AMZN: AWS Revenue run rate $100 B

In this very board someone predicted AWS will be $100 B revenue run rate at some point. The smart guys laughed him out. The prediction was made on 7/27/2014. In less than a decade AWS run rate is $100 B.

Choose your pundits wisely.

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19% YoY at $100 B + run rate!

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Meanwhile we have some indication that the growth rate of cloud computing is slowing. Re Microsoft earnings report on Azure. They are running into constraints slowing growth.

Will they all need nuclear power plants to provide energy?

Yes. I know, we are still the “peak of inflated expectation” in AI cycle, the cycle will turn and we will hit “trough of disillusionment” and that too will turn… now, how long/ in years or months these will be I don’t know. But nuclear power is not going to be up and running overnight. So they have to plan ahead.

MSFT cloud growth has a long runway.

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AWS in the latest earnings call talking about 3 digit growth in AI. AI is going to soon create some serious issues around electricity generation, transmission and even cost.

What if hyperscalers are willing to pay a premium for power, and will that drive price for consumers or will consumers have to live with shortage? black-out’s, brown-outs?

I hope folks are thinking about this.

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And FERC rejects… FERC rejected talen energy’s increasing power supply to AWS data center.

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AWS FY sales $107 B with 19% growth, and $40 B operating income; AWS alone should be worth, assuming 25 multiple on operating income, $1 T.

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AWS is projecting $600 B revenue by 2036…

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