AMBA Reports

  • Revenue of $84.2 million, up 79.3% YoY.
  • Adjusted EPS of $0.88 per diluted ordinary share, up 138% YoY.

Here is what I currently show for numbers, using the closing price of $89.61. Basic log charts at

           Price: $89.61          1YPEG: 0.22          Adjusted P/E: 30          

                        Adjusted Earnings - Historical Stats
| Fiscal Q.     Adj. EPS     TTM EPS      YoY TTM Growth      Growth Acceleration |
| Q2 2016          $0.88       $2.95              136.0%                    19.3% |
| Q1 2016          $0.71       $2.44              114.0%                    42.5% |
| Q4 2015          $0.68       $1.98               80.0%                    51.2% |
| Q3 2015          $0.68       $1.56               52.9%                    75.2% |
| Q2 2015          $0.37       $1.25               30.2%                          |
| Q1 2015          $0.25       $1.14                                              |
| Q4 2014          $0.26       $1.10                                              |
| Q3 2014          $0.37       $1.02                                              |
| Q2 2014          $0.26       $0.96                                              |
| Q1 2014          $0.21                                                          |
| Q4 2013          $0.18                                                          |
| Q3 2013          $0.31                                                          |

                             Revenue - Historical Stats
| Fiscal Q.      Revenue    TTM Revenue     YoY TTM Growth    Growth Acceleration |
| Q2 2016         $84.2M          $286M              64.2%                  26.1% |
| Q1 2016         $71.0M          $248M              50.9%                  32.2% |
| Q4 2015         $64.7M          $218M              38.5%                  29.2% |
| Q3 2015         $65.7M          $194M              29.8%                  17.8% |
| Q2 2015         $47.0M          $174M              25.3%                        |
| Q1 2015         $40.9M          $165M                                           |
| Q4 2014         $40.0M          $158M                                           |
| Q3 2014         $46.0M          $149M                                           |
| Q2 2014         $37.7M          $139M                                           |
| Q1 2014         $33.9M                                                          |
| Q4 2013         $31.5M                                                          |
| Q3 2013         $35.7M                                                          |

I’m not quite sure why it’s down after hours, especially after the significant decline today already. They beat on both revenue and EPS. Conference call is at 5pm ET.



Call is still in prepared remarks. Sounds like what people don’t like is that a lot of product launches occurred in Q2, whereas normally they’d be next quarter in Q3. Those drive significant revenues and earnings, resulting in much higher YoY comps, but presumably it will impact next quarter. They haven’t mentioned next quarter guidance yet.



Beat top and bottom lines this Q. Next Q guidance 92.33M with estimates 90-93M. Stock is down around $80 AH. Not sure why.


Beat top and bottom lines this Q. 3Q revenue guidance $90-$93M with estimates $92.33M. Stock is down around $81-82 AH. Not sure why.


Stock is down around $80 AH. Not sure why.

All I can guess is that traders think the stock will be dead money for a while, and perhaps coupled with fears of supposed competition they don’t want to hang around and take chances. Normally we see sequential earnings improvement through fiscal Q3, and then things drop off for a quarter or two and then start to rebuild again. This year, though, the peak is in fiscal Q2 since major product launches that normally happen in Q3 occurred earlier this year.

I didn’t hear an estimate for Q3 adjusted EPS on the call – might have missed it, and the transcript isn’t out yet. But I think they estimated adjusted net income at $29.5M - $31.5M and total outstanding shares at 34.3M. That’d give an adjusted EPS estimate of around $0.89 at the midpoint, I believe, which would lead to a TTM EPS of around $3.16 next quarter, implying 102% growth on a TTM basis. At $80, that’d lead to a P/E of around 25.3 after next quarter’s results and a 1YPEG of around 0.25. So slightly higher 1YPEG than we have at today’s close price with this quarter’s earnings (0.25 vs 0.22), but lower adjusted P/E (25 vs 30).

If all that is correct and I didn’t mis-hear or screw up the math, then personally it looks attractive to me: very reasonable P/E, so less likely to see significant further compression, and still very conservative relative to growth (even if growth looks likely to slow a bit).

That’s my quick take, anyway. Could certainly be wrong. I added a little bit to my position earlier in AH (above current prices), and who knows how that will work out in the short term, especially with ongoing market turmoil. Long term, though, I think there’s a good chance this could prove to be a solid opportunity if the company can continue executing. We’ll see.



OK. I listed to the call. The replay is available here:

Q2 (quarter just reported) had a lot of business that happens in Q3. Specifically, GoPro and Xiaomi launched new products that required builds by AMBA. Now those orders won’t come in Q3. The good news is that most of their markets are growing well and margins are still good.

If you listen to the call and want to hear the guidance then go to around the 19 minute mark.

Midpoint guidance is as follows:

** Revenue: $91.5M (39.3% growth over Q3FY15)

** Adj EPS: $0.89 (30.9% growth over Q3FY15; full year growth will drop from 136% in the quarter just reported to 102.6% next quarter).

** Gross margin: 63.75%

** Shares are at about $81.37 in after hours trading as I’m writing this giving the stock a TTM P/E of 27.6 and a 1YRPEG of 0.20. But next quarter the P/E (at current prices) will be 25.75, growth rate 102.6, and 1YRPEG 0.25.

** Now the big question is what will happen going forward. I think AMBA’s future earnings are somewhat difficult to predict (unlike companies like BOFI and CELG which have shown stable and steady growth making them easier to forecast). I would bet that growth will continue as their end markets are growing. Let’s try to look a year out. If TTM earnings in the 10/31/2016 quarter hit $5.10 then we will have a forward P/E of 16, a full year growth of 61.4%, and a 1YRPEG of 0.26. So what this is basically saying is that the 1YRPEG will be the same (assuming $5.10 in TTM adj EPS) after next quarter as it will be a year after next quarter. Both of these PEGs are higher then the current 1YRPEG of 0.2. The reason, of course, is that while earnings are going up, the growth is decelerating (according to my forecast). The other interesting thing is that the 1YRPEG if we use the recent stock price high of $129.19 would be 0.32 (instead of 0.2 at the current after hours stock price). So the stock still appears cheap (even if it goes back to the recent highs). While growth will probably slow (note that this is my opinion…you can make your own predictions about future EPS and calculated the resulting growth rates and 1YRPEGS), the opportunity seems intact. Of course, this all depends on your view of the future EPS.



Only thing I see is p/e growth acceleration is slowing. I placed two AH buy orders.



…Sometimes you gotta wonder if Mr. Market forgot to take his meds…

AMBA reports a solid quarter. Firing on all pistons really. Yet the forecast for Q3 is down due to basically technicality on based on a change in when GoPro releases its camera…this of course will impact AMBA’s 3Q FY16 results compared to 3Q FY 15 results…Analysts focused on the short term see this as a problem and have pummeled the stock after hours (down 9.3%)…Long-term investors, like those of you who follow this board, might see opportunity, eh?

Here’s a report specific to AMBA 3Q FY16 guidance:

Wearable camera revenue in Q3 is likely to be down sequentially and year over year, Laplante said. But he said that’s because of GoPro’s (GPRO) earlier-than-usual new-camera release in Q2.

A Quarter Early

“Wearable camera (revenue) has historically occurred in the third fiscal quarter,” he said.

For Q3, Laplante expects drone revenue to continue its ascent. In Q2, drone revenue represented more than 10% of all sales, Ambarella CEO Fermi Wang said on the call.

Yet note that the company’s drone market continues to grow:

Flying camera revenue was lifted by the release of two new DJI drones, he said.

“Ambarella continues to drive design wins and new product introductions in this category,” Wang said.…

AMBA seems to be killing’ it in all areas , executing just as onewould hope. What am I missing?



I subscribe to a website in the U.K that provides information on stocks which includes historic earnings and forecasts, the underlying information is provided by Thomson Reuters, which is one of the biggest providers of information to the finance industry, its main competitor is Bloomberg.

Forecast EPS (GAAP?) for this fiscal year is $3.04, which is roughly a 94% increase in EPS YoY. As I type AMBA is trading around $78, which puts it on a P/E of 26, PEG of 0.28 based on that forecast. However next fiscal EPS is forecast $3.64 which is YoY growth of 20%, the P/E would then be 21.4 and the PEG 1.07.

These figures are from before AMBA reporting Q2.

I realise that Saul prefers to use Non GAAP earnings and forecasts are often wrong but these numbers are provided by Thomson, so thousands of other financial professionals can see them and may well be making buy/sell decisions based on them.

Midpoint guidance is as follows:

** Revenue: $91.5M (39.3% growth over Q3FY15)

** Adj EPS: $0.89 (30.9% growth over Q3FY15; full year growth will drop from 136% in the quarter just reported to 102.6% next quarter).

** Gross margin: 63.75%

The combination of what I have highlighted and forecast slowing growth rates looks to have spooked some investors.

Please don’t shoot the messenger.

I have no position currently, if it falls further I may buy some.



Transcript is out:…