I don’t know how much revenue Square derives from its P2P payment service or Paypal from Venmo. I’ve never used them before myself.
PayPal does not make money via its P2P services on its core platform or Venmo. Its sole purpose is to get account holders to engage more with the platform.
Yes, that means until very recently Venmo did not make money: https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/11/14/venmo-me-paypal-ta…
This worried me enough to hold back from investing in PPAL (beyond the indirect exposure via my Internet ETF) and choosing to invest in Square instead.
Ant, Strelna recently asked about the threat Apple Pay Cash posed to PayPal on the Stock Advisor boards and this is how I answered him:
I would definitely not say it’s “impossible” for Apple Pay (or Android Pay, Google Wallet, Samsung Pay, etc.) to disrupt PayPal. Totally within realm of possibility. However, I do think it unlikely. Here’s why…
In PayPal’s second-quarter conference call, CEO Schulman said:
We are an open platform and a suite of services, both branded and unbranded, that’s operating system- and device- and technology-agnostic. And so … very importantly, we’re a neutral third-party platform. So we don’t compete with any of our merchants or partners. We are allies in advancing digital payments.
In an interview with Telegraph on this matter, Schulman discussed the specific possibility of Apple Pay disruption. He said:
We own the full value proposition, Apple can never do that because they don’t do the risk associated with it, they don’t do the onboarding, they can only provide what they hope is a good user interface. We try to provide that end to end value proposition and very importantly we do it across operating systems.
From http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2017/06/17/paypal-boss…
So lots of things going on here. First, As Shulman said, one of the most attractive features about using PayPal as a digital gateway to making payments online or via a mobile device is that it is not tied to a particular device, operating system, or bank. That makes it unique among its digital wallet competitors.
Want to use Apple’s Apple Pay? Better have an iPhone or iPad. Ditto for Samsung’s Samsung Pay. Want to use Zelle, a new P2P service jointly backed by big banks like JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo? Better have an account at a participating bank. We could keep going. Want to use Alphabet’s Android Pay or Google Wallet? Better have a Gmail account or phone that works on the Android operating system. It is little wonder, then, that the aforementioned big tech companies and banks have come to the table to make a deal with PayPal in recent months.
In the P2P payment space, this directly affects how useful the service is. For instance, if a dinner party wants to split a restaurant bill, every person paying would have to have an iPhone to use Apple Pay. With Zelle, everyone would need to be a member of a participating bank or credit union. Not so with PayPal (or Venmo). In other words, PayPal is completely agnostic about what phone its account holders use or where they bank and shop; a claim few of its rivals can make.
That’s why I think Apple Pay or other digital competitors are unlikely to make a huge impact on PayPal’s growth. Is it something we need to watch and monitor though? Absolutely. If PayPal’s account growth or user engagement slows down or decreases, its valuation at its current levels will definitely take a hit.
Would love to hear anyone else’s thoughts though. I’ve been wrong plenty of times before.
Matt
Long GOOGL, PYPL
MasterCard (MA), PayPal (PYPL), Skechers (SKX) and Square (SQ) Ticker Guide
See all my holdings at http://my.fool.com/profile/CMFCochrane/info.aspx