Apple has declined in recent days from $180 to $170, which is a support point and currently it is so oversold, it might hold for few days. But if we step back and see the double top, then Apple is in for more pain. If Apple breaks $170, it can get to $140. Right now, I have no bets in place, waiting for the $170 to resolve one way or another. If you are some one with a significant gains in Apple, you may want to think about hedging.
The last time Apple was down 4%+ and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were both up on the day was over 10 years ago on 1/28/14 and before than 6/12/08.
H/T https://twitter.com/bespokeinvest/status/1770905990038176187
I have bought Jan 25 $170 put and sold May $160 Put for a net price of $9.07. I am expecting some near-term weakness in Apple but it should find some support around 160. Generally buying a call has a much better payout than buying a put (after all puts have a floor, but calls “infinity and beyond”). In any case, I have so much technology, so this is a tiny position and most likely I will close this before Jan.
After today’s move, closed the long put position. It looks like $170 is resolving to the upside, bullish. Bought some shares and few covered calls.
This looked like nimble pivot, especially after the earnings. On hearing Berkshire sale of Apple shares, all my past doubts of Apple re-surfaced. I don’t like to second guess myself, but have learned the lesson not to second guess Buffett. Buffett sold out of Verizon, I thought I could manage the decline with options etc, but Verizon declined all the way to low 30’s. Luckily, Apple is not a big position and getting out is easy as there is very little cap gains. For now, watching.
Separately, Buffett’s rational for selling Apple, (whether true or not) started me to think about the capital gains if and when I sell some of my position. It is very sobering to realize you will be at least 10% poorer if you sell all your stocks.
1/3rd of Apple’s revenue are from Greater China. If you are worried about China (and find Chinese stocks un-investable), consider this, Apple’s China exposure is $1 T shock, this is no longer just stock market impact, but many retirement plans will take hit with this kind of exposure.
So you can assume either everyone is going to be rational, US and China will navigate their relationship and Apple will not be a collateral damage, or there is a known risk waiting to happen at unknown time.
In either case, I am going to sell my Apple position.
I sold around $189 and it moved up almost $3 since then. On its own the $3 move is not a big deal, but given across the board tech weakness, Apple strength is impressive. I guess Apple will rally or at least not decline until wwdc on June 10th. I should have factored that in my sell decision… Live and learn.
Traditionally, WWDC is just a developers conference and no product announcements are made. But the “AI” pressure on Apple is so great, they are going to announce some AI news here. At least there are enough stories floating about this. If the AI news is not inspiring or plain disappointment, the stock could sell off. OTOH, if Apple manages to shock the people…
Given its size Apple and NVDA are moving the market on their own.
Wow. The stock exploded. Given its market cap this kind of move should be called exploding.
I was already having concerns on this name like China risk, HW upgrade cycles are elongated, lastly Buffett sold some. After watching the WWDC, I was mixed and the stock price movement was not great. Nice confirmation bias.
Then, I read this stratechery post, I warmed up to Apple and wall street research reports are uniformly bullish, for ex: JPM estimates this AI going to drive 3 years of iPhone upgrade cycle. There is some speculation that this price move is fueled by the company buyback, i.e., they were buying back now… IDK…
So I thought I will get back into the stock. The stock then exploded and I missed, I sold put to see if I could get assigned, nope… Now, I have to wait.
I am pretty sure, the market will provide opportunity to get back in to this name. For now, sold few $165 Jan puts and wait…
I am glad to see Warren Buffett came around to my position
Actually I am following Buffett and converted all my BAC position into covered call, at $35. If they stock goes below that I will reassess. For now, I have so much banks, don’t mind reducing.