And now 2022

Investment Analysis Clubs Hohum's RollerCoaster Ride
1

New year, new challenges
First day was positive, then things went downhill the rest of the week
Was a good week to be “all-in” with BRK-B :wink:
But my strategy was a series of small pluses and small minuses

Added to ABEV +
Nibble on CPNG +
Added to FLNG +
Added to AY in taxable ac +
Added to AY in Roth ac +
Trimmed NMM in Roth ac -
Trimmed GOGL in Roth ac (higher cost shares) -
Trimmed PFE in Roth ac -
Trimmed PFE in taxable ac -
Nibbled on FLGT in Roth ac +
Another nibbled on CPNG +
Restarted DDOG in Roth ac +
Exited IIVI in Roth ac -
Nibbled on AEHR after sell-off +
Nibbled on PHUN in Roth ac

Overall Port after week 1: -1.3%

2

01/19
Mid-week check: Looking dark for tech
Container shipping looks okay - another ZIM nibble
DAC had a couple of positive developments

  • Increase in contract backlog
  • Sale of two 20-yo vessels @ $130M

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3788622-danaos-announces-1b-in…

3

01/24
Earlier in the day, quick check suggested the port was down over 9%, but recovered as the day progressed.
Clean-up round the edges

  • Exited BHP
  • Exited AMRS
  • Added to SBLK under-$20
  • Exited SHIP

Had trimmed DAC yesterday.

4

01/28
Bounce I was not expecting. Took it as an opportunity to reset some ideas

  • Trimmed MRNA

  • Trimmed NBEV

  • Trimmed AAPL

  • Trimmed DDOG

  • Exited OP

  • On its bounce, NMM swapped place with MRNA (might be short lived)

  • Surprising dry bulk shipping bounce today. Was expecting the sector to trend lower thru Lunar New Year, and bounce back post holiday. No BDRY in port. But happy to participate via SBLK, NMM & GOGL.
    Shipping basket now 15% of port and with OP clean-up (mostly), a lower cost basis.

  • FLNG got its major bounce yesterday (01/27). Today pullback not too concerning. Most significant position increase among shipping ideas.

  • Nibbled on mouse (DIS) today

5

02/10/22 - Intraday, accounts turned back to positive YTD. Might have maintained it thru Close

02/11/22 - Then it was gone.

Some trimming this week
GSM in Roth and trading ac
UPST in Trading ac
PHUN in Roth ac

6

Haven’t posted here in a while.

03/08/22
After yesterday’s nasty hit, decided to do some shaking up.
Not huge moves, but lots of small moves

  • Trimmed APWC on thebounce
  • Trimmed FAX position
  • Added to DIS
  • Trimmed TMC in one accounts
  • Added a little more PHUN
  • Trimmed TMC in a second account
  • Trimmed FLNG on bounce
  • Added DDOG in Roth ac
  • Added DDOG in taxable ac

03/07/22

  • Nibbled on QCOM

Was perusing tankers today, and noted that Jens Martin Jensen was back with Fredriksen backed entities (FRO & GOGL boards)

7

3/17

  • CPNG nibble in Roth ac
  • APWC shares in taxable ac washed
  • Closed out ZIM position in Roth @ $90+, then watched share price pull back
  • Missed opportunity with GTLB. Still might have some upside
8

4/4/22
The ZIM dividend posted to account today - Wow! A massive payout.
Shipping basket got pummeled today. But, took it as an opportunity to add

  • ZIM nibble
  • BDRY nibble
  • GNK nibble

= Trimmed ABEV in Roth ac

  • Trimmed ABEV in Trading ac

  • Trimmed ABEV in Trading ac

  • Trimmed SPI on bounce

  • JMIA got a nice bounce

  • TMC got a nice bounce

9

4/11
Grr! 2nd or 3rd consecutive sell-off in port, and ac is now negative YTD

  • Locked in ABEV gains in both Roth and taxable ac
  • Closed out NBEV
  • Locked in FLNG gains in both Roth and taxable ac
  • GNK nibble
10

4/19

  • Realized NM gains today. Second time I have traded NM on a short-term basis (1st time - 3 day holding, 2nd time - 2 weeks holding)
  • Trimmed FLGT on bounce. Similar thinking to my plans with MRNA. FLGT less concerned if it becomes a disallowed loss.
  • Glad I started rebuilding ZIM stake under $60/sh
11

4/21

  • Added to the ZIM stake. After reading yet another uncertain SA article on ZIM, I start my ZIM bear model with $7.50 dividend and $72 price target. Say Q1 - Q3 div of 50c, and Q4 (paid in 2023) of $6.
    While a couple of recent SA authors have worried about higher leases, it isn’t my immediate concern. AFAIK, at this time, the only high rates are the Panamax size vessels from NMM @ $52K+ daily. Will wait to see if this is accurate as quarterly results are announced.

  • What’s the deal with NM’s bounce today? If it heads higher, I will seriously consider shorting the name.

  • FLNG trim looking good now :slight_smile:

  • The unwind has started.
    VZ bounced over $55/sh today. Decided to trim the stake. Oldest holding in the port, but it was time to think about redeploying the proceeds. Adds to the war-chest.

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12

4/25 - 4/28

  • Nibbled back some VZ
    = Nibbled on GSL after pull-back

  • Nibbled on brk-B

  • Nibbled on DIS (Roth ac)

  • Nibbled on DIS (taxable ac)

  • On 4/28 bounce, exited FB (for loss)

  • Seadrill announced re-listing event (Oslo) & shares jumped out-the-gate, up 25% (Have the IB acc offers trading possibilities)

  • Roth ac contribution for 2022 complete

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13

5/2 - 5/4

  • Exit GLNG in taxable ac (tiny gain)
  • AY nibble below $30
  • GOGL bounce: Realized Roth ac gains
  • VZ nibble in Roth ac
  • GOGL continues rising: Realized tax ac gains
  • Exited FAX
  • Another VZ nibble in taxable ac

5/4
After hours, VATE released Q1 results: Revenue increase from the construction segment; Meh on the other two (building out TV stations with no significant rev improvements)

Port recovering from its negative trend: Was -(8.5-9)%, now around -3% and cash stake builds up

14

5/9
Uglier day than most, port ends with lowest close in 2022 - down ~9%
The hits were everywhere - tech, shipping, large cap, mid-cap, microcap

  • CPNG, FLNG, TMC largest % drops

Nibbled on QCOM, GNK, FLNG
Bloody falling knives?
No idea. But, the strategy worked with VZ

During this carnage, companies are reporting.
5/9 - DHT reported. No major surprise - good tanker idea. Selling two older VLCCs at above-avg price of $38M & $40M
5/5 - GNK reported. Div hike (surprise #1), paid down more debt (surprise #2), around 26% TC coverage

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15

5/10

  • ABEV nibble in Roth ac
  • NM returned to its target purchase area: $3.20/sh - nibble
  • AAPN bounced on results - trimmed

NMM results today. Only got a chance to skim them after market close.

  • Acquired 4 Aframax/LR2 newbuilds from K Shipbuilding (formerly STX) for around $62M each with add-ons. Two of the vessels have 5-year charters, with escalation options on 5 1-year options. Charterer has similar charter options on one, or both, the other two newbuilds.
  • Not completely new data. Existing charter coverage (in particular, 99% coverage in container fleet) more than covers operating expenses.
  • Snagged a two-year charter for the newbuild VLCC that delivers later this year. Decent rate and bareboat out.
  • NMM homepage removed the fleet data. Also, used to be in their presentation material - but not anymore. Had pre-announced distribution - 5c/unit
  • Two older 8200-TEU vessels sold
  • Additional financing agreements
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16

5/11
Earnings keep coming. Today, FLNG, GSM and (After Hours) CPNG

  • FLNG nice results and maintained div @ 75c/sh
  • GSM bounced nicely early in the day. Took the opportunity to trim some higher priced shares.
    What I liked about their results was the cash and working capital increases - nice to see. Shares trickled down as the day progressed
  • Trim GOGL in taxable ac (cannot complain abt $13.91/sh exit)
  • CPNG sold off prior to the earnings announcement. Nice rev and margins
    https://seekingalpha.com/news/3837257-coupang-shares-soar-on…

Having seen shares walloped, was kind of hesitant to add. Will watch tomorrow.

17

Ending week 2 in May
05/12
A very ugly and wretched day - port sunk to its lowest point in 2022.
Used past experience to just hold tight.
So I waited

5/13
No guarantee there was going to be a bounce. But, a nice bounce did show up.

  • More QCOM
  • Restarted CRM
  • GNK nibble in Roth ac
  • TKLF nibble in taxable ac
18

5/16 - 5/26
Results:
From ZIM, SBLK, GOGL, GLNG, GNK
ZIM: $2.85/sh div - was expecting $1.5 - $2
SBLK: $1.65/sh div - was expecting $1 - $1.25
GOGL: 50c/sh div - was expecting 50c - 60c. Did not expect share price to clear $15, so I monetized some gains.
GLNG: No div expected. But a productive asset sale - agreeing to convert Golar Arctic to an FSRU and selling the vessel. Laid on plans for FLNG Mk1, Mk2 & Mk3
GNK: 79c/sh div - set no target, but expected lower than Q4 2021.

A bunch of nibbles
GSM, SPI, APPN, CPNG, CRM

Port has recovered slightly the last couple of weeks: -5.5% with most shipping ideas gaining, and holding up really well.

19

6/8
Shipping smack-down: ZIM, NMM, GOGL, GNK, FLNG, NM
Took the opportunity to add to ZIM stake.

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20

June 2022 - Week 2
Quite ugly! Went from around -5% to -9% in about 4 days.
Shipping ideas probably abt half of the losses (ZIM, SBLK, GOGL, FLNG in particular)
But ugliness from QCOM, CPNG, AAPL, MRNA, BRK-B,

Nice CRM exit and small gain

AMZN nibble - Ack! Still falling

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