ABMD earnings

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
1

Beat all estimates, good outlook. Stock down 6.6% What?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/abiomed-outshines-q3-earnings-…

The company reported earnings of 23 cents per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7 cents but declined 23.3% from the year-ago quarter. The decline can be attributed to operating margin contraction in the quarter…

Revenues increased 38.4% year over year to $85.8 million, outpacing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $79 million . The year-over-year upside was supported by robust performance by the Impella heart pump product line…

Globally, Impella revenues grew a strong 41% to $81 million in the quarter. U.S. Impella revenues improved 45% to $75 million while outside the U.S., revenues shot up 26% at cc to $6 million. In the U.S., Impella patient usage soared 45% driven by growing adoption of protected PCI and emergent support…

Abiomed revealed that an additional 20 hospitals purchased Impella 2.5 heart pumps during the quarter, taking the installed customer base to 1,020 sites…

Abiomed noted that an additional 17 sites made initial purchases of Impella RP, bringing the total number of Impella RP U.S. sites to 71 at the end of the quarter. This surpassed the company’s initial fiscal year target of 60 cites.…

Gross margin expanded 100 basis points (bps) to 85.1%

Abiomed submitted FDA PMA supplements for the Impella CP and 5.0 products in Aug 2015. The company expects to receive the approval well ahead of its Aug 2016 target date…

Abiomed now forecasts revenues of $326 million, up from the earlier guided range of $305–$315 million . The raised guidance reflects year-over-year growth of 41%. The guidance implies revenues of approximately $90 million for the fourth quarter of 2016.

For fiscal 2016, the company projects reported operating margin at around 17%, in comparison to the previous range of 15% to 17%.

Currently, Abiomed sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).

All sounds terrible to me :wink:

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2

Correction, down 20% in 2 trading days now… at least as far as intraday is concerned at the moment…

Results look good, but not worth the risk to add to it yet for me. Need lower before I will add. If it never goes lower, happy with what I have

3

Started a position 72.50s, willing to add lower. I sold out prior position much higher.

Rob

4

Started a position 72.50s, willing to add lower. I sold out prior position much higher.

Me too, then I bought it at a great bargain. Twice. Not so great now.

5

re: Firesale

Timberrrrrrr… http://tinyurl.com/h9pm8lf down 12.58%. Down 22.1312 percent since 2/4/16.

kewl beans, luv it when you guys have a professional business plan.

Firesale, should have out of the market on or about DECEMBER 3RD, 2015 to protect your ASSets.

Daily…http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BDI&p=D&yr=0&…

Weekly…http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BDI&p=W&yr=0&… OUT of the market on or about September 28th, 2015.

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I am about 60% cash. I am starting positions slowly on stocks I like.

Thanks,
Rob

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kewl beans, luv it when you guys have a professional business plan.

Quill,

Wait a minute. You wouldn’t trying to be sarcastic, would you? Of course everyone knows that averaging-down is what smart, well-informed investors do. It’s only you naughty, market-timing traders who don’t chase prices, down, down, down. If they don’t buy, how will markets stay up?

Don’t you realize that standing aside as prices fall just cause prices to fall further? Don’t discourage people from buying based on funnymentals. It’s what they know, like, and understand and makes so much more sense to them than a bunch of squiggly lines on a chart that just tells them bad news they don’t want to hear.

A

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8

Quillnpenn, do you really do this stuff? Or do just find charts that show what you want to see in hindsight?

For example, I’ve backtested the 13/50 EMA crossover approach you posted about last time, and it significantly underperformed** buy and hold over the long run for the companies I own or have owned (and not even that long term, really: even 3-year rolling periods over the past decade largely favored buy-and-hold). So sitting on one’s hands and doing nothing was a better business plan, at least for my companies.

I hope you’re successful – I want everyone to be – but if you are, there’s a lot more to it than what you’re sharing here.

I have nothing against technical analysis, but I have yet to run across an approach that is provably superior to buy-and-hold. Instead, it just seems like people find past charts that make it look obvious in hind-sight, but that’s a lot different than predicting where the market will go from here. Pete posted about how IBD said there was a “follow-through” day that was very positive for the market, and then he posted about his own declaration of a “follow-through” day. The market hasn’t exactly fared well since those predictions. I’m not picking on Pete, I just think it’s another example of how unpredictable the market is. I suspect that TA people remember their successes and silently forget their failures. And of course buy-hold folks have failures too.

In any case, I hope you continue to find your methods profitable. And if you do wish to share exactly what you do, I’d certainly be interested in backtesting them to see if they really do outperform over the long run. But if they don’t outperform, then I’m not sure why you’re acting so snarky towards the folks choosing what seems to be the better long-term approach.

Neil

** The problem with the 13/50 EMA crossover approach seems to be two-fold, though they’re both related to the fact that decisions are made using lagging averages. First, it can miss huge upward moves in the stock (after a great earnings announcement, for example), and by the time it buys in most of the gains have been missed. And second, it gets hammered by periods of volatility, buying in at local peaks and selling out at local troughs. Where it shines is when a stock price has very long moves in a single direction, which not only avoid the problem of local optima but also gives time for the 50-day average to catch up to the lower prices and make it more likely that the technique will buy back in sooner and enjoy more of the bounce off the bottom. That’s my own personalconclusion, anyway, based on my cursory analysis.

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Pete posted about how IBD said there was a “follow-through” day that was very positive for the market, and then he posted about his own declaration of a “follow-through” day. The market hasn’t exactly fared well since those predictions. I’m not picking on Pete, I just think it’s another example of how unpredictable the market is. I suspect that TA people remember their successes and silently forget their failures. And of course buy-hold folks have failures too.

Yes, the IBD initial declaration was really iffy to me, not the usual price or volume move and I was vary wary of it. The Friday move was a “proper” FTD, but it always comes with caveats and IBD said be cautious because there were not a lot of leading stocks in good setups (bases). It is clearly been reset to “market correction” with the recent action. And those types of investors should be in all cash based on their rules.

I do not buy or sell my 1YPEG stocks based on those guidelines, but I have nibbled on the way down, and all those nibbles are worse and worse every day :wink:

I also don’t use it to taunt people, unlike some others like Mr. Q :wink:

On the other hand, Saul has his own successful way of investing and I am sure plenty of people on the WPRT felt taunted at times :wink:

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… , but I have nibbled on the way down, and all those nibbles are worse and worse every day :wink:
Puddinhead, you are not alone with the failed nibbling on the way down. I have actually been taking large bites and the taste is starting to spoil.
The problem I’ve run into is when you shift from one stock into another that seems to be on sale, you risk being over weighted in the sale stock. Now I’m less diversified and if the sale stock, INFN, doesn’t recover I’m no longer invested in a portfolio that I want. I’ve taken a risk that has highlighted to me the importance of maintaining the max limit of 15-20% for a single stock.
I thought I could bend that rule a little, and then “the sale” continued, and I bent it a little more… the falling knives are cutting us all up, but time will heal all wounds with patience.

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15-20% is a HUGE allocation in one stock. That said, I’ve been relishing in the chance to buy INFN at these prices – picked up more today. With earnings coming out Thursday, could be a very nice weekend. Good luck to you.

  • Bear
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Re: compounding, compounding is the secret to being a successful trader / investor.

Neil,

Sorry to say, I trade for a living while others on this board who are bored out of their gourd with nothing to do. As a JAFO I see and hear them complain about their losses. Why !!! It is my job not to lose as much money as possible. Investing is a Business and must be treated as such.

A little history, I have been trading / investing using the 13/50 since 1974. Trade / invest in ETF’s since 1993 with SPY as the first ETF to own. Invest and trade via the Perpetual Income coming in for the rest of my life since 1986 with ACG as my first stock starting off with $30,000.00, compound the returns monthly plus adding $400.00 until I ended up with 100,000.00 shares. Today I have 12 portfolios of 15 stocks in each one. However at the current time, I have Portfolios 1 and 2 running full bore and a few stragglers running around with simple rules. Must yield 6% or more, pay $ 1.21 annually or greater and pay $ 0.11 or greater per share per month. Guarantee 3 checks a week or 5 checks a month. I currently collect over 40 checks a month as well 20 checks monthly or quarterly from the stock portfolios.

Biggest trades are GMCR, SBUX, MCD and XOM.

Invested in five companies being GMCR, SBUX, MCD, XOM and the QQQ’s.
GMCR was the best stock I ever owned. July of 1994, bought 30,000 shares of GMCR, June 1992, bought 500 shares of SBUX. Compounded each stock into the next signal purchase.

Traded GMCR and SBUX as normal until the stock splits came in :

GMCR…Splits: Jan 12, 2001 [2:1], Jul 30, 2007 [3:1], Jun 9, 2009 [3:2], May 18, 2010 [3:1]
SBUX…Splits: Sep 30, 1993 [2:1], Dec 4, 1995 [2:1], Mar 22, 1999 [2:1], Apr 30, 2001 [2:1], Oct 24, 2005 [2:1]

No longer own GMCR because of the buyout. Do the math.

Now onto the 13/50. The concept came from two investment bankers who I uee to caddy for about two years. Then came along a site on the internet called ClearStation dot com who did nothing but stocks dealing with the 13/50eama. They had over 30,000 people viewing the site until E-trade went and bought the web site figuring they would attract the 30,000 people plus to their web site. The ClearStation Web site was a teaching tool and for everyone as posting stocks of the day and other interesting features for other investor / traders. Went to stockfletcher and finally landed with Stockcharts.com. They have the charts and the scanning features to create any kind of scanning tool to use. Scan.stocharts.com can give assistance to folks who want a scanning tool that they can’t write the code. There was one scan that I requested and they couldn’t figure it out or help write the code.

Going forward, the below are a few scanning tools that are used to find stocks in daily, weekly or monthly forms.

Scan 3 - 13/50 EMA Bullish crossover

[type = stock] AND [country = US] AND [Daily EMA(13,Daily Volume) > 500000] AND [Daily EMA(50,Daily

Close) > 10] AND [Daily EMA(13,Daily Close) crosses Daily EMA(50,Daily Close)]

//and [SCTR > 90]

At 4:30pm EST, the above I scanned from Stochcharts.com for a fee and found 24 stocks. I have over 39 scanning tools that I use.

ALL, ADP, CINF, CMI, DCI, DE, FNV, GWW, HDV,

HRB, HTLD, ITW, JBHT, JNUG, KLIC, LECO, PGR,

PH, SCCO, SLW, WM, XOM, XON.

Now to find the ones that are tighter to the vest…remove the “//” in the line //and [SCTR > 90] and found only 5

CINF, FNV, HDV, SLW, XOM.

http://tinyurl.com/j3daqnn is an Oil stock.

http://tinyurl.com/j9vvf84 NYC will never run out of electricity. ED would be classified as a buy forever stock.

Now let’s look at the inverse

Scan 4 - 13/50 EMA Bearish crossover

[type = stock] AND [country = US] AND [Daily EMA(13,Daily Volume) > 500000] AND [Daily EMA(50,Daily

Close) > 10] AND [Daily EMA(50,Daily Close) crosses Daily EMA(13,Daily Close)]

//and [SCTR > 90]

Another cash cow

Do you know what a Tetter Totter is? It is about 98% accurate. So you hit a few speed bumps. Have over a million dollars invested as the MDP (million dollar project). I have 3 MDP’s going on. Beats the hell out of the TMF BS version.

re: Tetter Totter Principle
revised: 07/27/15
re: https://www.google.com/search?q=Teeter+totter&espv=2&…
re: http://www.swing-trade-stocks.com/moving-averages.html
re: http://www.onlinetradingconcepts.com/TechnicalAnalysis/MASim…
re: SECTORS: DIA, SPY, QQQ, KBE, IYE, GLD, SMH, IYR, XLB, SLV
re: Compounding ,compounding, compounding
re: constant positive money flow
re: 2x proshares.com
re: 3x Direxionfunds.com

The Teeter Totter Principle is all about using a “seesaw” to balance your Nest Egg’s cash and investments.

The following sample Sector and pairs, are using the 13/50 ema. You will notice that one will go up while the other will go down

as would a “Seesaw” in a play ground. Just simply buy and sell at the crossovers hassle free.

Buy when the 13ema (red) crosses up and over the 50ema (blue) heading North.

Sell when the 13ema (red) crosses back down over the 50ema (blue) heading South.

Compounding: Take the profits and principle and buy the inverse stock.

MDP: Million Dollar Portfolio and the Tetter Totter demo charts with the following Silver sector.

SLV: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=0&mn…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGQ&p=D&yr=0&mn…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ZSL&p=D&yr=0&mn…

Now, we are gonna make your life much easier and learn how to relax, be kewl and enjoy life into your golden years.

The following are all Swing Trades for the MDP (Million Dollar Portfolio).

The sectors are traded long and or shorted for constant positive money flow. Shorting can not be done with an IRA.

The pairs are traded per the Tetter Totter principle within each Sector.

re: Sectors: DIA, SPY, QQQ, KBE, IYE, GLD, SMH, IYR, XLB, SLV with the black background can be traded as Sector group.

DIA: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DIA&p=D&yr=0&mn…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DDM&p=D&yr=0&mn…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DXD&p=D&yr=0&mn…

SPY: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn…
SH: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SH&p=D&yr=0&mn=…
UPRO:http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UPRO&p=D&yr=0&m…

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SSO&p=D&yr=0&mn…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SDS&p=D&yr=0&mn…

QQQ: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ&p=D&yr=0&mn…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QLD&p=D&yr=0&mn…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QID&p=D&yr=0&mn…

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TQQQ&p=D&yr=0&m…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SQQQ&p=D&yr=0&m…

KBE: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KBE&p=D&yr=0&mn…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UYG&p=D&yr=0&mn…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SKF&p=D&yr=0&mn…

IYE: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IYE&p=D&yr=0&mn…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DIG&p=D&yr=0&mn…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DUG&p=D&yr=0&mn…

GLD: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=0&mn…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DPG&p=D&yr=0&mn…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DZZ&p=D&yr=0&mn…

SMH: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SMH&p=D&yr=0&mn…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USD&p=D&yr=0&mn…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SSG&p=D&yr=0&mn…

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SOXL&p=D&yr=0&m…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SOXS&p=D&yr=0&m…

IYR: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IYR&p=D&yr=0&mn…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=URE&p=D&yr=0&mn…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SRS&p=D&yr=0&mn…

XLB: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLB&p=D&yr=0&mn…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UYM&p=D&yr=0&mn…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SMN&p=D&yr=0&mn…

Don’t fight the charts and just go with the flow per our peers EMOTIONS.

After the Elections, all hell will break loose as you said many many times. The following ETFs should be able to handle the mess.

  1. The Dollar…UUP / UDN
  2. GOLD …UGL / GLL
  3. EURO…FXE
  4. HEDGE FUND…TMV
  5. THE DOW…UDOW /SDOW
  6. CHINA …FXI / FXP

Now, here is the other phase of the MDP while Swing Trading. The 3x trades again using the Tetter Totter Principle. Been trading these puppies ( 13 pairs) since 2008 as a project for a college student who needed a folder to make money quickly in a class project contest.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPXL&p=D&yr=0&m… formally BGU
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPXS&p=D&yr=0&m… formally BGZ

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MIDU&p=D&yr=0&m…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MIDZ&p=D&yr=0&m…

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DZK&p=D&yr=0&mn…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DPK&p=D&yr=0&mn…

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DRN&p=D&yr=0&mn…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DRV&p=D&yr=0&mn…

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DUST&p=D&yr=0&m…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NUGT&p=D&yr=0&m…

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EDC&p=D&yr=0&mn…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EDZ&p=D&yr=0&mn…

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ERX&p=D&yr=0&mn…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ERY&p=D&yr=0&mn…

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FAS&p=D&yr=0&mn…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FAZ&p=D&yr=0&mn…

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TMF&p=D&yr=0&mn…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TMV&p=D&yr=0&mn…

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TNA&p=D&yr=0&mn…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TZA&p=D&yr=0&mn…

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TYO&p=D&yr=0&mn…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TYD&p=D&yr=0&mn…

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=YANG&p=D&yr=0&m…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=YINN&p=D&yr=0&m…

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TECS&p=D&yr=0&m…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TECL&p=D&yr=0&m…

Keep an eye on the following for any changes at http://www.direxionshares.com/etfs

All the above can be back tested at your leisure before investing a dime.

Now let’s look at QID / QLD ; FAZ / FAS as a sidebar. I could own TQQQ / SQQQ pair, but I don’t at this time.

If you can show and explain the above to a 7th grader, they will get it with in 30 minutes. It is about 98% accurate by following the simplistic rules. Unless of course some people are coloured blind. It is impossible to fail.

Now, for more accuracy and giving you fits on how simplicity works, we then go to Freestockcharts.com

http://www.onlinetradingconcepts.com/TechnicalAnalysis/Commo… keep this CHEAT SHEET in memory as back ground information.

Let’s move on to make serious money. Again, I do this for a living.

On the Internet explore URL insert

http://www.freestockcharts.com/platform/v1

Then add the following in the URL line.

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=32db1b4a-366d-43a0-b8c0-4f96ffda2536 showing INDL which will show the FW (Front Weighted)Moving average 10 and Moving Average 8. We are following the Yellow FW Moving Average for the xovers.

Next, click on the Add Indicator and select Commodity Channel Index (CCI) 14

Next, click on the Add Indicator and select MACD (12 26 9)

Should now have only Three (3) panels. Slide the cursor over the CCI 0.00 line and then observe the findings at the top Moving average panel.

Will be buying and selling the stock per the CCI 14 line. Buy as the line rises above the zero line (dashed) and sell it as it crosses back down over the zero line.

Or be buying selling the stock per the top panel. As the yellow line crosses up and over the orange line, there is a BUY signal. As it the yellow line crosses back down over the orange line, there is a SELL signal.

and there is a third choice and that is the MACD panel where the BUY signal happens when the cyan (bluish) crosses up and over the white line and SELL when the Cyan line crosses back down over the white line.

When the panels are complete, Save the chart as a master chart. Each day when calling up Freestockcharts.com, the chart shown will be the last chart viewed.

I have written scanning tools for the all the panels and mostly use the CCI 14 to find the stocks to BUY / SELL because it usually appears one day before the moving averages crossover in the top panel and sometimes on the money.

Place the cursor on the chart and just type in the New chart ticker symbol to be viewed.

For exercise, call up AVGO and observe on 11/18/15 what happened and then on 12/3/15.

I will be generating a Master watchlist with all the A+ to A++ rated Seasonality Trading stocks to be used as the Master folder. With the scanning tool, I see about 3 to 6 stocks a day to look at. Will send when the list is complete.

I have a simple spreadsheet to keep track of the trades.

4 times a day I run my scanning tools from stockhcarts.com

Scan 11A - CCI Bullish (crossing above -100) found 10 stocks

[type = stock] AND [country = US]

//and [SCTR > 90]

and [Daily EMA(5,Daily Volume) > 500000] AND [Daily EMA(20,Daily Close) > 10] AND [Daily CCI(14) crosses -100]

AGIO, BMHY, CHS, COST, DV, GPRO, KRNY, MFRM, PLT, QSII.

Scan 11 - CCI Bullish (crossing above 0 and found 14 candiates

[type = stock] and [Country = US] and [Daily SMA(20,Daily Volume) > 500000] and [Daily SMA(20,Daily Close) > 10]
//and [SCTR > 90]
and[Daily CCI(14) crosses 0]

DECK, DOG, DWTI, DXD, GIS, GPRO, GPS, KCG, LQD, RGC, SCO, SDOW (recognize this stock from the Tetter Totter above), SO.

Can scan for the MACD 12 26 9 panel as well.

All my fundemental research of which I do, is done from the following:

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/slp/revenue-eps

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/slp/financials?query=income-sta…

https://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3ASLP&fstype=ii&…

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=slp

http://www.wikinvest.com/wiki/Slp

Niel, I hope the above can kewl things off and remember we are in the same church but, sit in different pews. Try the Tetter Totter and see what I go through via the Business model. Failure is not an option.

Best regards,

Quillnpenn -

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13

MF take “great quarter, but profit taking going on”

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/02/08/why-abiomed…

Abiomed remains an expensive stock, with a forward P/E ratio of 62.2.

Yahoo TTM PE = 25 today
Finviz confirms forward PE = 66.75
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ABMD

But they are raising estimates, so why is PE getting larger. Must be a big number in the TTM. I have researched to that level yet.

14

Neil,

Arguing for or against TA (i.e., making directional bets based on ‘price’) vs FA (i.e., making directional bets based on ‘value’) and the stop-loss methods appropriate to each can be pointless, or it can be fruitful, depending on whether the claims made can be quantified and tested.

When prices are trending in a tight, upward channel, trying to trade the micro-moves within the channel is counter-productive. That is the single instance in which B&H is the superior trading method, but it is rare to find a stock, fund, or ETF that meets that profile for extended periods of time, which is part of the reason why most investors “buy high and sell low”. They bet on trend continuance, but panic out when the trend they failed to catch in a timely manner collapsed on them.

Quill uses 13x50 EMA Xovers to generate signal entry/exit signals. He likes ’ em, trusts 'em and arguing with him about them is pointless for a reason beyond testing. “No man can trade another man’s system.” It works for him. He uses it effectively. End of story.

That said, I’ve back-tested the 13x50 system, and it sucks majorly, for many of the same reasons you cite. The parameter combos I tested were 9-17 x 2 and 30-70 by 5. If there’s any magic in the 13x 50 combo, then testing should have revealed it, which it didn’t. In fact, that very classic, two MA Xover system nearly always lost money when applied to baskets of stocks over reasonably long look-back periods, and the draw-downs that had to be endured were unnerving. Yes, there were clear instances when a 13x50 nailed a move exactly. But other systems test out far better.

Is TA junk? Is FA junk? ‘Yes’ and ‘no’ in both cases, because it all depends on whether users can make either work for them. The real killer combo, however, is to combine FA with TA in a system John Murphy calls Rational Analysis (RA).

Arindam

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Thanks Quillnpen and Arindam. I see you guys are over on the SLP board now, so I’ll take this over there.

Neil

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re: Tetter Totter
re: JAFO from the movie “Blue Thunder”

Neil,

X marks the spot for a kwik snap shot.

http://tinyurl.com/hxrz2qr bought TZA on 1/4/16 @ 47.50 and today 2/11/16 TZA is currently @ 72.54. At the markets current pace, we are looking for a 1 baggar in a short period of tyme. My friend took the inverse becasuse he had a gut feeling before the 4th. As you can tell, EMOTIONS must be removed from the equation.

Best regards,

Quill-

2 Likes