The northern tip of the Vermont Square neighborhood in South Los Angeles gentrified in many of the usual ways over the last decade. Median incomes shot up. The neighborhood’s share of Black residents declined. On the list of fastest growing home prices across the region, Vermont Square cracked the top ten. Along Western Avenue, new apartment buildings popped up as visible markers of change.
But there is a less obvious, if no less profound, marker: Fewer people began riding the bus. Between 2012 and 2017, public transit ridership fell in this Census designated tract — a roughly half-square mile neighborhood spanning Western — by 24%. In that same period, the neighborhood-wide rent increased by an average of $468 per month.
That, according to UCLA researchers, is probably not a coincidence. A study published late last year compared changes in transit ridership numbers to rental market trends in neighborhoods across Los Angeles and Orange counties. It found that in neighborhoods well-served by buses and trains, transit ridership tended to fall in places where the rents were rising.
This doesn’t seem at all surprising to me. Bus transit takes more time than using a personal vehicle. But it costs less. Lower income folk are willing to - or must - make the time/money trade in favor of saving money. Higher income people can afford to pay more to save some time.
Waymo is definitely cheaper in exurban areas far from the city center. It’s pretty expensive to run a 40 passenger bus 15 miles to pick up 2 people in a small town.
The future will include 10-15 passenger robotaxi vehicles for less traveled routes.
In my area (Orange County, CA) you can ride all day for $5, or get 30 consecutive days of rides for $69. I don’t think there’s any way Waymo will cost less than that even under the rosiest of scenarios.
According to GoogleAI, Waymo charges $4.15 to pick you up and take you 1/5 of a mile. There is a per mile or a time charge from there. Waymo to and from work will cost more than a bus.
So it’s the same time/money trade-off I already mentioned above. Those who need the absolute lowest cost of daily transportation are going to use a bus. If you can afford to pay more, you can use a taxi service (which for me includes things like Waymo and Uber) or buy your own car.
When looking at things like gentrification (which is the subject of your OP), it is the cost to the consumer that is important, not the underlying cost of the transportation service.
Much depends on circumstances. Kansas City has a high efficiency express bus system. They make fewer stops and traffic signals change to keep from stopping the bus.
A commuter going five miles by bus may find it slow and prefer Uber. Especially if they must transfer to another bus.
The commuters who take the one hour train ride from Princeton to Wall Street each morning are unlikely to take a bus. Train strike has to be a big pain.