ABMD opportunity

There is no direct news on ABMD so I have to suspect this is being dragged down with the biotechs. Not only have biotechs had a great multiyear run, fear was sent in to pop the balloon with Hillary’s tweet a while back. Sure, biotechs deserve a nice sell of and a chance to “base-out” for a while but we know ABMD makes dumb little heart/blood pumps, not biotech products. There has been no word that ABMD overcharges and they have to compete against other (lesser) products that keep their prices reasonable. So I have to conclude that ABMD is held somewhere in medical ETFs that are being sold and is being dragged down by that blind selling.

If true, this is a great opportunity. High of $110 and currently at $85
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?abmd

No reason in my mind that their growth stops.

Thoughts? Buy, buy, buy?

Chartists might look for the gap to close at $80. Write a Nov put spread with the lower leg at $80 to protect you?

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And I forgot to mention the obvious: chartists would point out that this was a double bottom and if it holds that is good news.

I want to see some kinda uptrend before I jump in. At the very least, I’m waiting for ABMD to rise above the 50 DMA, currently at $95.

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I want to see some kinda uptrend before I jump in. At the very least, I’m waiting for ABMD to rise above the 50 DMA, currently at $95.

If you are going to us a chart to help time entries, I would rather start if this double bottom holds. Then add if it retakes the 50dma. If you don’t have conviction in the stock, the buy on the double bottom bounce would have a (mental) stop loss if it later falls through the double bottom.

Note that Saul revealed that he sold some of his strongest stock (BOFI) to buy ABMD (and SWKS). That is conviction.

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Note that Saul revealed that he sold some of his strongest stock (BOFI) to buy ABMD (and SWKS). That is conviction.

I wouldn’t call it conviction. If BOFI was 20% of his portfolio and he sold 5% of his BOFI then he sold 1% of his portfolio and put 1/8 of that into ABMD. That equates to a 0.125% addition to ABMD. Seems more like rounding error to me.

Chris

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I have high confidence that the demand for ABMD products will contnue to rise in the next 10 years.

We are in the midst of an epidemic of obesity, type-II diabetes and cardio-vascular disease. It started in 1976 when a Congressional committee decided to tell the American people how they should eat. They created the Food Pyramid that pushed low-fat and high carbohydrate diet. They were dead wrong and unleashed a healthcare catastrophe.

This trend will continue because people still believe in the Food Pyramid or is it is called today, the Food Plate.

ABMD is my strongest conviction stock in Saul’s portfolio due to the dietary trends in the US. The Food Plate will not be changed anytime soon because the Big Food lobby will not allow science to get in the way of making money.

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We are in the midst of an epidemic of obesity, type-II diabetes and cardio-vascular disease. It started in 1976 when a Congressional committee decided to tell the American people how they should eat. They created the Food Pyramid that pushed low-fat and high carbohydrate diet. They were dead wrong and unleashed a healthcare catastrophe.

Do you really think Congress is responsible for people eating fast fod and drinking sodas? And do you think the people that are eating fast food and drinking sodas are trying to comply with a 39 year old congressional study?

Color me skeptical.

Jeb
No position
You can see all my holdings here: http://my.fool.com/profile/TMFJebbo/info.aspx

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I think people eat the way they do because it’s 1) convenient, 2) filling, and 3) relatively cheap. There’s a woman who rents an apartment in my house. Her occupation is pet sitter. She doesn’t make a lot of money. Yet she almost never cooks. So long as she pays her rent on time and meets other lease obligations (primarily takes care of my cat when I’m away in China for long stretches).

I don’t care how she budgets her money, but not cooking is a choice which I think inevitably leads to lower nutrition. She’s overweight, but so am I. My wife and I cook almost all our meals. We eat a lot of vegies, but also a fair amount of carbs (rice/noodles). Also, maybe two or three fruit servings daily. We buy mostly organic foods. I think we get equal amounts of exercise. She walks dogs I walk with my wife daily. I also undertake a lot of home improvement projects.

How does these two profiles have anything to do with ABMD? Well, mostly I don’t know what to pin the obesity epidemic on. I also think it’s source is largely irrelevant. I think my renter and I are probably equal candidates for heart disease. I have pharmaceutically well controlled hypertension. I don’t know anything about her medical condition, but it would not surprise to learn she’s also on blood pressure medication.

I will add to this that since I’ve been traveling in China (2007) I’ve noticed that the young people have become observably heavier. Add to this a high percentage of smokers. Maybe it’s the spread of KFC, Pizza Hut and McDonalds along with a host of local competitors. And maybe there are more sedentary jobs. Whatever the cause, in a few short years the Chinese have become fat or fatter anyway. I haven’t looked at ABMDs geographic market penetration, but I’m sure it won’t be long for high demand to develop in China along with the growing US market.

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Do you really think Congress is responsible for people eating …

Answering a larger segment of this line of questioning, the answer is “yes.” Many years ago, “scientists” decided that whole milk was bad for you due to the fat content, so they told everyone to drink 2% or skim milk or whatever. That ended up on the Food Pyramid, which gets burned into the minds of everyone in the country from childhood. It’s on every cereal box, practically. And “scientists” now think that’s contributing to a higher incidence of heart disease. So yeah, there is strong influence when the FDA or the Surgeon General or someone with a name says “Do X” or “Don’t eat Y.”

If Congress can magically turn a tomato into a vegetable, imagine the other possibilities.

That said, ABMD is still somewhat in ‘trial mode’ in my portfolio, but I suspect it will continue to do well, and I’ll probably buy more in the near future. The bits I already own combined are about neutral because I bought a second pile at $101something and it got burned by Hillary’s tweet antics.

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Brittlerock,

The magic lever for weight control is the intake of carbohydrates and nothing else.

not cooking is a choice which I think inevitably leads to lower nutrition.

Correct, because restaurants of all types load their food with carbs. Carbs are cheap and it is good for profit margin.

My wife and I cook almost all our meals.

That’s a start but it will not help until you eliminate the bread, rice and noodles…

We buy mostly organic foods

Organic does not matter. How many carbohydrates in it?

I think we get equal amounts of exercise.

You don’t think you can exercise your way out of the Standard American Diet. Can you devote 3 hours a day to a vigorous workout?

I have pharmaceutically well controlled hypertension.

Yes, hypertension is a classic symptom of the Metabolic Syndrome, caused by the high intake of carbohydrates.

That said, I would not take advice from anyone. Not the Government, not the media, not the Pharma companies and not from some guy on the Internet. Be your own scientist. Cut your carb consumption in half for 6 weeks and see what happens.

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For those interested in how and why our diet has evolved over the last few decades, you should read the book: Michael Moss is the author of the #1 New York Times bestseller SALT SUGAR FAT: How the Food Giants Hooked Us, a Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative reporter formerly with the NY Times.
It will shock you how manipulated the public is for profit with food. Health is the last thing on their minds.

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Another classic read is “how we got fat”. One of the worst weight explosions coming from the American and global diet happened when the food industry locked into high fructose corn syrup. It isn’t just carbs its the quality of carbs too. But overall I agree we have been done a disservice by law makers, scientists & industry etc into being led to believe fat is the enemy instead of carbs.
A

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