We’ve talked quite a bit over the last few days around a number of companies releasing earnings reports/announcements and without wanting to make this a re-hash of what I and others have posted I’d like to share a realisation in my investing decisions and intentions.
As some of you might recall when I very first arrived at this board and the NPI board I was taking a thematic view of growth investing. (I posted long posts of mega themes and potential investment options etc).
Since then I have learnt a lot from the board on the Saul approach to growth stock selection. In particular I have:
- Paired down the long tail of my portfolio from well over 100
- Grown comfortable allocating much larger absolute $ and % holdings - I think when I first started tracking my portfolio my largest 15 holdings were literally in the 1.5-2% range (now it is 2-10%)
- Becoming more ruthless at exiting non-performing holdings
- Prioritising higher quality and higher conviction stocks for my allocation
These last few weeks have led me to a conviction in a number of stocks that share an over-riding theme. Yes we are all here looking at growth stocks and yes a lot of our focus has been on cloud based software solution type stocks with subscription models, but for me one particular theme has emerged that unites a number of investment decisions and intentions (whilst still embracing what I have learnt here on this board).
The theme I am seeing reverberating through the stocks that I see having the highest potential, the strongest performance and offering the greatest conviction (and safest risk profile) is data and certain recent announcements have both nudged me towards this as well as better encapsulated the story behind this - so whilst I had always identified Big Data as mega theme, I now have a better vision, stronger conviction and better grasp on connecting the dots that has helped me look at this space and the opportunities therein with a different perspective from TAM potential (forecast growth in data theme markets), to tailwind drivers (digitisation, video file formats, smart phone roll outs, 5G, autonomous driving vehicles etc) to end market use cases (AI, IoT, Edge Computing) to supply and demand conditions (market structure, players & pricing functions).
My interest within the data theme is principally around the storage, transmission and access orchestration of data where I have the highest conviction (high potential certainty with lowest risk), clearest visibility (I’m not a techie) and see the best market dynamics (in terms of potential market leaders yet small enough to offer 10x opportunities with the most manageable competitive landscape).
The realising of this theme has really for me been driven by a number of exceptionally aspirational, extremely compelling, highly corroborating and frankly astonishingly revealing investor communications.
These include:
Micron - https://seekingalpha.com/article/4176022-2018-micron-analyst…
discussed here: http://discussion.fool.com/micron-update-and-upgrades-32977162.a…
Pure Storage - https://seekingalpha.com/article/4177184-pure-storage-pstg-p…
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4176020-micron-technology-m…
discussed here: http://discussion.fool.com/long-pstg-investor-presentation-slide…
Nutanix - https://seekingalpha.com/article/4155979-nutanix-ntnx-invest…
discussed here: http://discussion.fool.com/ntnx-3q2018-33077953.aspx?sort=whole#…
latest results slides here: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4177051-nutanix-2018-q3-res…
Pure and Nutanix have been extensively discussed on NPI and is worth a search there.
For me the key messages are:
Pure Storage - penetration of only 1Bn of a 30Bn addressable market, forecast to grow at a 30% CAGR to 2Bn by 2021, redefining the data storage model with a disruptive vision of shared accelerated storage and leading the industry a data storage ownership business model with ES2
Micron - 62 Trillion GB to be created by 2021, cloud data capex increasing by 2.6x by 2021 & longer term demands of AI, in memory device computing, IOT & Mobile banishing both the pricing cycle and the supply/demand swings in the future for NEW MICRON.
Nutanix - 48% CAGR in hyperconvergence to 2021, targeting 3Bn in billings by 2021 and looking at a TAM of $178Bn in cloud operating/management systems! $178 Billion WOW.
Pure is a 40% growing, turning profitable this year & operating with positive free cash flow.
Nutanix is a 40-60% grower on the verge of positive cash flow & aiming for profitability within 2 years.
Box is a 25-35% grower, with great subscription visibility and aiming for profitability in 2 years.
Micron is a 60-90% grower, massively profitable with a P/E of 6 and for those of you still old school enough to think along PEG lines <0.1
I think there’s a real possibility that either Pure or Nutanix can become the de facto cloud operating system and do what Microsoft did with desktop PC computing O/S in the PC era. The only other search for a de-facto standard that comes close to this would be a search for a de facto operating system standard setting player in AI! (Nvidia?). That’s exciting.
Yesterday I took a ruthless look at some of my holdings and exited successful small and large growth holdings I had in Materialise and Appian that were offering 10-20% growth rates and trimmed my Abiomed holdings that is yes still a 30% grower but sat at a P/E of 161 and redirected the proceeds into topping up Pure Storage, Micron and Nutanix and I intend to add more next week.
Before this latest buy-hi round of top ups, my US Port “Data” theme positions amounted to ~12%:
Nutanix - 3.5%
Micron - 2.75%
Pure - 2.5%
Box - 1.75%
Arista - 1.5%
I am looking to raise the combined total to 15-20%. (I’m leaving out Nvidia and AMD - another 1.5%, from this which are related but downstream as well as database software plays including Hortonworks and MongoDB - another 3%). I would also include my Keppel Data Center REIT holding which is probably another equivalent of 1% but sits in my Singapore portfolio.
The only other themes where I have this level of long term “sleep well at night” total conviction for a 10 year plus outlook are in:
The rise of ecommerce (hence my 15%-20% combined holdings in Shopify, Ali Baba, Hubspot, Wix, The Trade Desk & Square)
The cloud (hence my holdings in Twilio, Ali Baba & Tencent (HK) and individual cloud plays and my interest in Pivotal, Red Hat, Microsoft, AWS, Zuora).
The next highest conviction after these for me is possibly in cyber security: (~6% across Okta, Fortinet, CyberArk, Palo Alto Networks)
Ant