I disagree with all of you because of mass-complacency about:
1. World debt to GDP.
2. Demographics and the complete inability of the main economies to fund their rash promises,
therefore, inevitably, more world debt to GDP and civil unrest.
3. The direct effect of (1) and (2) on the free market, low taxes and limited government (drivers of
4. Every year, there are fewer market participants who know how companies were once valued and, you
could say, should be valued and more who think that, outside tech., everything is quite normal.
It is the elephants in the room which worry me. These are not exactly just picking good stocks or whether the market is going to go down. Artificial interest rates and artificial QE can only be here to stay - until they are not.
I am not saying we should not keep doing what we do. I am saying we are doing it in the Valley of Death. I believe it is customary on these occasions to say
I have been watching these types of things since I got my series 7 (series 6?) license to sell mutual funds in 1984. I have been scared out of the market multiple times, typically at the lows. However, I have been around enough to know that one thing is absolutely guaranteed, the markets will go up and down.
However, if you look at well run companies that have a moat, low debt, and a growing share of a growing market, we can make money no matter what the market does.
By the way, you left out the biggest crisis we will face in the next decade, that is rising water on the East and Gulf Coasts. At sometime there will be crisis of confidence and the there will be serious real estate market problem. If it is as big as the data indicates, we could effectively (Lose the value, not the structure) of two major cities and several mid sized ones. Economically this will be the same as thermonuclear destruction of a couple of cities.
Please note: We are talking loss of value. I recall in 1985, or 1986 when the Saudi’s announced that they would “protect market share” one pundit calculated that 900 billion dollars in wealth evaporated over night. As one that was working in the oil industry in Houston, I can tell you the economic destruction was significant. Yet, when I arrived in Northern Virginia in 1987, as an economic refugee, I found a booming economy. So I even discount the loss of major cities as not enough to stop the massive creation of wealth that will take place in the next 20 years.