Aging people, massive spending power

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
1

The massive population aging trend will have a huge impact on the economy.

The Profound Effect of Americans Living Longer Lives

Despite a recent dip in life expectancy, more Americans than ever are living into their 90s. How they spend their money and time is altering the workplace, real estate, philanthropy, and more.

Esquire, by Michael Clinton

Thanks to lifestyle changes and the miracles of modern medicine and science, the number of people living into their 90s and beyond is growing every year, even with a slight dip in life expectancies due to the pandemic. Today, more than one third of all Americans are over 50. Every day 10,000 Americans are turning 65 and by 2030, one in five of us will be 65 or over, including the first Gen Xers…

Often ignored by marketers, older Americans have $15 trillion in spending power, which represents nearly double digits growth from 2010, according to the Global Coalition on Aging…

Another market we are upending: housing. More of us are choosing to move to inter-generational neighborhoods, as opposed to senior living communities. We don’t want to move to Florida, we want to age at home. … [end quote]

At the same time, the New York Times has a rather grim series about the costs of elder care, whether at home or in an institutional setting.

This is an issue which will exacerbate the impact of income and asset inequality for decades to come.

Wendy

4 Likes
2

What percentage of that stack is in the hands of people like Buffet, vs in the hands of retired Proles? There is an upper limit to how much a Billionaire can spend.

Meanwhile, working people’s payroll is about $10.5T per year, paid out every year. “JCs” made a profit on the labor for which they paid out every dollar of that stack, and they skim another profit off of every dollar when the Prole spends it, or invests it, or puts it in the bank.

Lets say geezers spend 20 years burning through their $15T. Over that same 20 years, working people earn $210T in wages, with “JCs” skimming a profit off wages, as the wages are paid out, and again as the wages are spent.

Steve

3 Likes
3

If you do it by “dollars”, then yes there is a vast amount of money locked up in a small number of holders.

But then there are a ton of holders who do not fit that category including, if I remember recent polls on this board, many who have millions and who spend pretty well.

Most millionaires in the US are 60-79 years old.

More data published by Statista suggests two-thirds of US millionaires are 60-79 years old.

Another 23% of Americans with a net worth of $1 million or more are 50-59, with a small percentage of millionaires being 40 or younger.

Approximately 1.79 million of the 22 million millionaires in the US are under 30.

It takes a while to accumulate, but eventually, LBYM, have a decent job, and “don’t be unlucky” and you can spend the last couple decades of your life in pretty fine shape.

Millionaire Statistics: Facts & Resources for 2023 | Millennial Money.

2 Likes
4

How much do you need to retire?

From Google

How many people have $1000000 in retirement savings?

This number has been cited so often that investors may feel as if they’re failing if they don’t reach it. But that shouldn’t be the case. In fact, statistically, just 10% of Americans have saved $1 million or more for retirement.Aug 31, 2023

The average retirement nut is $426k.

From five years ago my memory 50% of people have zero savings at retirement age. Some 40% can not afford to retire but do have some savings.

Steve’s point about the billionaires tips the scales towards not much money there. His bigger point about payrolls, the merchants are now switching to the next generations. The Millennials were always a bigger group than the boomers and today are extremely well paid. They need things. We do not.

5

Right. I have lived in the same condo for 27 years. Much of my furniture is 45 years old (when I graduated college and set up housekeeping) Other bits of furniture were inherited, and date from the 60s. Appliances are bought when their predecessors quit. Stopped buying suits in the early 90s. Retired in 2011, so don’t need dress slacks or dress shoes anymore. I wear my 30 year old Office Depot sweatshirt around the house in the winter. When it gives out, I have a couple more inherited sweaters and sweatshirts to wear out. Besides having my own, I inherited three other households of bed linen and towels, so I’m probably set for life on those items.

Steve…doesn’t need much

2 Likes
6

Was in the local grocery store, Kroger, the other day. Finally had my fill of the off limits to me digital coupons and chatted with the store manger who was standing nearby. He explained the ever increasing high tech impositions to get the best deals in the store, (in this case downloading an app on your phone which will then track you throughout the store, documenting how much time you spent in front of each item on the shelves and whether you bought it or not.) After thanking him for his time I told him I would be passing on those deals, but he needed to understand that they were essentially discouraging a whole generation of shoppers from their store, which he should know by now from tracking the dollar amount spent using the little plastic swipe cards that had already been tracking me in a low tech way. Over the years, Kroger has gone from my primary store to my store of last choice. He actually said he had been telling corporate the same thing, but they refuse to listen. I hope they see this.

IP,
whose cyber security son provided the above description of the app and insisted I should never download it

8 Likes
7

Seems to me you could afford Tide; the better product!

JimA

8

Since March 2020, we have been using the pick-up service. At first we were having the store staff get everything, but we weren’t happy with the selection of fresh veggies and fish they chose. So I go into the store to get those and anything that we forgot to put on the list for them to get. I am in the store and out in under 15 minutes. When I am out of the store I open the Kroger app and let them know that I am on my way to the pick-up and then to let them know which space I am in. Then I quit the app. This seems to work well for us.

9

I had to buy some new dress shoes this year. My best old pair are pretty ratty and are at least 20 years old. I do go through one or two pairs of light hiking shoes every year or so. My newest hiking boots are almost 7 years old. I hike in them 3-5 days a week.

1 Like
10

I couldn’t find the Midas Muffler ad where “Mr Overcash”, in the stretch limo, is asked “why does a man like you even bother with a guarantee?”, and answers “how do you think a man like me got to be a man like me?”. So here is the VW “funeral” ad.

2 Likes
11

Steve, you’ve commented that you were/are the custodian for several aunts n uncles as they transitioned through life’s stages.

Do you have a favorite niece or nephew lined up for your transition?
And/or plan B?

I’ve been pondering my own transition and who’s gonna be in charge.

:expressionless:
ralph

12

Nope. No siblings, no spouse, no ex-spouse, no spawn. I have two cousins who are in far worse health, in spite of being a few years younger than I, so I will probably outlive them by a significant margin.

At the insistent nagging of a now-deceased aunt, I did write up a will a number of years ago, naming her my executor, with her lawyer as successor executor. She passed 13 years ago. And, in settling her estate, I learned what a crust-sack (Fool will not let me use the word I intened) that lawyer is. I’m pretty confident that, if he got his hands on my estate, he would pocket all of it.

When I get together with friends, I suggest, only half kidding, that I need to adopt one of them, “to wipe the oatmeal off my chin in the nursing home”. The one volunteer has both parents still living, so they might have something to say about it. There is one other guy in that group who does seem to be pretty sharp, and still in his 30s, so not likely to die before me.

Michigan has a really nasty law. When someone has no responsible party, the court appoints a caretaker. The program is a scam, as the caretakers tend to rob their charges blind.

Steve

5 Likes
13

That is a huge, HUGE, overstatement of the capabilities of the app. Any app. First of all, you can disallow location access to any app. Second of all, the technology for accurate indoor location is in its infancy. Third of all, most phones don’t even have the hardware to do that yet. Fourth, you can disable the app entirely until you check out and want those nice coupons. Fifth, you can still access the nice coupons without the app by just entering your phone number at checkout (I do this quite often). Sixth, if you are really paranoid, you can create yourself a free new telephone number and simply use that one for Kroger if you don’t want them to have your real number.

In most cases, apps can only do what you allow them to do. Smartphones really are pretty smart and give you substantial control over the apps you use.

4 Likes
14

Getting the popcorn for this one. Disagreeing never mind using the word paranoid is never allowed. The carry-on is deafening. Someone else must be to blame when wrong. It does not contribute anything to this board.

I use the FB pixel and API. The pixel is the browser and API server.

The API comes second and is more important offering better data.

The best analogy of what I am doing is to get mailboxes. Not literally. If you sent homes in your town a pamphlet for your business the advert is only as good as your ability to send more things to the mailboxes. Some data points the API picks up are like mailboxes in that the ads can be shown to those who have some interaction or interest in my NFTs.

The power of this tool can not be underestimated. For 25% of the people, this is great. They see things they want. For 70% this is creepy. Everything online is creepy. See enough creep you just ignore it. People who want to see things badly do not realize someone else is creeped out by ads following their online travels. The same people in the happy 25% are creeped out by other ads of stuff they do not want.

If you post on FB and see a lot of other posters at times you make a friend but most of the time you never see other posters twice. They disappear and go off again to do their thing. You need a data point of theirs to reach them again. This is retargeting with FB ads and remarketing with Google ads. During my art career until now I have not had these tools. All my posts were limited until now. Often my posts were seen once liked and forgotten.

As far as retail and supermarkets having a better handle on inventory management for repeat customers like supermarket shoppers saves the customer a lot of time and energy/gasoline. As a customer, you will get better-stocked shelves when you visit.

The central issue is whether your credit card information is secure and will your data be resold or secured so that identity theft does not happen. You can not ever escape these issues just by changing supermarkets, banks, or insurers.

15

Steve,

I have been an executor for 5 people. It’s a thankless task trying to interpret what a loved one who has died wants done unless it is specifically in their will. Even with specifics, it’s a bear.

Don’t let your estate get ripped off. Get a will done and spell out exactly where you want your assets to go to (family, friends, charity, etc.). Find someone you trust and you believe is honest. The fee they get is well earned. You can also name alternative executors if you know multiple people you trust, as I’m sure you do. That way if #1 dies before you, #2 can step in.

Just don’t let some sleaze ball rip off your estate. Or worse than a sleaze ball, a bank.

4 Likes
16

I have done three estates: mom, dad, and an aunt. Fortunately, not having any siblings, and mom and dad both dying broke, nothing to fight over.

That is the hard part.

The even harder part, is what if I land in a nursing home for an extended period? That is where the Michigan law comes in. Since the old partisan gerrymander was broken, the state has a more moderate legislature, for the first time in forty years, and they are trying to do something about it.

1 Like
17

Or you can just shop elsewhere. I like a good bargain, but they often come at too high a price when you factor in non-financial impacts. My brain is busy enough without factoring in all the steps you list above for the simple act of buying a yam at half price.

No offense, but I know my son’s credentials and I don’t know yours. He is a well paid cybersecurity professional who is hired to hack, and is not only current on research, but does his own.

I am sure many thought that the “incognito browsing” they did on Chrome wasn’t tracked by Google, either:

The plaintiffs alleged that Google’s analytics, cookies and apps let the Alphabet unit track their activity even when they set Google’s Chrome browser to “Incognito” mode and other browsers to “private” browsing mode.

https://www.reuters.com/legal/google-settles-5-billion-consumer-privacy-lawsuit-2023-12-28/

IP,
who has earned the right to be paranoid, tangling with identity theft since the 1990’s, thanks to closing documents on a home being stolen and further compromise by Equifax

2 Likes
18

Steve, given your level of discontent and complaints, I find it puzzling that you haven’t moved out of the state years ago.

DB2

4 Likes
19

Once I retired, I had the time to explore the places to go and things to do around here. My summers are very busy. Something going on nearly every weekend. I have to make trips to other places during the week because the weekends are so full. I have been retired for 12 years now, and I haven’t made it up to the Straits yet. A friend had a memorial service for his mom on a Saturday, last summer. While I was there, he asked me what I had given up to be there (an event at the Gilmore museum). Another friend hosted an event, also on a Saturday, and, again, I had to give up another event to be at his. I haven’t made the Celtic fair in Saline in several years, due to conflicts with other events.

Besides, as the US becomes ever Shinier, I would not expect any other place to be less Shiny than Michigan. On the positive side, the folks in Lansing are now unwinding some of the nonsense the previous (L&Ses) enacted, including reforming that guardianship law. The previous “JC” Gov, has reentered politics, to try and rewind the nonsense that the current Gov is trying to unwind.

This TV ad was put together, a few years ago, for one of the events I attend, at Greenfield Village.

On the rare Saturday or Sunday when there isn’t something else going on, I can mosey down to the Village to watch a baseball game. 1867 rules, often with the Dodworth Saxhorn Band, playing between innings, while I sit in the shade on a grassy hillside and watch the game.

Then, in September, the Village puts on another show, which, in recent years, has included elements of the former “Ragtime Street Fair” that was discontinued.

The Village has discontinued the Civil War Remembrance. That was a good time too. Some years ago, the reenacter that was playing a Confederate doctor gave me a sample of his “medicinal” rum, brewed in Australia, the closest made now, to what was available in the 1860s. Pretty tasty, and it really cleared out my sinuses.

5 Likes
20

As I was “researching n thinking” about Teslabot vs 4 other humanoid robots, in another thread…
When will we see “legal robot-in-a-briefcase” who do Executor-type functions for estates?

This might limit the “slimy lawyers” who abscond with the victim’s funds?

:face_with_monocle:
ralph has few worldly possessions, and TOD/POD beneficiaries on his accounts.
I don’t need no stinking lawyers. :grin:

2 Likes