Argentina's economic death spiral

If I were an Argentinian I would be praying that a young tango rythmically inclined reincarnated Alexander Hamilton shows up in Milei’s office and takes over economic strategizing, tactics, and schmoozing. With Trump’s shocking aid bundle of dollars (what/who/why motivated that?) there could be a real opportunity to escape Argentina’s miserable cycle of misery.

Naah, not until the gauchos sing Ave Maria in four part harmony while dancing to Watzing Matilda….

Things have improved greatly since Milei was elected in November 2023. ARGT, mentioned above, has more than doubled. Inflation has been cut by a factor of five. The poverty rate is at a seven-year low. There has been a significant increase in apartment rentals since rent control was repealed.

There has certainly been progress made. What would your terpsichorean Hamilton push for?

DB2

My Terpsichore would surpass my feeble imagination, but I imagine something like a carefully delivered package of actions to

  1. BeMuse, baffle, charm, and then carefully select from amongst the most wealthy and historically rapacious families for allies, destroying the others unless they coughed up large scale repayments of past lootings: basically checkmate and then liquidate most of the historically entrenched but non-productive rich (start with descendants of the military brass of the Peron era), keeping as close (the better to keep watch on) allies those with willingness to use their knowledge of the capital flows of cyclic Argentinian corruption to help their country escape its century old catastrophes.
  2. Search out and invest heavily so as to radically accelerate advancement of middle class engaged on paths of economic development. Hell if I know how to do that in our current era beyond investing in higher quality education, efficient public health, and modernized transports/communications infrastructure. Get the middle class fully on board so as to maximize chance of winning next election cycle.
  3. Focus on selling Argentina and Argentinian products to the world: tourism!!!, beef and grains, high quality for money ex-pat retirement villages…
  4. ….
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I rarely repost Zeihan here, but he is quite good on Argentina’s current repeat of the “Perils of Pauline”, for any who wish to know more about that sad place, how the USA chose to put billions at risk for it, and the likely outcome.

Amusing because Zeihan is huffing and puffing as he rants.

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Zeihan missed. He failed to consider China debt trap/s.

Here’s a different bias.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/10/24/argentina-deserves-its-bailout-00620337

{ " Bessent, who has praised Milei’s “governing philosophy,” insists that the package isn’t a bailout but an “economic Monroe Doctrine,” a reference to the 19th century foreign policy statement asserting U.S. primacy in the Western hemisphere. Washington has an interest in seeing Milei succeed not only because it will stabilize Argentina, but also because his success will serve as a “beacon” to other countries on the continent. “We do not want another failed or China-led state in Latin America,” Bessent said. "}

China uses the “debt trap” loan system to exert it’s control and influence.
Half the Latin American countries are in China’s clutches.

South America:
Key Countries (Grok):
Venezuela: The largest debtor at approximately $60 billion

Ecuador: Owes about $18.2 billion over 24 loans,

Argentina: Around $17 billion in 13 loans,

Suriname: Debts of roughly $1 billion have blocked IMF bailouts,

Bolivia: Approximately $3.2 billion across 9 loans,

Other South American nations like Brazil ($3-3.4 billion) and Peru have notable loans but are generally seen as less vulnerable due to larger economies and diversified financing.

Overall, China’s lending to the region totals ~$136 billion (2005-2022), with 80% of its global portfolio now in distress-hit borrowers, shifting Beijing toward a collector role.

A YT (no link) from over the weekend says:
Argentina has large Lithium reserves, as well as other minerals n metals.

China needs those reserves, if it’s gonna expand it’s global dominance.
The US currency swap puts pressure on China.

::~~~
Central America, too.

Key Countries (Grok).
El Salvador: Approximately $700 million

Honduras: Around $335 million committed pre-2023.

Nicaragua: Estimated $1-2 billion

Panama: Over $1 billion in loans and projects, .

Costa Rica: About $1.1 billion since 2007,

:thinking: $ or ¥ :thinking:
hmmm which do I prefer?
:thinking::thinking::thinking:
ralph

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