Another reason for renewables.

Here is another reason why the US must lead in renewable sciences and usage; Fact check: False claim that Permian Basin oil supply would fuel America for 200 years…



I have not seen the 200 year claim for oil. It is a common claim for natural gas.

“I have not seen the 200 year claim for oil. It is a common claim for natural gas.”

Natural gas is in no better condition. Most of the ‘shale oil’ oil and gas wells poop out quickly… Some peak at six months and are down 90% in two years. You keep drilling tens of thousands of wells a year to keep up production numbers.

“As we will discuss extensively in our upcoming quarterly letter, we believe that the tremendous growth in US natural gas supply, all shale driven, is about to slow dramatically. Both the Marcellus and the Hayneville shale gas play are in the process of plateauing and will begin to exhibit declines in the next several years according to our analysis. These two fields alone represent almost 40% of US supply, and the production growth from these two fields are critical for fulfilling future increase in US natural gas demand.”…

The article goes on to suggest that US prices will rise to $35/mcf - world prices rather quickly as these two prolific fields roll over and decline.

“Many analysts believe that production growth from these two fields are almost unlimited. Our analysis tell us something quite different. We believe both fields will begin to exhibit the first signs of field exhaustion – very similar to what happened with the Barnett and Fayetteville.”

with ever more power plants now converted to NG for either base load or backup for solar as the sun only shines 8 hours a day or less on average… it’s going to be a very ugly situation when that happens.

The article suggests that will be ‘sooner’ rather than ‘later’.

You won’t be able to build enough renewables fast enough to ease that pain. Imagine electric bills and heating bills triple what they are today - and in many cases - already up 50% due to NG gas increases up to $8/mcf.

With $35/mcf NG prices, the economy will go into a deep recession.

there was a great book in 2013 by Bill Powers…

"Cold, Hungry and in the Dark argues that declining productivity combined with increasing demand will trigger a crisis that will cause prices to skyrocket, damage the economy, and have a profound impact on the lives of nearly every North American.

Relying on faulty science, bought-and-paid-for-white papers masquerading as independent research and “industry consultants,” the “shale promoters” have vastly overstated the viable supply of shale gas resources for their own financial gain. This startling exposé, written by an industry insider, suggests that the stakes involved in the Enron scandal might seem like lunch money in comparison to the bursting of the natural gas bubble. Exhaustively researched and rigorously documented, Cold, Hungry and in the Dark:"

Good book. Read it years ago. It already shows that field depletion at the Barnett and Haynesville will lead to quickly depletion peak of the two major (40%) supply fields and rapid decline.



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Plus the estimates of how much is recoverable are notoriously iffy.

Any data on estimate reliability? I would guess + or - 20% is typical.