www.dailysignal.com/2022/09/01/europes-industrial-might-is-c…
“It’s not good news,” German Economic Minister Robert Habeck said Wednesday of his country’s plight. “[I]t can mean that the industries in question aren’t just being restructured but are experiencing a rupture—a structural rupture, one that is happening under enormous pressure.”
This rupturing of industry is being felt across Europe. Europe’s already lost at least half its ammonia production and one-third of its nitrogen fertilizer production due to sky-high gas prices, according to industry analysts. Ammonia and nitrogen fertilizer are both derived from natural gas using the Haber-Bosch process. Likewise, Reuters estimates roughly half of Europe’s aluminum and zinc smelters have shut down.
The European public is only going to get angrier at Russia and Putin.
That means Germany and France may send more weapon systems to Ukraine to help end the war. Spelling the end of a disgraced Putin at home.
The Germans are already hugely increasing their military budget.
The western cartel may cherry pick how many ships it insurers for the Russian oil and LNG. Meaning Russian exports to China and India may be cut. That would be a later move. First cut the price.
The world will carry any burden here. Russia will be put down like a rabid dog. The sooner the better.
Putin’s party will set him aside. May be not slaughter him physically.
The US may go on a cyber offensive against Russia this winter. The reason being to cut their household electric, communications, and heating systems. To also cut their industrial output. But such a cyber war might be very subtle in that by cherry picking certain defense manufacturing plants far more can be done.
With the global moves among hackers to bring Russia down there would be no real finger prints that the US government has totally screwed over Russian war efforts.
Europe can give money to mercenaries to fight in Russia. Sabotaging major targets in Russia.
But the bigger thing the west can do at any time is take Putin out completely. If the EU suffers too much here that becomes tantamount to the destruction of a nuclear strike. There never was of course any Russian rational for any of this war etc…Putin’s death would restore things. This push and shove over NG to the EU can be the death of Putin. He is becoming a German/French/UK target. He is totally reachable to them.
What Leap proposes is an existential threat to Russia and its government and would create the essence of, at best, a pan-European war, but most likely a world war. The limited contest currently taking place is, according to the article, causing Western Europe great angst, but an active war with Russia, despite Leap’s belief that it has no significant military teeth, especially if any deficiency is compensated for by battlefield level tactical nuclear weapons, would cause terrifying hardship.
I am of the belief that it is more likely, that unless Ukraine demonstrates that it has the ability to actually win this conflict, Europe forces Ukraine to actively negotiate an end to the active conflict (where the best case scenario would likely be ceding Crimea to Russia and a return to the pre-conflict borders.
Otherwise, the premise is that most of Western Europe is willing to go into recession; pay down their savings as well as go cold and hungry for a winter in order for the Ukraine government to continue to s.log it out with Russia in a war of attrition.
In order to strip out the propaganda from both sides, it is helpful to look at the current status of the battle map.
I did not delineate how to take out Putin. For instance pumping poison into an air vent that he has to breath from. The Russian public never to know exactly who killed Putin would blame their own. The Germans, French or UK would never need to take the credit. The Russian elite would be very happy to steer Russia onto a very different course and back to more normalized relations with the global community.
The cutting off of NG to the EU may well force such a move. Directly letting off a nuclear weapon anywhere by the Russians must necessitate that move exactly. The cutting off of the NG will be equivalent. The idea that Russia is suffering is a non starter. That is a big so what? Russia needs to find her way out of her own crap.
I am of the belief that it is more likely, that unless Ukraine demonstrates that it has the ability to actually win this conflict, Europe forces Ukraine to actively negotiate an end to the active conflict (where the best case scenario would likely be ceding Crimea to Russia and a return to the pre-conflict borders.
IMHO such an outcome would pretty much guarantee that Russia would start another war within ten years, probably against Ukraine. Then we’d hear people suggesting a negotiated peace where Ukraine only gives up the Donbas region… and within a few years after that Russia would start another war…
IMHO such an outcome would pretty much guarantee that Russia would start another war within ten years, probably against Ukraine. Then we’d hear people suggesting a negotiated peace where Ukraine only gives up the Donbas region… and within a few years after that Russia would start another war…
Not likely.
Russia can’t afford this war, and they cannot afford another. The resources they have captured are going to lose value as time goes by.
See the population pyramid for Russia and its fertility rate. Russia is just a huge nothing burger.
Otherwise, the premise is that most of Western Europe is willing to go into recession; pay down their savings as well as go cold and hungry for a winter in order for the Ukraine government to continue to s.log it out with Russia in a war of attrition.
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LOL! More Russian propaganda from a non-European who does not understand Europe.
East, Central and West Europe will not go cold and hungry this winter. Look at Russia and Belarus population 155 million versus rest of Europe at 600 million.
There are two main reasons why the West has gone down this particular path:
Ukraine is not NATO.
Russia has nukes.
To say that the EU will go to war with Russia in order to stave off high energy costs, I’m not convinced of that. I’m in the “make Ukraine give concession” camp. I could be wrong. But for EU to wage war they have to be convinced that Russia does not start launching nuclear weapons. Very, very sure.
Tell that to the Ukrainians who have lost their homes and livelihoods and family members in the ongoing fighting.
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How about telling 80,000 Russian mothers that their sons and daughters in the Army were killed by Ukrainians.
Russian soldiers are not so good at combat - Russians are only good at lobbing rockets, missiles, bombs and artillery at Ukrainian civilians and their apartment buildings, schools, hospitals, train stations, theaters and other non-military targets.
Russia can’t afford this war, and they cannot afford another.
Qaz,
The Russian government has no comprehension of economics. Never has under any leadership at all.
The lack of affordability is a reason to control the population by insisting they obey orders and get killed.
There will never be a full peace with Russia. But setting them back gives us more time with some peace. Peace in the west becomes wealth.
The idea Russia gets a decent outcome makes no difference to putin. Meaning it wont settle for a compromise. That is not the endgame for putin. That is purely some sort of assumption by some here. Yes Putin has talked peace…the most meaningless thing to even come from him.
There is no peaceful outcome. Unless putin is set aside or killed.
The battle map does not show the following issues:
Russian forces are suffering from “morale and discipline issues” in addition to combat fatigue and high casualties, the UK Ministry of Defence says.
A main grievance from troops probably continued to be around pay, including the high chance that “sizeable combat bonuses” were not being paid, the latest British intelligence update said.
At least some “outright corruption” among commanders was probably involved, as well as an “inefficient military bureaucracy”, it said.
The Russian military has consistently failed to provide basic entitlements to troops deployed in Ukraine, including appropriate uniform, arms and rations as well as pay. This has almost certainly contributed to the continued fragile morale of much of the force.
I am of the belief that it is more likely, that unless Ukraine demonstrates that it has the ability to actually win this conflict, Europe forces Ukraine to actively negotiate an end to the active conflict (where the best case scenario would likely be ceding Crimea to Russia and a return to the pre-conflict borders.
Otherwise, the premise is that most of Western Europe is willing to go into recession; pay down their savings as well as go cold and hungry for a winter in order for the Ukraine government to continue to s.log it out with Russia in a war of attrition.
In order to strip out the propaganda from both sides, it is helpful to look at the current status of the battle map.
That’s possible (negotiated peace) but the clear lesson is that Europe cannot rely on Russia for energy. It is unlikely that any negotiated peace would occur before winter anyway. Europe is stuck with what they have got for now. So might as well continue to degrade Putin.
If you look at the battle map, Russia has made virtually no progress since July despite having a much better equipped army. By contrast, Ukraine has been making incremental progress in the south in the last few weeks. I wouldn’t say Ukraine is winning, but she isn’t losing.
well strip out US EU NATO support and expect Crimea to remain Russian…
Ukraine for whatever reasons has the larger army of willing to absolutely kill your Russian momas’ babies and better modern equipment in the field that poor old victimized Russia.
Whose been telling the half truths? It does not matter Russia’s been telling no truths.
The part the map didn’t show is that Russian military objectives hadn’t actually been met, in that Russia hasn’t been able to control all of the areas it seized.
There is an old axiom: First reports are always wrong. So don’t believe any single report you see, especially early reports, but you can believe a preponderance of reports.