I know it was once looked at here; just wondering if anyone owns it.
Today’s report looked pretty good to me, but the stock dropped 10 - 15% after hours. I was just wondering if the market got it right or right?
Report from Align’s website:
Thanks for any insights!
I have a position, went long in November.
Company grew revenue 26.7% yoy which isn’t bad given prior guidance (20-22% growth).
Stock seems to be down on Q1 guidance (20-22% growth) which the company should beat.
Looks like a classic case of “lower the bar, then hop over it”.
I’m sitting tight - ALGN is a monopoly with a growing international brand and its current valuation appears to be fair.
My two cents…
I am recently retired from 42 years of practicing general dentistry. Teeth that were straightened using Invisalign tend to be unstable and prone to relapse. The reasons for this are many, but chief among them is the inability to keep teeth straight unless the patient is committed to wearing the plastic retainers at least at night for several years…even after active orthodontic treatment in the dental office has ended. And, the cost of the plastic retainers is quite high to the patient.
Most patients are better off with conventional band and bracket orthodontic therapy. That is why I never invested in ALGN.
Five years ago, at the age of 40, I made a mid-life investment in me, specifically my teeth, with Invisalign.
In my experience, the price of ALGN was nearly identical to the traditional band and brackets (actually a couple hundred bucks cheaper). But, for me, it was a great option as it allowed me to remove the trays to eat and made for generally easier hygiene. Although my case wasn’t necessary complex, I wore trays for approximately 24 months.
After seeing results and the simplicy of the process in just a few months, I bought shares at $55. Now, they’re handling cases that are increasingly complex, tapping into the teen market and growing sales significantly abroad. Sure there is new competition arising (3M, etc.), but they are the first mover, the market leader and I anticipate they will remain top dog in this niche for many years.
Jim, I’m not a dentist, so pardon my naivety, but it seems that with any method of teeth movement, there will be a need for a retainer of some sort…either cemented to the back of the front teeth or in the form of a plastic retainer for nighttime wear. Personally, I have both. No big deal. I also have a solid set of straight choppers now and I’m a fan of the product. Smiling for now.
I am very happy that ALGN has worked out well for you, Brent. You are obviously a great candidate for the procedure because you are highly motivated and have great self discipline. Folks with your psychological profile will do well with almost all orthodontic techniques. However, the great majority of patients needing orthodontic help are young teens and pre-teens…many of whom are wearing braces simply because it is expected of them. Compliance is obviously much lower for this group…the orthodontist has much more control over the outcome if these cases are treated with traditional fixed appliances.
In any case, keep smiling, Brent and congratulations on your nice orthodontic result! You are a great example of why a mid-life invisalign investment can be so rewarding…especially for adults.
ALGN does have a a nice steady track record of increasing positive earnings for the past 3 years…heck, maybe I’ve just talked myself into buying a few shares!
Thanks for sharing,
Re: "I am very happy that ALGN has worked out well for you, Brent. You are obviously a great candidate for the procedure because you are highly motivated and have great self discipline. Folks with your psychological profile will do well with almost all orthodontic techniques. However, the great majority of patients needing orthodontic help are young teens and pre-teens…many of whom are wearing braces simply because it is expected of them. Compliance is obviously much lower for this group…the orthodontist has much more control over the outcome if these cases are treated with traditional fixed appliances. "
This is exactly why my son has traditional braces instead of Invialign. I was certain that if he used Invisalign that 50% of the time he would find an excuse to not wear them; especially during athletic activities (which he participates in nearly 52 weeks a year)… On the other hand, I didn’t invest in Align because of the teen adoption rate (even though it is going up). I invested because I know quite a few adults who have chosen the product; apparently, today’s selfie generation isn’t just limited to kids and everyone wants to look there best now that everyone carries a camera. When I look at the potential for their market I like to believe that some day they could have as many customers as Facebook does. Traditional braces are horribly uncomfortable and everyday someone is born who will eventually want straighter teeth.
By the way, I’ve noticed over time that Saul doesn’t seem to care much about what analysts have to say regarding estimates. When I started this thread Align Technology had dropped nearly $30 because of abysmal forward guidance (according to the talking heads on TV). The link I provided above gave me the impression that the talking heads and the analysts were full of it and that the market was incorrectly judging the results. I should have purchased more shares at $190 (the price right before my post) but hesitated because it is already one of my top three positions. The price is now up 30% since the time of my post; hopefully someone here was savvy enough to take advantage of the opportunity.