Wall Street is betting on big home price declines in coastal areas.
intercst
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Depends how far “underwater” the homes are…
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As the article points out, it’s a very slow process. It also notes that…
While their firms have advised on hundreds of millions in real estate transactions, neither has found investors to back their bets on the future.
DB2
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Wall Street is betting on big home price declines in coastal areas.
If the advocated purge of “non-Americans” materialized, home and retail prices would crash in Dearborn, MI. Dearborn’s population is 55% middle eastern Muslim.
Steve
Do not forget that although actual water is slow slow slow to rise, emotions regarding fundamentals of life (for most people far more than a mere investment spreadsheet number) are typically stubbornly blind or determinedly optimistic, then focused on other things and maintaining confidence and good cheer and rationalizing and the government gotta gonna do something, and, and…., then at some random irrational moment panic breaks out.
d fb
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Change such as this is more slow motion. Think about how things changed in cities such as Buffalo or Erie over the last 50 years. They stopped growing, the housing stock slowly decayed, downtowns lost their vibrancy. But it took decades.
DB2
New Orleans is slomo. But most of Florida has remained in a fever dream and I expect the awakening will be rough.
I see as the crux amplifying the bubble the various nonsensical governmental flood insurance programs.
And I am looking at trends of personal private property wealth, not population levels. People move slowly, but new buyers bringing new money can vanish damn quickly.
d fb
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Rising insurance rates for storm damage seems to be the driver. If middle class can no longer afford to live there homes go to those who can afford the risk of no insurance or can afford expensive insurance.
That means a limited market with fewer buyers. But they have deeper pockets. Communities become more exclusive. Damaged homes get replaced with more luxurious ones. Does lot value rise or fall? Looks like an open question.
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