Ant's Portfolio Update June 2025

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
1

2025 YTD Monthly Closing
Jan +9.8%
Feb +1.6%
Mar -13.8%
Apr -6.7%
May +8.5%

June 30th: +19.0% YTD (down from a YTD peak of +19.5% mid February and up from April low of -25% and up from May’s close of +8.5%)

This has been one of the most volatile 6 months I can remember in my portfolio history with the swing on a par with the dotcom boom/bust around its apex.

This was another strong month building on the the previous 6 weeks. I have to climb another ~30% to reach my portfolio ATH.

Thematically, I’m principally invested in:

eCommerce (20%) - Shopify, MercadoLibre, Global e-Online & SEA

AI & Cloud Infrastructure (25%) - Cloudflare, Pure Storage, Nvidia, Nebius, Astera Labs, Credo, Micron, SuperMicro & Tempus Ai

Software (SaaS/DevOp/Data analytics) (25%) - Palantir, Datadog, Snowflake, GitLab, Monday, Samsara & MongoDB

Cybersecurity (10%) - Crowdstrike, ZScaler, Rubrik, SentinelOne and CyberArk

Fintech/Payments (10%) - SOFI, Toast, Robinhood, Upstart & Bill

AdTech (10%) - The Trade Desk, Applovin and Reddit (ad community)

Recent Activity -
Not much trading activity in June besides another top slice of Palantir and Shopify to purchase some initial positions in CyberArk and Applovin.

Considering trimming Palantir further and exiting Tesla. Would like to build up AppLovin at the right price (rolling over from TTD perhaps) and enter Axon (perhaps from IOT if its share price recovers), perhaps even Transmedics or Coreweave.

Holdings in MDB, S, BILL and SMCI sit closest to the exit door along with NBIS which I am struggling to hold conviction in, (considering switching all NBIS into ALAB).

Missed the window to sell or top slice TTD and IOT further.

Portfolio holdings -
25+ positions with a long tail of 1-2% positions (made up of high conviction, scaling down and scaling up plays):

SHOP - 10%
PLTR - 6.5%
DDOG - 6.5%
NET - 6%
MELI - 5.5%
SNOW - 5%
PSTG - 4.5%
MNDY - 4.5%
CRWD - 4.5%
TTD - 4%
ZS - 3.5%
NVDA - 3.5%
IOT - 3%
UPST - 2.5%
HOOD - 2.5%
SOFI - 2.5%
RBRK - 2.5%
MU - 2%
TSLA - 1.5%
NBIS - 1.5%
MDB - 1.5%
SE - 1.5%
CRDO - 1.5%
GLBE - 1.5%
GTLB - 1.5%
SMCI - 1.5%
S - 1.5%
TOST - 1.5%
ALAB - 1%
CYBR - 0.5%
RDDT - 0.5%
TEM - 0.5%
APP - 0.5%
BILL - 0.5%

Bright spots in the portfolio are: Palantir, Rubrik, Crowdstrike & Robinhood which are at an ATH, MercadoLibre which is also not far off and Cloudflare, Snowflake, SEA, Toast and ZScaler which are at or near to a 52 week high.

Watch list includes…

Lightspeed, Sezzle, ROOT, AXON, FOUR, Arista, Transmedics, Fortinet, Palo Alto, Pagaya & Raspberry PI and Grab.

Bigger Picture -

As sectors, Cyber Security, AI and Cloud infra/DevOps and ex US eCommerce have been relatively strong - as well as profitable SaaS plays/software providers with rising consumption and ones with demonstrable AI use cases. Payments & Fintech had been holding up until the recent retracement although bouncing back strongly of late whilst AdTech is showing signs of weakness in pricing and demand.

The potential for macro damage on a sector and company basis is clearly having an impact. With the prevailing politics and in particular economic and trade policies we are facing some hyper volatility with big winners and losers and not necessarily driven by innate company consideration.

I’m thinking that seeking out growth companies with defensive qualities, (cloud infrastructure, cybersecurity and consumption based rather than seat based models), might do better in these volatile and uncertain times as well as ex US eCommerce and trading plays that benefit from US currency weakness but more importantly are removed from US import/export movements on an intra regional / local to local basis (e.g. MercadoLibre, SEA, Raspberry PI and Grab).

Ant

53 Likes
2

Ant

The %’s tied to tickers in your list add up to 31%. Do these represent your largest holdings? If not what other significant holdings in the remaining 69%?

Thanks, Gray

2 Likes
3

Hi Gray - it adds up to 100%. I’ve been lazy and just added the % intervals for instance NET is 6% but DDOG and PLTR are above 6% but below the next interval of Shopify’s 10%. Similarly everything between TTD and SNOW would be above the 4%+ level.

Ant

3 Likes
4

Hello ant. Id be very curious to hear your personal rational regarding NBIS vs. ALAB? At a glance its obvious that ALAB is 50ish % below ATH and NBIS is hitting them. But what are you looking at between the two?

3 Likes
5

Hi nocollarTim

Good question. Actually I really liked both but wanted to spread risk and didn’t feel completely confident in either.

I probably put about the same amount of capital in each (and the same again for Credo Technologies), as both looked to have strong growth potential. Obviously the investments in Credo and Nebius paid off and Astera Labs has yet to really move.

I probably if anything had a higher conviction in Astera Labs at the time. But why did I not put more into Nebius then?

Well it wasn’t that clear cut. It has certainly come good on its potential but at the time there were a number of concerns that I had:

  1. Extreme concentration risk - I think it was 80-90% in 1 customer - that is improving as it is now below 50%

  2. A flip flop record leading to its DC strategy with the potential for a CoreWeave level of capital intensity

  3. A random side to its business that I’m not sure whether I value (European FSD software), although given how pathetic the Tesla autopilot is on UK/European roads (basically a glorified cruise control and lane control system) and Tesla’s disinterest in demonstrating European FSD in its roadmap, (plus the falling out of love with Tesla cars by European consumers) then maybe it is worth something.

I saw Astera (and Credo), as a relatively safer investment and more understandable business - somewhere between an Arista Networks and a less opaque SuperMicro DC system component business.

Ant

11 Likes
6

CoreWeave (CRWV) Depreciates Its GPUs Over 6 Years, While Its Competitor Nebius Uses A 4-Year Depreciation Period CoreWeave (CRWV) Depreciates Its GPUs Over 6 Years, While Its Competitor Nebius Uses A 4-Year Depreciation Period

Just found this little gem. Coreweave is kind of fudging here as they are taking a longer depreciation period with their GPUs which increases bottom line but NBIS 4 year depreciation is more realistic given the rate of advances in GPU design and function. Who’s numbers will hold up over a longer run? NBIS.

14 Likes