* 7/11 7/18 7/25 8/1/22
S&P 500 Index 3899.38 3863.16 3961.63 4130.29
Trailing 12 month PE 19.36 19.15 19.98 20.81
Trail Earnings yield 5.17% 5.22% 5.01% 4.81%
Forward 12 month PE 17.48 17.26 18.66 19.42
Fwd Earnings Yield 5.72% 5.79% 5.36% 5.15%
90 day tbill yield 1.98 2.37 2.49 2.41
10 year tbond yield 3.09% 2.93% 2.77% 2.67%
Arezi Ratio 0.38 0.45 0.50 0.50
Fed Ratio 0.54 0.51 0.52 0.52
The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.
The “Fed Ratio” is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than “fair value”
by 29%.
The ‘S=120-50*Arezi Ratio’ formula indicates an allocation of 95%
stocks, 5% cash this week.
Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is below its 200DMA. - Bearish
We are in the May-Oct part of the year. - Bearish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is normal. - Bullish
A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 65%.
An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 85%.
Elan