I run investments in both the UK (an investment legacy from my UK origins focused mainly on stable high yield income producing investments) as well as here in Singapore, (where I have been living for approaching 12 years).

My Singapore investments are split between a US portfolio and an Asia portfolio (listed equities in Singapore, Hong Kong and Australia). My US portfolio is principally a Saul style pure growth portfolio whilst my Asia portfolio is a mix of High Yield income producers (mostly REITs) and Asia located growth plays (e.g. Ali Baba, Meituan Dianping and Afterpay). This Portfolio summary will focus only on the US portfolio.

The US portfolio has produced outsized returns since discovering Saul’s board - I’m up ~300% since 2016 Year End (and that doesn’t factor in ongoing withdraws during the period whilst getting my own consulting business up and running with my business partner).

The portfolio has also gone through a considerable reconstitution. Going back 4 years I had 120+ stocks in my US portfolio and very low concentration amongst holdings, (my top 15 holdings were between 1.5% and 2.5% in value), I had a lot of long held positions with many investments under water and if I’m honest with myself a lot of equities where the investment thesis had changed and I had not acted accordingly.

As of today my US portfolio is down to below 50 positions with much more substantial investment sizes and higher overall concentration. My holding period has come down although I still own stocks for longer in duration than many on this board and will tend to stick with positions when conviction and investment theses remain strong even if there might be short term weaknesses in the share price or quarter to quarter transitions. Cloud and tech now dominate my portfolio in terms of holdings and value and I’m no longer allocating investment towards old economy plays no matter how favourable the situations or the tailwinds. I have also reduced my exposure to China considerably for a number of reasons, including; the tailing off of its hypergrowth emerging era, the delisting risk in the US and the availability of China plays on the HK market. In common with others on this board the position sizes are driven by a combination of performance and conviction – as a result positions are stratified into tiers within the portfolio. My investment selections, entries and exits are now financial/business performance driven as far as possible and there’s no room for story or narrative investing, turnaround speculation or value fishing. Key mega themes that I do pay attention to and am comfortable maintaining outsized exposure to include: eCommerce (~20%), Cybersecurity (~15%), Big Data (35%), Fintech (~5-10%) and throughout that – the Cloud. These mega themes are in part a function of secular tailwinds and in part the respective TAMs involved. I have also had exposure to Genomics although I have exited that sector for now.


The top tier ~10% positions include: Shopify, Crowdstrike, TTD and represent my highest conviction positions together with outstanding growth rates and market positions.

The second tier of 3-6% positions are high conviction strong growth plays including a mix of mature performers (MongoDB, Alteryx and Square) as well as young stars (Cloudflare, Zoom, Teladoc, Elastic, Datadog, Palantir and Snowflake).

The third tier of 1-3% positions is a mix of: early stage positions (Upstart, ZScaler, Skilz and Exp World), deliberately lower exposure situations - either due to either lower conviction and/or lower growth levels (Pure Storage, Fastly, Digital Turbine and Nutanix) or sector over exposure and self enforced limits (e.g. eCommerce in the case of MercadoLibre and SEA)

Outside the top 20, other notable and/or recent positions that I am: following with interest, considering building a position in and seeing some high returns with include: Peloton, Asana, Digital Turbine, Acuity Ads, Lightspeed and Fiverr.

Roku & Okta and a few gene sequencing players are also on my watchlist. Snowflake, Fiverr and ZScaler are positions I am looking to build with most interest (or re-build in the case of ZScaler).

3 holdings I would mention that sit outside of my US portfolio include:

Afterpay at ~10% of my US portfolio in value (which I hold in my Asia portfolio and via an Australia listing), up over 300% in 2020 and up over 500% for me overall.

Ali Baba at ~5% of my US portfolio in value (which I hold in in my Asia portfolio via an HK listing) and is probably a candidate for a 2-10 trillion $ franchise.

Meituan Dianping at 1.25% of my US portfolio in value with stellar returns to date (250%) and another potential trillion $ business in the making

Buys & Sells in the Month

New positions: Zoom info (end of April)
**Additions:**The Trade Desk, Upstart & Snowflake
Exits: Kinder Morgan & Monroe Corporation (2 non Saul like investments that were yield plays that deserved redeploying).

Couldn’t resist adding to Trade Desk and Upstart after their substantial and undeserved pull backs and topping up on Snowflake after their amazing results.


Monthly Performance

Month US Port S&P
Jan   +6.42%  -1.1%
Feb   +0.16%  +2.6%
Mar   -13.98% +4.2%
Apr   +4.93%  +5.2%
May   -0.98%  +0.5%
YTD   -4.73%  +11.9% 

My portfolio ended down -4.73% on the month, having previously reached an all time high in February (up 20%+ for the year at that point from which I’m ~25% under water). I ended May down 4.73% for the year to date, (accounting for withdraws), having clawed back from a major intra month low point.

Overall portfolio allocation rankings, theme & YTD returns

**#  Holding        Portfolio(%) Previous Mth (%) Mega-Theme           	YTD-SP-Change(%)**
1  Shopify        18.2%        17.1%            eCommerce/Fintech/Cloud   +  9.8% 
2  Crowdstrike	  13.4%        12.4%            Cybersecurity/Cloud       +  4.9%	        
3  The Trade Desk 7.5%         8.7%             Digital                   - 26.6%	        
4  Zoom           5.9%         5.6%             Cloud                     -  1.7%
5  DataDog        5.3%         4.9%             Big Data/Cloud            -  7.5%
6  Square         4.2%         4.6%             Fintech/eCommerce/Cloud   +  2.2%
7  Snowflake      3.8%         3.4%             Big Data/Cloud            - 15.4%
8  Palantir       3.8%         3.7%             Big Data/Cloud            -  2.5%
9  MongoDB        3.3%         3.3%             Big Data/Cloud            - 18.7%
10 Cloudflare     3.1%         3.2%             Big Data/Cloud            +  8.0%
11 Elastic        3.0%         3.1%             Big Data/Cybersecurity    - 19.1%
12 Teladoc        2.7%         3.1%             Cloud                     - 24.7%
13 Sea            2.6%         2.6%             eCommerce/Fintech/Cloud   + 27.2% 
14 MercadoLibre   2.3%         2.7%             eCommerce/Fintech         - 18.9%
15 Pure Storage   2.2%         2.3%             Big Data/Cloud            - 15.7%
16 Nutanix        2.2%         1.9%             Big Data/Cloud            -  1.1%
17 Alteryx        2.0%         2.1%             Big Data                  - 36.1%	
18 Fastly         1.8%         2.4%             Big Data/Cloud            - 46.0%
19 ZScaler        1.7%         1.6%             Cybersecurity/Cloud       -  2.8%
20 Upstart        1.3%         0.7%             Digital/Fintech           +263.7%

NB 2021 YTD SP Change are share price changes not portfolio position gains

Total % gain rankings

**#  Holding		%	Thesis Check	Conviction**
1  Shopify		1875%	On Track	High
2  The Trade Desk	 549%	On Track	High
3  Square		 423%	On Track	High 
4  MercadoLibre          403%	On Track	High
5  Crowdstrike		 273%	On Track	High 
6  MongoDB 		 219%	On Track	Medium
7  Zoom 		 210%	On Watch	Medium
8  Cloudflare		 152%	On Track	High
9  Teladoc		 114%	On Track	Medium 
10 Datadog		  84%	On Track	High 
11 Digital Turbine        75%	On Track	Medium
12 Alteryx		  66%	On Watch	Medium 
13 Elastic		  64%	On Track	Medium
14 Palantir		  47%	On Track	High
15 Asana		  45%	On Watch	Medium
16 Exp World		  42%	On Watch	Medium
17 Sea			  41%	On Track	High
18 Upstart 	  	  22%   On Track	Medium 
19 Peloton		  11%  	On Watch	Medium
20 UP Fintech		   4%	On Track	Medium

NB Gains are actual gains of investment holdings not % change since beginning of the year


TAM & Penetration Rates for Top Holdings

**#  Holding        YOY Rev Growth(%) TTM ($bn)  TAM ($bn) Penetration (%) Comment**
1  Shopify        110%              $3.45      $250      1.4%            Calculated as 5% take rate of $5trn eCommerce mkt
2  Crowdstrike     74%              $0.87       $37      2.4%       
3  The Trade Desk  37%              $0.90      $725      0.1%
4  Zoom           369%              $2.65       $30      8.8%            Combining V/C & unified CAAS market
5  DataDog         51%              $0.67       $24      2.8%            Unified monitoring = $8bn
6  Square         267%             $13.18      $160      8.2%            TTM includes Bitcoin revs
7  Snowflake      110%              $0.71       $84      0.8%
8  Palantir        49%              $1.20      $119      1.0% 
9  MongoDB         38%              $0.59       $63      0.9%
10 Cloudflare      51%              $0.48       $35      1.4%
11 Elastic         38%              $0.55       $53      1.0%
12 Teladoc         69%              $1.37      $121      1.1%
13 Sea            147%              $5.42      $150      3.6%            PC download and mobile gaming $97bn SE Asia ecommerce & payments $30bn
14 MercadoLibre   111%              $4.7        $35     13.4%            5% take rate of 5% ecommerce penetration of a $5trn retail market + consumer banking
15 Pure Storage    12%              $1.73       $50      3.5%
16 Nutanix          8%              $1.33       $90      1.5%
17 Alteryx          9%              $0.51       $50      1.0%
18 Fastly          35%              $0.29       $35      0.8%
19 ZScaler         60%              $0.60       $72      0.7%            SAM
20 Upstart         90%              $0.28       $92      0.3%            AI Insuretech 

One of the observations I would make looking at TTM revenues and run rates as of 2021 is that our SaaS companies are starting to reach the $1bn mark. I haven’t looked at Market Cap or Enterprise Value for my holdings in this exercise (which I’m considering doing in the coming months), but these clearly have risen over the years and whilst EV/Sales ratios may be holding constant, our companies are still maintaining superior and outlying growth rates in the order of 50%+ even if slowing gradually.

Whilst this isn’t in itself an issue and doesn’t keep me up at night, it does make me think that aside from just holding the positions until the underlying story changes, we might need to recalibrate our thinking of where we look for growth. Traditionally the small emerging players have offered us speedster growth opportunities but some of our holdings are now becoming large enterprises and in some cases profitable. We might be sleep walking our way into a mature high growth portfolio composition as opposed to the emerging super high growth portfolio we have typically been used to.

I know I have stuck with companies that have evolved into fully fledged enterprises with sustained growth and established profitability levels (such as Shopify and The Trade Desk), when Saul has opted for switching to catch the next big wave that the swell is producing but we are looking at scale being reached in our portfolio almost across the board faster than we have ever experienced.

This isn’t a good thing or a bad thing and maybe not a concern for a conscious strategic think on this but it’s probably worth being aware of.

Comments & Notes

  1. Shopify – cornerstone investment in a top class business with the largest TAM in the world, supported by substantial tailwinds and expecting a future $1 trillion potential, watching for post covid new normal in eCommerce and 2021 laps with pandemic growth in 2020. Revenue Growth accelerating

  2. Crowdstrike – One of the fastest growing companies in a rock solid sector with an expanding TAM, watching for competition from ZScaler and others. Revenue Growth declining

  3. The Trade Desk – A disruptor in a massive TAM with a strong moat, watching for dynamics between DSP and SSP, CTV progress and browser/device privacy measures. Revenue Growth declining

  4. Zoom – a disruptor in the making with ultra high growth rates, looking for post pandemic new normal growth and laps with pandemic growth peak in 2020 and the emergence of Zoom phone which doubles its TAM and additional Zoom platform innovation Revenue Growth declining

  5. Datadog – best in class in the unified monitoring space. Maintaining strong growth rates but dropping, watching for leadership position and declines in growth. Revenue Growth declining

  6. Square – strong fundamentals, very high growth rates operating in multiple significant opportunities. Bitcoin and fintech payment wallets offer massive potential upside. Watching for continued Cash App expansion and adoption. Revenue Growth accelerating

  7. Snowflake – Incredible technology supported by the big data mega theme of our time. Has potentially the greatest sales efficiency of any business model with expansion coming from underlying data storage and usage growth. Extraordinary leadership and cornerstone investors. Triple digit RPO/revenue growth rates. Looking out for potential emerging competition and growth rate declines vs ultra high valuation. Revenue Growth declining

  8. Palantir – AI disruptor and potential leader in commercial and military/govt space. If Palantir can genuinely become either the de-facto operating system for the organisation or the de-facto AI operating system this might have previously un-imaginable potential. Top quality visionary leaders with a strong track record. Revenue Growth accelerating

  9. MongoDB – disrupting a sizeable space against an established player, benefitting from strong big data tailwinds. Watching for declining growth rates, penetration of Atlas and competition from native AWS DB solutions. Revenue Growth level

  10. Cloudflare – strong CDN player with high growth rates, improving competitive position, strong customer acquisition count and new solution/offerings emerging. Watching for continued growth, edge computing adoption and potential competition from Fastly. Revenue Growth level

  11. Elastic – undervalued but proven track record in a sweet spot of multiple optionalities including security, application monitoring and big data. Revenue Growth declining

  12. Teladoc – leader in telehealth with the combined Teledoc and Livongo offerings with strong underlying growth with solid tailwinds irrespective of Covid. Looking for additional disease management solutions and geographic expansion together with threats from changes within the US healthcare system

  13. Sea – in the sweetspot of eCommerce, mobile gaming and fintech and increasingly dominating SE Asia. Obtaining digital banking licenses and ramping up offsite & physical retail payment wallet/payment processing services. Expanding into India, MEA and LatAm. Backed by Tencent. Looking for continued triple digit growth and achieving profitability. Revenue Growth accelerating

  14. MercadoLibre – the Amazon of LatAm with a strong moat and fintech business driving massive growth in a highly unbanked region. Watching for competition from Stone, Amazon and Sea as well as local market challenges in LatAm. Revenue Growth accelerating

  15. Pure Storage – storage market disruptor with strong underlying fundamentals having passed through a business model transition. Supported by strong tailwinds. Looking for product set expansion and growth re-acceleration. Revenue Growth accelerating

  16. Nutanix – under valued, under respected disruptor with a large TAM supported by strong tailwinds negotiating multiple business model transitions. Looking for growth re-ignition. Vying for the position of THE operating system of the “cloud” vs VMWare. Revenue Growth accelerating

  17. Alteryx – former growth star with a pandemic growth challenge and accounting model transition together with a shift to cloud from on prem/hybrid solution. Looking for growth resumption, successful partnership outcomes and new product launch. Revenue Growth accelerating

  18. Fastly – former strong growing CDN player working through headwinds of TikTok bans in India and US and threatening interference. Looking out for client retention/expansion metrics and growth resumption. Revenue Growth declining

  19. ZScaler – vying with Cloudstrike for the premier cybersecurity player. Represents the next generation of fully cloud based security. Growth reaccelerating and positive operational metrics looking stronger by the quarter. Elite management calibre. Revenue Growth accelerating

  20. Upstart – best in class AI disrupter of financial profiling and risk management across financial services and insurance industry. Revenue Growth level