June 2022 - week 3
Ugliness continues -9% to almost -14%
Closed out ABBV
Added to ABEV
AAPL nibble
RA nibble
BRK-B nibble
GSM nibble
QCOM nibble
AY div reinvested
6/21
Opportunity to build some losses for future offsets
- Dumped most of ARKF position
- Started position in new shipping idea - GRIN
- Nibble on IEP in Roth ac
- Trimmed APWC in taxable (more losses to offset)
- Nibble on IEP
- Replaced some of the ETF bet with BDRY
June 2022 - week 4
Very active out of the holiday on 6/21
And continued with nibbles - ZIM, QQQ, QCOM, DIS, GSM & RA
Shipping continues to get slammed. BDI dropping steadily, pulling down dry bulk shipping names. While on the subject, FLNG announced 24 years of time charters on 3 vessels. The deals increase charter backlog by $750M. That’s in addition to about 30 years of tanker charter coverage
July 15, 2022
Half way thru July, and port has been relatively stable this month.
Only addition to Top10 has been ZIM on 7/5
In DRIP ac,
- have double-downed on BNS in two weeks
- Nibbled on SHOP
- Another nibble on GSL and moved up into DRIP ac (as formalholding)
- Closed out CPNG on 7/15 bounce (wash potential)
- More GSM
In Trading ac
- Dumped most of CPNG on 7/15 bounce
In Roth ac
- More IIVI (Coherent merger done)
- More ABEV
- More RA
- Nibbled on SHOP
7/19
One small GSL bite on 7/15, two small GSL bites today - just completed a doubled down on GSL.
A couple of 2nd hand container vessel sales in July 2022 have given me better data points to reasonable estimate GSL’s fleet. There’s other good developments
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Refinancing of 2024 Notes at a lower rate (good debt punt) and other high rate facility.
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Nice rate for GSL Ningbo with a great forward charter starting in mid-2023
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Not paying attention to my typing messed up my MRNA trade (will try again tomorrow)
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GOGL nibble in Trading ac
7/25-26
sold initial TLKF shares in DRIP ac for loss
washed shares with purchase in Trading ac 12.5% lower
Another VEEV nibble in Roth ac
Another SHOP nibble in DRIP ac
Another AMZN nibble in DRIP ac
Trimmed PDT in DRIP ac
Came up with plan to replace the “lost” PDT income
Wacky behavior from TKLF - I think fairly misunderstood idea
Aug 2022
Been doing some clean-up and trimming in July-Aug 2022
- Closed out APPN with a small gain
- Been trimming PHUN. Token position left in Trading ac
- Been selectively trimming IEP
- Traded SHOP in both Roth and DRIP ac
- Traded AMZN in DRIP ac
- Trimmed APWC in Roth ac
- MRNA has been trimmed and re-built
- Doubled down on GSL with a plan. Will exit the higher priced shares on a decent bounce.
- Closed out NM with loss
- Selectively adding to ZIM. Plan is to trim higher priced shares on a decent bounce
- Selectively adding to GOGL (could be a trade, could be a hold)
- Selectively adding to SBLK
- Closed out ABBV. Have started rebuilding
Aug 24
After a nice 6 week period where the port recovered significantly to about -4.4%, the last 5 market days have been ugly. Now back to -8.7%
Small caveat: A few dividend payers e.g. GNK, GSL trade ex-div already.
FLNG released Q2 results late yesterday.
Rev slightly off expectations (abt $1M off), but the company will pay a 50c special div, plus the 75c reg div in Q2.
8/23
Nibbled on SHOP - restart the ride 
10/03/22
1st trading day of Q4 2022!
Jumped in with a few nibbles
- SBLK in Roth ac
- FLGT in Taxable ac
- TSLA in Roth ac
- TSLA in Taxable ac
Through 10/21/22
Ongoing reset of some ideas this month
- Trimming IEP, VZ, GOGL, SBLK
- Adding a little to CPNG, GNK, QCOM, GSM
- Nibbles NVDA, O, TSLA
Falling knives in Nov? Maybe
11/1 AMZN nibbles
11/1 Another ZIM trim
11/2 ENTG nibble on whack-down
The latter came to my attention last month. Great longer term track record as a boring supplier. Today’s 20% whack made it appealing -so, a nibble.
Fairly active day - 11/04
ABEV reached target. Trimmed in Roth ac, in Trading ac
On bounce, trimmed GOGL in Roth ac, in Trading ac
Nibble on QCOM
On bounce, trimmed GNK
Nibble on AAPL
Nibble on AMZN
On bounce, trimmed VALE
After skimming the reports of tanker companies reporting Q3 2022 results, I ask myself, how did I miss the boat so bad? Did I put blinders on, and assume Q3 would be the weak Q (as it usually is)? The recovery seems stronger in the products side. Well, Q3 is definitely stronger in the product side. As INSW results demonstrated - on the crude side,
Q3: Aframax rates > Suezmax rates > VLCC rates
and
Q4: VLCC rates beginning to recover faster.
11/08 - Monetized most of ABEV in taxable ac. ABEV had a target price, it was reached. At least a few slices of ABEV turned into two round-trips that ended with a net between 32 - 38% Even more special in a year that has played out like 2022.
Who’d-a-thunk tech would get slammed this hard? Continue with plan to selectively build up tech positions. The last few trading days - more QCOM, more TSLA, more AAPL. Watching CRM
11/14
Beyond 30 days from prior transaction on a couple of holdings - VZ, VATE. Nibbled on both. And CPNG too.
Then, later in the day, BNS also.
11/16
Rough day - multiple entities reporting Q3 2022, including ZIM, GLNG, GOGL, GSM
- GLNG: I dunno, seems like ordering long-lead items for a new FLNG design is a positive.
- Did nibble on more GSM after perusal of Q3 results. If prior quarter was the benchmark, then yes, somewhat underwhelming. But GSM is also increasing capacity via the restart of a lower cost facility.
- GOGL: Not really surprised. Already knew Q3 was going to be lower -both against Q3 2021, and prior Q, or Q2 2022. Had already trimmed GOGL in anticipation of weaker Qtr.
11/22
A swap
- reduced my SHOP bet
- double down on NAT after pullback
11/21
- Added another GSM nibble
11/24
Thanksgiving - I do have some items to be thankful for - job, functioning car, health, place to live, savings, some friends, etc.
Dividend basket has performed well YTD with lots of help from a group of shipping ideas. The dividends from the shipping ideas have been over half of all the dividends paid by the basket, and will probably end 2022 around 60% of dividends paid. That said, I don’t expect the shipping names to dominate dividend payouts in 2023. At least, not with the current shipping holdings. At the moment, the basket has three dry bulk shipping pure-plays i.e. SBLK, GNK, GOGL and the current market conditions projected forward hint at a lower payout. That’s not definite - that’s the projected. Market conditions or factors could change, and the dry bulk names could get a spruce up.
For now, dividend basket expectations are tempered in 2023. But will be reassessed before year-end, and during other points in 2023.
Thru 12/2
Added to QCOM at the start of the week.
Mid-week, QCOM took over Top position in self-managed account.
Still thinking about how to reposition the dividend basket. Some interesting ideas beginning to factor in. Old school DGI name - Brown & Brown (BRO), slightly different way to have Icahn exposure - add CVI. For growth, add FRO on anticipated improvement. Fleet seems well positioned even with the EURN merger uncertainty.
12/28
Ok, after a hectic travel period, finally able to peek at the port for the first time in about 2.5 weeks. Lots of blood in a few select names - TSLA, ZIM, GSM. With the exception of ZIM, other shipping ideas have held up relatively well. As 2022 draws to an end, might be looking at a bunch of names.