Ok this is the first proper (of sorts) portfolio review I have done on this board. We previously used to do this (share portfolio composition and reviews) a lot on the High Yield Portfolio on UK Fool but the forum service is now defunct unfortunately.
A quick backgrounder:-
I have been using Yahoo as my primary portfolio tracking facility - my Singapore and UK brokerage accounts are actually awful at providing any utility in that respect. I need to improve on the Yahoo constraints and have begun building an offline spreadsheet to determine and track performance and ranking factors. My will focus on the US portfolio which is the most relevant to the investing on this board although I will make some cross compares to the Singapore and HK portfolios which I am actively managing - the Singapore holdings are a mix of High Yield stocks (mainly REITS) as well as growth stocks whilst the HK port is more of a fully growth oriented along the lines of the US port. I’m not going to cover the UK portfolio as it really isn’t the investing focus of this board (although B&W might be interested).
Before I get going - I didn’t manage to pull end of Jan data, although in setting up the spreadsheet I pulled some early/mid feb data so whilst I don’t have 2 month on month comparisons I know that my end of Feb position is about equal to where it was at the ~10th/12th Feb stage. Had I pulled the data at the 4 week stage as per Saul and not at month end - the numbers would have looked a lot better, (I dropped over 1% yesterday alone - although it seems to have recovered about half of that today).
Review approach:-
Ok let’s get into it. As you may be aware from other threads, I currently have far too large a portfolio which I need to slim down however in the meantime I’m going to give the portfolio level overview and the leading (top 15) holdings according to various metrics. Right now I’m going to cover purely capital change and leave dividend income aside although I completely believe in considering it from a total return perspective and as re-investment source of funds and in the long run as per B&W’s point of view, providing a growing source of retirement income draw down (ideally spread throughout the year). In future reviews - certainly at the year end I might account for dividend income.
I will focus the overall review across the 3 portfolios but drill down into just the US portfolio and start with looking at 3 ranking metrics: 1) Overall value allocation, 2) Overall % return & 3) 2017 YTD % return. I will ignore inclusion of my outsized holding in my former company stock which I am selling down and will review the (rest of the) top 15 holdings and suspend coverage of the long tail that I am looking to clean up.
Performance review:-
The overall US portfolio 2017 investing returns (excluding fresh capital additions) are up 9.5% from 2016 year end through to 28th Feb market close. Interestingly it is identical to my 2017 investing returns from the HK port - also up 9.5%. (The Singapore port which is a combination of high yield and growth stocks is up 5.34% over the same time period). Both US and HK ports are ahead of their indices but SG is behind.
Overall 2017 February YTD portfolio investment returns (excluding new capital investment) vs index benchmarks:-
US %YTD change
Port +9.51%
S&P +5.57%
SG %YTD change
Port +5.34%
STI +7.49
HK %YTD change
Port +9.48%
HS +7.91%
US Portfolio composition metrics:-
1) Overall portfolio value rankings
# Ticker %
1 SHOP 2.6%
2 NTES 2.5%
3 SWIR 2.2%
4 BABA 2.0%
5 MZOR 2.0%
6 TAL 1.9%
7 KMI 1.9%
8 AUDC 1.9%
9 KKR 1.8%
10 PAYC 1.8%
11 INBK 1.7%
12 NCLH 1.7%
13 CYBR 1.7%
14 IMPV 1.6%
15 CTRP 1.6%
In terms of the top 15 holdings – these have been reasonably stable. I’m pretty happy with all of them – although I am watching AUDC and SWIR carefully as their growth record is sporadic and could retreat very quickly on disappointing earnings release. Out of all of them I would be most comfortable adding to BABA (which I have been), KMI and possibly SHOP. Most of these are pure growth plays. I have a bias (and risk exposure) towards cyber security, China and technology. A couple are recovery and income plays (KKR and KMI). Most of these plays also represent a top down mega theme investing approach that I am onboard with, including: Ageing – NCLH & MZOR; the Cloud, IoT & Cyber security – INBK, PAYC, SWIR, NTES, BABA, IMPV & CYBR, and China: CTRP, BABA & NTES & Natural Gas: KMI.
2) Total % gain rankings
# Ticker %
1 CEVA 691.5%
2 CTRP 208.7%
3 TAL 172.2%
4 AMD 140.4%
5 PANW 135%
6 NTES 114.6%
7 MZOR 102.8%
8 SHOP 102.6%
9 NTAP 90.1%
10 APHQF 88.2%
11 ACBFF 82.0%
12 ABMD 71.7%
13 NOAH 66.1%
14 C 61.2%
15 CCL 47.7%
This list includes a lot of Saul stocks as well as quite a lot of Chinese stocks. I’m probably closest to taking my gains off the table with CEVA, ABMD (which I already top sliced at 130) and C. Interestingly this list includes some long held positions (CEVA, CTRP & AMD) as well as some very young positions (SHOP, APHQF & ACBFF).
3) 2017 YTD % gain rankings
# Ticker %
1 SWIR 79.9%
2 CYH 74.4%
3 GOGL 45.0%
4 NTES 41.7%
5 DWCH 38.2%
6 SHOP 38.1%
7 APHQF 33.6%
8 INFN 27.8%
9 AMD 27.5%
10 SN 27.4%
11 BOX 27.1%
12 HUBS 26.6%
13 FTNT 24.0%
14 TAL 23.3%
15 SB 22.6%
My 2017 strongest advancers includes both current high momentum stocks as well as some older positions that have bounced back with the oil price and cyclical recovery in play (admittedly a few from some very bombed out positions - which I should have never entered or exited a lot earlier in the downturn).
Buy and Sell Trades:-
In the January and February time period I exited BOFI and redeployed proceeds into PAYC which was a miraculous pair trade. I added to BABA when it fell back below $90 and I topped up/averaged down on Twilio when it fell below 28.
Watch List:-
I am very interested in adding to my Criteo position and would have several times had I been able to trade afterhours or at inconvenient SG times - Criteo has seen some wild swings of late. I’d also like to raise my position in BX to a full position from a current half position. I’m also considering initiating positions in FB, Square and Paypal although I want to streamline my long tail before or in the process.
Anyhow – thanks for reading and hope it was interesting/useful. All comments welcome (although please don’t go off on one about the risk in Chinese companies - I think we did that one to death).
Cheers
Ant
