about 43.8% Which is very respectable and you should be proud of—But it isn’t 87.6% of your assets. How much did you earn on the other 50%? The index funds -the mutual funds and your wife’s 401K Average those number in to see what you really made.
Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger said many times—If they only had $5M to invest they could make millions more—The problem is they don’t have $5M to invest they have $400 Billion Dollars to invest. That’s a whole big different game
b&w
Buy and Win,
The “Saul” port is a test, or try out port. I do not trust myself to be a great investment manager. If I were to use your methods, I still would only put a small portion into them until I was sure.
On the other hand, if I were using your methods, would you want me to report returned based on three ETFs out of the 10 that were given me by a 401k director?
Of course not!
As I gain skill and experience I expect that I will add funds from different Ports to the “Saul” Port. I am in a bit of a quandary as I do not know how I will handle a cyclical bear market. (My MACRO models indicate we are now in the early stages of a secular bull market)
As it is, my “Saul” port has returned 50 percent in the last 7 months with a a lot of cash on the sideline. To be clear, the very high risk KITE trade helped and the accidental VFFIF didn’t hurt either.
Cheers
Qazulight
The “Saul” port is a test, or try out port. I do not trust myself to be a great investment manager. If I were to use your methods, I still would only put a small portion into them until I was sure.
I’m not saying you should put more money or less money into anything—What I am saying is don’t get blinded by the large numbers until you know what the numbers mean. You say you don’t trust yourself yet because you aren’t sure. I’m saying the only reason you are putting a small portion of your money in is because it is a small portion and the balance is safely tucked away elsewhere. To get a true “return” figure you have to measure it against your entire investable assets. otherwise just pick the highest return stock, disregard the others like the rest of your entire portfolio and say that’s my return.
Respectfully submitted
b&w
FWIW, I’m up (only!) 52.2% YTD, including everything except my house. My portfolio over the course of the year has been roughly 50% ‘Saul stocks,’ 40% mostly other Stock Advisor type stocks, and 10% VSS/VEU (non-USA ETFs, which are up 25% each, and hilariously bringing my overall performance down). I also have a self-imposed guideline that I don’t invest more than 5% of my retirement in a particular security, though I’m happy to let it run well past 5% as it grows.
I’m 47 years old and have 38% of my retirement goal met. It’s mostly in IRAs and a little in 401Ks. It’s been a very good year.
Currently:
10% SHOP
8% ANET
8% SQ
7% NVDA
5% LGIH
5% AMZN
4% HUBS
4% TLND
4% FB
4% VSS
4% VEU
4% AAPL
3% NFLX
3% XPO
3% SWKS
3% MA
3% UBNT
2% CELG
2% TTD
2% PCLN
2% NTNX
<2% 8 other small positions
In hindsight I’d love to have closer to 80% returns YTD, yes, but opted for some additional diversification. Despite the gap this year, not sure I’ll make a big strategic change in 2018. Maybe. It bears consideration over the holidays.
Huge thanks to Saul and all - for this fantastic community. Cheers.
Hi b&w,
Not sure how everyone else is reporting their holdings, but for me, the 91% growth I reported for 2017 represents my total portfolio. I haven’t had a mutual fund for 20+ years, and I have never held a bond or treasury note. It’s taken me 30 years to feel comfortable enough to keep my portfolio lean and concentrated, with much thanks to Saul and the knowledge gained from this board. Two years ago, I had 32 stocks. Today I have 14 and that’s about as high as I like to go.
I do keep as anchors, some of my long term companies that are not as fast growing as newer positions. Much like some people use bonds or funds for safety. My long term holdings of SBUX, AAPL, NFLX, and FB give me a general peace of mind. And I follow the others very closely so I feel pretty secure in them, too. The moment I don’t, that company is gone. Another lesson I learned here. Never be afraid to sell.
Holding those ‘slow growing’ anchor stocks still resulted in a 91% year so far. And I sleep well at night. Not bad!
Best,
Vivienne
I have three investment accounts: A taxable trust, a traditional IRA and a Roth IRA. I have no other investment funds whatsoever. I do have four bank accounts which are used to manage my living expenses.
This year I was subject to MRD in my traditional IRA investment account.
When I reported that I was up 97% for the year it was the sum total of all three investment accounts (including any cash balance) and adjusted for the MRD in my traditional IRA. The 97% was measured against the value of from market open on the first trading day of January through and including closing on November 24.
Individually my separate account performance has been as follows:
Trust, up 98%
Trad IRA, up 106% (adjusted for MRD)
Roth IRA, up 92%
The three accounts are very similar in composition, but obviously not identical.
b&w may have revealed something surprising. I assumed individuals here were always adhering to the logical convention of reporting the return of their complete portfolio; it would be beyond disingenuous to do otherwise.
Maybe such economies with the truth mean my continual astonishment at the risks run here by what are clearly inexperienced investors, in terms of vast reported percentage portfolio allocations to individual companies in one sub-sector (some without profits) may have been misplaced. Hope so!
Despite a continual cash position of 18-29% throughout, I have nevertheless soundly beaten the madly-aggressive S&P 500 index, supercharged on liquidity, over the last year. Currency played a part.
This leaves me very well content but wary at the risk I have taken on. I would be truly appalled if my whole portfolio had returned over 70% for the year. Imagine telling your adult children that and the inference they would rightly draw!
So how about this for a plan: leave cash balance intact; continue to ride the tiger but with strict, if in some cases generous desk-top trailing stop-loss figures; however, reinvest any sale proceeds with the aim of achieving 3 x the yield of the US 10-year Treasury in the next year (about 7% currently) or more than inflation (whatever it may be), whichever is the higher. Those investments may include companies of the highest quality of balance sheets and fundamentals and history of growth but always bearing in mind the maxim ‘sales are vanity, profits are sanity’.
Here on this board, the question is academic only. I just throw in this personal musing!
I also have a small Roth account, about 1.5% of my total investment portfolio. It has gained something but I have not calculated or included it in my previous posting. So, 74.5% is just about all of my investment assets.
I never expected to do this well this year or next if ever but this is where I am right now.
andy
74.5% is now lower as SQ is down pre-market
andy
Hi Chris
FWIW, I’m up (only!) 52.2% YTD, including everything except my house. My portfolio over the course of the year has been roughly 50% ‘Saul stocks,’ 40% mostly other Stock Advisor type stocks, and 10% VSS/VEU (non-USA ETFs, which are up 25% each, and hilariously bringing my overall performance down).
Good job 52.2% is great. You also understand that other portions of your portfolio are dragging the overall performance down. Some people might not. And it definitely isn’t hilarious
b&w
Well,
I for one don’t even trust me. I managed to lose 75 percent of my IRA in the 2008 crash. It didn’t bounce back because the solid companies I was invested in went bankrupt.
AIG anyone?
So, the wealty I have accumulated since is very closely guarded. Guarded from myself as well as others.
Even the small sum at risk in the “Saul” port requires consensus for purchase. Although, it is agreed that going to cash can be done by anyone at anytime without recrimination.
This happened with LGIH after Harvey. Yes we left 40 to 50 percent profits on the table. Don’t care. Its gone.
Same in my 401k. T is gone.
My wife took losses in Conaco. I told her in the fall of 2014. Sell it now, or plan on holding losses for a long time. She held. Sold a while back at a loss.
Her pain has helped. If either of us sees a change in the investment thesis. Either can pull the trigger to go to cash, but both have to agree to take a position.
Also, trying to work out profits with a 401k with bi weekly contributions and an 80 percent match would be daunting.
Add in trying to “market to market” a rental unit and the whole portfolio report starts to look like some kind of “mark to fantasy” bankster nightmare.
Thus, here I report what I have done with the information I gleaned here.
Cheers
Qazulight