Arctic sea ice down 18% in 47 years, 2025 is lowest year yet

There is a 47-year record of measurements on the extent of sea ice cover in the arctic, “arctic sea ice extent” (ASIE).

Since full year 1979 through 2025, mean sea ice extent (average ASIE taken over all 12 months of each year) has declined a total of 18% over the 47-year period, or about 0.39% per year (46 yoy intervals)

Last year, 2025, was the lowest observed mean sea ice extent in the 47-year record.

In two other threads (at bottom), attention was given to 1 of 12 months (September) when the arctic summer ice reaches its minimum extent.

These threads tried to infer that the decline in ASIE entered a “pause” in September for several years, perhaps implying that the effects of global warming, at least in ASIE, had paused.

That kind of inference is flawed (as noted in discussion in the second thread), first and foremost because there are 12 months in the year and observations on 1 month say little about the overall changes in ASIE, which, of course, occur in all 12 months each year.

Here is the data averaged over all 12 months each year for 1979 to 2025.

Year Sea Ice Extent (million km²) YoY Change (%) Cumulative Change (%)
1979 12.32 N/A 0.00%
1980 12.33 +0.08% +0.08%
1981 12.13 -1.62% -1.54%
1982 12.44 +2.56% +0.97%
1983 12.34 -0.80% +0.16%
1984 12.11 -1.86% -1.70%
1985 11.93 -1.49% -3.17%
1986 12.01 +0.67% -2.52%
1989 11.99 -0.17% -2.68%
1990 11.71 -2.34% -4.95%
1991 11.78 +0.60% -4.38%
1992 12.11 +2.80% -1.70%
1993 11.93 -1.49% -3.17%
1994 12.02 +0.75% -2.44%
1995 11.44 -4.83% -7.14%
1996 11.84 +3.50% -3.90%
1997 11.68 -1.35% -5.19%
1998 11.76 +0.68% -4.55%
1999 11.70 -0.51% -5.03%
2000 11.51 -1.62% -6.57%
2001 11.60 +0.78% -5.84%
2002 11.36 -2.07% -7.79%
2003 11.40 +0.35% -7.47%
2004 11.24 -1.40% -8.77%
2005 10.91 -2.94% -11.44%
2006 10.77 -1.28% -12.58%
2007 10.47 -2.79% -15.02%
2008 10.79 +3.06% -12.42%
2009 10.74 -0.46% -12.82%
2010 10.72 -0.19% -12.99%
2011 10.51 -1.96% -14.69%
2012 10.41 -0.95% -15.50%
2013 10.90 +4.71% -11.53%
2014 10.81 -0.83% -12.26%
2015 10.58 -2.13% -14.12%
2016 10.16 -3.97% -17.53%
2017 10.39 +2.26% -15.67%
2018 10.32 -0.67% -16.23%
2019 10.23 -0.87% -16.96%
2020 10.17 -0.59% -17.45%
2021 10.29 +1.18% -16.48%
2022 10.34 +0.49% -16.07%
2023 10.21 -1.26% -17.13%
2024 10.26 +0.49% -16.72%
2025 10.11 -1.46% -17.94%

*years 1987, 1988 are missing data for some months and are not included

sea ice data

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The reason for looking at the September minimums is that the change has been greatest then, providing a better signal to noise ratio. (The September numbers also make for better clickbait.)

DB2

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Signal-to-noise ratio of what?

Why would 1 month have more signal than 12, 12x the sample size?

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The slope or rate of change in the data points (sea ice extent in this case).

Because the delta is greater. As you know, over the years there has been a larger change in September than in March.

DB2

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And what conclusions do you draw from the 1-month September data versus the 12-month average?

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The September minimum is also followed because it is an indicator of how close we are to an “ice free Arctic”. An “ice-free Arctic” refers to conditions where the Arctic Ocean has less than 1 million square kilometers of sea ice. This was being predicted to happen by 2012, 2020, etc. The soonest being predicted currently is 2027.

The Arctic Could Have Its First ‘Ice-Free’ Day by as Early as 2027
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/the-arctic-could-have-its-first-ice-free-day-by-as-early-as-2027-180985582/

DB2

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Same question as above:

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From the data above, the rate of change for all months is about half of that of September. The recent pause (the period where the slope is not significantly different from zero) is shorter at 11 years.

DB2

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The minimum sea ice extent get more press because it’s flashy and it has a larger climate impact than the annual average.

Ice extent affects how much sunlight is reflected back to space, the albedo. Dark open sea has low albedo, absorbs sunlight and heats the planet. Ice has high albedo, reflects sunlight, and cools the planet. In polar winter, the sun is low in the sky and nights are long. The albedo doesn’t matter much. In the summer, the sun is high, the days are long, and open ocean can absorb a lot of heat. Summer sea ice extent matters a lot.

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