Abiomed Outlines Long-Term Growth Strategy ...

Sounds exciting…

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/abiomed-outlines-long-term-gro…

May provide clearer insight into addressable market in the near term (5 years). Also from sounds of it product descriptions help enforce the view that addressable market may be large and slightly more diverse than has been discussed here.

I am a cardiovascular physiologist by training and to me it seems that the products developed by ABMD will provide good bridge support to possibly increase the addressable patient population for various interventions or at minimum may provide better outcomes in select patient populations by reducing the stress of procedures on already weakened hearts.

This presentation may help raise awareness and possibly help the stock, which does have some momentum right now…

Been lurking here for the last year or so. Recently invested in ABMD based on discussions provided here. Trying to give back a little something.

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I am a cardiovascular physiologist by training and to me it seems that the products developed by ABMD will provide good bridge support to possibly increase the addressable patient population for various interventions or at minimum may provide better outcomes in select patient populations by reducing the stress of procedures on already weakened hearts.

Hi KM1973,

As an engineer, these products sound great. However, many products sound great and I had some concerns about what the medical community thinks. Thank you very much for the feedback!

Cheers,
Chris

The press release.
Saul

Abiomed Outlines Long-Term Growth Strategy and Unveils Future Products at Annual Investor Conference

DANVERS, Mass., Aug. 11, 2015 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) – Abiomed, Inc. (ABMD), a leadingprovider of breakthrough heart support technologies, will present the Company’s long-term growth strategy and five- year vision for Impella® revenues during its annual investor conference today in Boston. The meeting will also include projected patient figures for the high-risk percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) market, describe a new patient population of interest, and introduce future Impella products in the pipeline for heart failure, along with scientific and case presentations from leading physicians.

During the conference, Michael R. Minogue, Abiomed president, chairman and chief executive officer, and members of Abiomed’s management team will present the company’s long-range business plan with details on future product approvals, the size of relevant patient populations and the estimated Impella adoption rates for each patient group, and discuss marketing goals and objectives following the Protected PCI launch.

Among the specific topics to be presented at today’s event include:

Treating Higher Risk Patients: Leading physicians will present their experiences with Impella in both the surgical and catheterization lab settings, including a review of the recent TCTMD educational video on Protected PCI. Presentations will be given by: Mark Anderson, M.D., John Lasala, M.D., Jeffrey Moses, M.D., and George Vetrovec, M.D.

Impella in the Post-PMA Era: Management will present an in-depth look at the patient populations, market, and potential opportunity for Impella. Some of those markets include:

Protected PCI patients – Abiomed estimates the urgent and elective high risk PCI patient population as a 121,000 annual patient opportunity. With future PMA approvals, the emergent patient population remains at 100,000 patients. During this presentation, Abiomed management will elaborate on several of the new marketing efforts used to drive elective and urgent Protected PCI utilization.

Chronic care patients – Abiomed is expanding its development focus to chronic care patients, centering on patient ambulation and mobilization, as well as new technologies. Abiomed continues to focus its efforts on native heart recovery and remodeling with intent to explant as a cost-effective strategy that promotes quality of life.

Impella New Product Pipeline and Opportunity: Management will review the pipeline and next-generation devices, including:

Impella Expandable Cardiac Power or “ECP”: The ECP pump is designed for blood flow of >3 liters/minute. It is intended to be delivered on the standard Impella 9 Fr catheter and will include an 18 Fr expandable inflow in the left ventricle only with a smooth, clear, polyurethane membrane crossing the left ventricle.

Next Generation Impella CP: The enhanced Impella CP pump is designed to have an increased flow of 4.5 liters/minute with improved inflow design and smart sensor technology. It will be delivered on the standard Impella 9 Fr catheter and 14 Fr pump and is designed to provide support for up to 10 days.

Next Generation Impella 5.0: The “Impella 5.5”: The pump is designed for flow of 5.5 liters per minute. It will be delivered on the standard 9 Fr catheter and includes a 19 Fr pump that is 45% shorter than the current Impella 5.0. This pump is designed for duration of weeks to months.

Impella Bridge to Recovery or “BTR”: The Impella BTR is designed with similar specifications to the Impella 5.5 and is being developed with the intention of permitting patients to be discharged from the hospital with a wearable driver. It is designed to provide support for months to years.

The Five Year Vision for Growth and Financial Revenue Outlook: Management will review the potential opportunities for the new and existing Impella products and will also present a model of its vision for Impella revenues in the five-year time frame. This model will reflect assumptions about the size of the accessible markets, average selling price (ASP) of Impella, and the financial impact of unlocking new patient opportunities. These models indicate a potential of up to $1.2 to $1.8 billion in Impella revenues, and possibly larger with the receipt of future regulatory approvals for treatment of heart failure patients. This revenue potential, in conjunction with operating leverage, will create a vision for a fast growing, 30%+ operating margin, business.

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Saul,

Thank you for sharing the press release - I hadn’t seen it. I really like what I’ve been reading lately about Abiomed. It’s time to take a position.

Thank you,
Chris

These models indicate a potential of up to $1.2 to $1.8 billion in Impella revenues, and possibly larger with the receipt of future regulatory approvals for treatment of heart failure patients. This revenue potential, in conjunction with operating leverage, will create a vision for a fast growing, 30%+ operating margin, business

So they are suggesting that there is a “potential” 6-7 multiple in revenue from their trailing twelve month revenue (with 30% margins).

Their present Price/Sales is 17 so how much of this anticipated growth is already baked into the share price.

But of course there are likely numerous optimistic assumptions in this “modeling” it would be important to listen to this presentation (or transcript when available) to see how they model the revenue.

The wheels of progress can turn slower than the most optimistic models suggest.

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Nicely put, Duma.

What strikes me about much of the ABMD threads is the frequency of the words potential and marketing.

I’m neither a cardiologist nor surgeon, but I work side by side with these guys at a rather large heart failure/lvad/cardiac transplant program. Have talked to a few of them and the overall vibe would be best described as “meh”. While the approvals for new indications are promising, it’s only part of the battle. Most at my center maintain the Impellas advantages over IABP are patient-specific. Of course it could be that my sample is biased towards docs with a lot more experience with IABP, and they might be a bit more refractory to change unless the product met a huge unmet need.

With that said, I have a thirty year history of biotech investing (very little experience with devices) and I always approach these with the question of whether the product was made to fill a huge unmet need or is a product in search of a need. IMO, ABMD fits the latter category, so marketing will be what makes or breaks them.

ABMD has been around since the early '90s with the continuous flow concept. The argument about the merits of pulsatile vs. continuous flow is outside my expertise in cardiac physiology, for sure. Maybe I am guilty of another type of anchoring. That is, I am anchored to a history that may no longer apply.

That said, marketing will be key, and I am in no position to judge ABMDs ability to do so. Obviously, they are very aggressive with it, as that is what prompted the DOJ investigation in the first place.

I will sit this one out, but will be cheering for you guys on the sideline!

Good luck,

Cosmid

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Saul, Thank you for sharing the press release - I hadn’t seen it. I really like what I’ve been reading lately about Abiomed. It’s time to take a position. Thank you,
Chris

Hi Chris, the press release, while very interesting, made me a little uncomfortable. While most companies root for themselves in their press releases, this sounded like a little too much rah rah cheering. Maybe they are just excited about all the possibilities, but still…

Saul

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The argument about the merits of pulsatile vs. continuous flow is outside my expertise in cardiac physiology, for sure.

Although, one can’t help but observe that the underlying system is pulsatile! :slight_smile:

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surprisingly non-pulsatile (continuous) LVADs have become the standard as opposed to the pulsatile LVADs… outcomes appear better with the non-pulsatile type as well. We know pulsatility in the circulation is “good” so this likely means that we just haven’t figured out how to do pulsatile well enough for these pumps at this point… the pulsatile pumps have more parts to fail… So for now simple is winning the race…

Cosmid, do you work primarily with cardiothoracic surgeons, cardiologists, or both? Or more specifically, which group has been less receptive to the new devices when compared with the IABP?

Hi Chris, the press release, while very interesting, made me a little uncomfortable. While most companies root for themselves in their press releases, this sounded like a little too much rah rah cheering. Maybe they are just excited about all the possibilities, but still…

Saul

Hi Saul,

I purchased a starter position (1.2%) in ABMD this morning based on reviewing the earlier posts/threads (such as 10409, 10693, 10813, 10885, 10917), the numbers (Thank you Kevin for the spreadsheet!), and finally the press release. Yes, the press release seems like cheer leading but I do want management to be excited about their products/business. The question is when does it become over the top? Of course, we’ll see ABMD does in the coming quarters. Then, I’ll decide whether to add to the position or let it expand or shrink on its own.

Thank you,
Chris

hi again Chris, My position has certainly treated me well, beyond my expectations!

Saul

IRDoc,

I work with both, and I can’t easily subdivide opinion based on practice. There seems to be a pattern with some of the more established non-interventional guys who believe in the benefit of augmentation of coronary perfusion afforded by IABP, but that is also tempered by clinical situations that I am somewhat fuzzy on. Others are less likely to use based on hemolysis issues with the larger devices. Again, I am sure this varies by the entity they are treating.

I don’t think anyone is outright resistant to the idea, more of a lack of excitement. Maybe part of their lack of excitement is that they have been using this stuff in clinical trials for 20+ years, and are “anchoring” on the long-standing and somewhat tiring history of promise.

But maybe the tide has turned.

Cosmid

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hi again Chris, My position has certainly treated me well, beyond my expectations!

Saul

Hi again Saul,

I’m very glad to hear that and I’m hoping to also be treated well. Several other positions that I set up (particularly AMBA and SKX) due to my learning on this board are treating me extremely well. I cannot thank you enough!

Cheers,
Chris