The US high tariffs will keep cheap China EVs from the US market space. Japan has few EVs models on offer. Missed opportunity?
Nissan, Honda and Acura all have EVs. Toyota has moved slowly here on purpose (but probably mistakenly). Mazda had one but it was a flop (range was far too low, if memory serves), but I think they have new plans for an EREV (extended range EV, uses a small rotary engine to serve as a generator to extend an already good EV-only range).
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BYD has entered Japan market space.
https://electrek.co/2024/07/16/byd-breaks-toyota-dominated-japan-ev-sales-climb/
Can BYD compete with Toyota on its home turf? According to the latest sales data, BYD accounted for nearly 3% of Japanās EV market in the first half of 2024. And thatās after launching its first EV in the region just last year.
BYD launched its first EV, the Atto 3, in Japan in January 2023. A year and a half later, the Chinese automaker is already making a big statement as it cuts into Japanās hard-to-crack auto market.
data shows EV imports were up 17% and accounted for nearly 10% (10,785) of car imports in the first half of the year.
Following the Atto 3, BYD has launched other top-selling EVs, including its Dolphin and Seal models. BYD introduced the Seal EV in Japan last month, starting at Ā„5.28 million, or around $33,100.
BYD continues gaining ground in Japan with a wide range of affordable electric cars. The Seal is BYDās answer to the Tesla Model 3, while the Atto 3 is a low-cost electric SUV.
Will this opinion hold?
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For reasons unknown to me Toyota and Japan bet on hydrogen and fuel cells. My best guess is that it was before the use of lithium ion batteries. Lead-acid was a dead end, much too heavy and short lived.
The Captain
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Toyota has significant investment and leadership in hybrids. Why do they need EVs?
Why forsake the EV market?
Yes the hybrid demand is NOW better than the EV market demand.
It is possible that this situation will NOT remain stagnant. Methinks it is likely to change in the future. My crystal ball is fuzzy as to when that event will occur.
Toyota is doing very well. They are making vehicles that people want (good consistent quality) and they are earning a reasonable profit from those sales. Thereās no sign of this ending anytime soon.
If EVs really do take off someday and begin to dominate the vehicle marketplace, they will need EVs. And because they are a good company, and they know how to design/build cars, and they know how to maintain high quality, they will probably do okay in the EV market at well. We shall see.
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No question authorities think EVs are the future and if that is so, Toyota will need them to maintain share. But the idea that EVs will hit 50% share in 2030 begins to look doubtful. Will that change with many more charging stations? Better battery technologies?
Or will voters continue to resist EVs as long as they can? Will govt get the message one day? Maybe another technology will be more practical.
Highly doubtful. Because any other new tech would require a large new infrastructure for refueling. There is so much momentum behind EVs and the EV charging infrastructure that there really isnāt a reason to think that taxpayers would/should help another technology. And that is who would have to pay for it since there has only ever been one car company that pushed and spent significantly on refueling infrastructure.
Unless of course your magical new tech is cheaper to buy the cars and cheaper to refueling them and cheaper to install the infrastructure. Please, let us in on this secret.
Mike
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EV cost curve is compelling and driving characteristics are superior.
This is a Blockbuster vs Netflix debate.
I see resistance along two key lines of thought:
- I have a inbred love of gasoline
- I have a fear of not being able to charge on the long road trips I rarely take.
Most of the people I know who hate EVās have never driven one. The second set of people have range anxiety. And the majority of EV owners I know get over that pretty quick once they start driving one. Iām very close to getting over that hurdle myself, though I might try a quick weekend road trip just to prove it to myself one day. A friend with a Mach-E has made several TX-NY trips already, all without SuperCharger access even.
Personally I see no viable path other than the BEV (or possibly an EREV, which was already tried in the Bolt, so Iām skeptical of that). People love to talk about āinfrastructureā and āgridā but those arguments are all based on fear more than anything else. Charging is mostly done at night when the grid load is low, meaning you donāt need much more grid capacity to start with. Now, road trip charging could be improved still (my favorite route to the in-laws would be difficult). As could destination charging. I note, however, that even in backwards Wichita Falls, TX there are 5 hotels with L2 chargers and 2 AirBNBs that offer it. (Though I have no idea the amperage they can deliver). Itās better than nothing but it does need to get better.
People seem to forget that Teslaās success depended greatly on the SuperCharger network they started building early on. The first transcontinental Tesla EV trip was big news! Yes we can!
EVs took advantage of two existing infrastructures, lithium ion batteries and the electric grid.
The Captain
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I think itās also due to #3 and #4:
- I do not have access to an easy, manageable home charging option.
- I do not want to spend the extra money for the BEV version of the class of automobile I want/need.
If you donāt have access to home charging, owning a BEV is going to be more daunting. Yes, thereās a lot of folks that live in a single-family home with a garage; but also a lot who donāt.
And BEVās are still fairly expensive relative to their ICE brethren within the same vehicle class. The BEV version of the Hyundai Kona starts at about $8K (30%) higher than the starting price of the ICE version. The MSRP of the Tesla Model 3 is about $14K more expensive than the average midsize sedan, or $44K v. $30K (the Tesla is a vastly better car than the average midsize sedan, but not everyone can spend more money for a better car).
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Or no need for refueling ever. For example a micro nuclear reactor, that at purchase comes with enough fuel installed to last 500,000 miles. When the vehicle is junked, the power plant is removed and either reused elsewhere or disposed of properly. Obviously science fiction for now, but so were small handheld communicators only 50 years ago.
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I do know a few people who have EVs or hybrids and seem to like them. The main line of resistance is no one wants to be first. They do not want to be the guinea pigs who learn they wonāt run in winter or chargers are unavailable or in poor repair.
Let someone else solve all these problems. Then maybe I will get one. Especially if the economics show clear advantage. Until then its ICEs for most people I know. The tractor people laugh at the suggestion of electrics. And pickup trucks go mostly to early adopters. Not the core of the market.
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And, if you remember, there is a significant number of EV owners who are interested in going back to ICE vehicles.
DB2
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The Chevy Bolt is a BEV.
Chevy have stopped making it - older battery tech, not economic - but have said they will produce a new Bolt. Hope so, ācos we love ours and will need a replacement eventually.
We wouldnāt have it as our only car, though.
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You are right. I meant Volt.
I doubt auto manufacturers have any interest in making a vehicle that will last that long!
They now use plastic for intake manifolds & valve covers. & other parts of an engine. The durability of engines are going backwards.
I wonder if that will remain to be true once solid state batteries are manufactured at similar pricing to a lithium battery. Those batteries have a much longer range and can be charged much faster than lithium batteries.