Aah, the great debate about SNOW continues…
Are they melting?
Are they sandbagging?
Why are they so “expensive”?
What now? They are helping their customers spend less by improving their product?
I love France and Canada, btw…in that order.
With two scotches in my belly, I grabbed a napkin from the bar and did some quick 2nd grade math. Here is what I came up with…please, excuse any alcohol induced mistakes.
NOTE: All numbers below are focused on product revenue. Services revenue is like a 6.25% mosquito bite on the income statement. After six confusing quarterly earnings report, Frank has trained us monkeys that its product, product, product!
Hold on…I am thirsty…need a sip of the sweet Scottish nectar…
RPO total = $2,646M
52% of this is expected to be recognized as revenue in the next 12 months = $1,376M
Current DBNRR = 178%. Slootman says it will not go below 150% at least for the next year.
At 150% DBNRR, annual revenues could be 1376 x 1.5 = $2,064M
At 170% DBNRR, annual revenues could be 1376 x 1.7 = $2,339M
The midpoint of these two revenue projections = $2,202
Subtracting the $97M efficiency revenue impact to customer usage, we get $2,105
FY guidance = $1,900M
Beat could be $2,105 - $1,900 = $205M which is 11%
In Q1 2021, they guided annual revenues at $1,020M.
Final full year beat was $1,142 - $1,020 = $122M…which is…wait for it…12%
Dang, Slootman and his crew are a sly bunch. Their 11-12% game is up!
P.S. I am long SNOW.