Make no mistake: Apple’s results have always been tied to sales of its flagship iPhone, and that’s unlikely to change anytime soon. During the first nine months of fiscal 2024 (which will end in September), the iPhone was responsible for 52% of Apple’s total sales, so the path to $4 trillion goes through the iPhone.
According to Wall Street, Apple is poised to generate revenue of $390 billion in 2024, giving it a forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of roughly 8.6. Assuming its P/S remains constant, Apple would have to grow its revenue to roughly $465 billion annually to support a $4 trillion market cap. The company could conservatively surpass this threshold by early 2027.
[Wedbush analyst Dan] Ives is more bullish. He believes that if Apple introduces compelling AI technology with its up-and-coming iPhone – and I believe it will – this will act as the linchpin for the next phase of the company’s growth. Not only will Apple likely sell the aforementioned 240 million iPhones in fiscal 2025, but the accompanying sales of hardware and software will combine to add $30 to $40 to Apple’s share price, pushing its market cap above $4 trillion over the coming 12 to 18 months.
Well, we’ll just have to wait, see how the AI rolls out, always good to add more of a cushion, but, yes, definitely a maybe… And we’ve no idea of what changes are coming if the leadership changes, although, I believe Tim has things set up for his successor if there is a change up top… Interesting times, for sure…
Maybe. Just this past May there was a story about John Ternus being Cook’s most likely successor, but also that Tim probably have another three years at the helm:
A new report from Bloomberg today gives an in-depth look at who could replace Tim Cook as Apple’s CEO, who has held the title since 2011 and turns 64 this year. While the report says there’s “no reason to assume that a change at the helm is imminent,” there are multiple possibilities as to who could eventually take over.
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But the report says that “people close to him” believe that Cook will be Apple’s CEO for “at least another three years.” If that pans out, John Ternus is the “most likely successor” to Tim Cook for Apple CEO.
Ternus is currently Apple’s Senior Vice President of Hardware Engineering, and has taken an increasingly visible role at Apple over the last several years.
The report describes Ternus as “well-liked inside Apple,” with praise from Tim Cook, Eddy Cue, and many others. One key factor, too, is that Ternus is 49 years old. This makes him “more likely than other members of the executive team to stick around for a long time.”
Thanks for the memory jogger, I likely read it, but forgot the source article. I think John Ternus has been one of the presenters for events in the past, likely we’ll see him on next weeks event… A hectic week!!
I didn’t buy as early in Apple’s history as you did, but I can’t complain too much. I have yet to sell a single share. My heirs will be richer than I am! (I live very frugally).
I bought in in '93, had nearly frittered away a small inheritance, when an old timer Apple guru, Roger at one of our User Group meetings convinced me I should buy in… So yes, many dips which made me wonder, but, held on, and it’s outpaced my expectations many times over. It also made up for the nasty, at the time, losses I took, investing in my employer, Lucent… Some we win, some, not so much… Quite a ride…
I bought Apple and MSFT at the end of 2000 - Apple in my Roth and MSFT in my Trad IRA. 20 shares of each (Apple @18.50) - I’ve done well. Still, I don’t remember why I sold out of MSFT in 2011.