APT - Afterpay Results - H1/2020

All figures in AUD unless stated otherwise

Revenue - $212.2 M up 105% on pcp
Net transaction Margin - $102 M (or 48% of revenue) up 118% on pcp
Impairment expense - 1.0% down from 1.2% on pcp
Net transaction loss - 0.5% down 0.1 % on pcp
Operating loss - $31.5 M or -14% of revenue.
Operating expenses - $80.8M - 317% increase on pcp - Primarily due to a 500% increase in marketing spend ($32M), which is now around 15% of revenue.
Merchant income margin - 3.8% up 0.1% on pcp
operating cashflow - -$33.8 (-15% of revenue)

Revenue growth - regional breakdown

ANZ ($3.1B transactions)- 55% growth on PCP - 23% active customer growth, showing expanding revenue per customer as the platform matures. 98% customer retention for monthly users - this is despite being only able to use Afterpay when the accoutn is fully paid month to month.

US ($1.4B transactions)- 445% growth on PCP!. Customer net losses and revenue per customer is tracking the ANZ experience, demonstrating the model is translating to the US - so far. There are now more US customers than ANZ customers.

UK ($0.2B transactions) - operational for 6 months. At the end of December, $0.65B transaction run rate achieved.

Late fees, as a percentage of underlying sales continues to fall, down to 0.7% of sales. This is important, as APT needs to demonstrate it promotes responsible use.

22900 customers signed up PER DAY in November / December. Thar is more than 1 million customers in 2 months!
Expansion into Canada this year.

Customer outstanding balances are $211 compared to credit cards at $3380.

Current revenue run rate is $480 Million ($11 billion transactions)! However, APT only has sufficient funding capacity for $15 BN in transaction volume. I think APT will need more capital / funding to meet the opportunity.

Currently, existing US & UK merchants and pipeline merchants comprise a $30 BN transaction pipeline TAM - WITHOUT ANY FURTHER MERCHANTS ACQUISITION.

PEOPLE - Afterpay have recruited some executives to boost management capability -

GLOBAL CHIEF PRODUCT OFFICER
DAVID KATZ (EX FANATICS, GROUPON)

GLOBAL CHIEF MARKETING OFFICER
GEOFF SEELEY (EX AIRBNB)

ANZ SALES DIRECTOR
KATRINA KONSTAS (EX AMEX)

VP PRODUCT DESIGN
SCOTT POLCHLEB (EX WEWORK)

US HEAD OF FINANCE
LAURA NADLER (EX VISA)

Partnerships - VISA in the US, and Mastercard in ANZ.

Regulatory Developments:
Australian BNPL code of Practice - APT support code of practice, with it being resolved later this year.
Reserve Bank Issues Paper on surcharging - APT oppose surcharging, but this is a risk to the Australian business.
AUSTRAC considering auditors (positive) report - APT implementing recommendations. Low risk of adverse outcomes.

Targeting to exceed revenue run rate of $800 M by June 2022.
In store transactions is 25% of underlying sales in ANZ, and it is anticipated this will increase over time.
They have achieved their online target in the US of 5% of the millennial market, and are now turning their attention to bricks and mortar retail in the US, using their millenial customers to drive this channel.

Marketing spend - marketing is done in partnership with merchants, with increased spending anticipated with new US, UK, and Canadian merchants.

Presentation link: https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/24q3daze

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Sean - thanks for posting.

Overall I liked pretty much everything in the report in particular:

  1. Growth metrics across all markets in revenues, customers, transaction frequencies and merchants

  2. Effectively all but reaching a cash flow positive position

  3. Improvement in margins with overall margins improving and mature ANZ reaching profitability

  4. Key appointments made

  5. Declines in the % of late fees

In terms of the go-forwards news, I liked:

  1. A litte more clarity on partnerships with MC and Visa as well as timescale on eBay in Australia
  2. Funding facility with Goldman Sachs in US/ANZ
  3. Plans for in-store deployment of Afterpay in the US
  4. Confirmation of Canada as the next target market for this year (amounting to another market = to Australia)
  5. Service offering solution expansion of its platform for customers (beyond instalment financing and cash flow budgeting to include roll out of international payment transfers beyond A+NZ to include UK)

The only quibble I have is with the progress in the UK which is struggling to keep up with Klarna there and no mention of plans to go “in store” in the UK or resolve its ClearPay trade name vs the owners of Afterpay trade name in Europe. Right now there are no like for like YoY comparisons so this isn’t showing up in hard numbers yet.

In ideal world I would also like to see entry into Asia but I guess that probably isn’t the best time given the virus issues in this part of the world.

Ant

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