Zeihan missed. He failed to consider China debt trap/s.
Here’s a different bias.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/10/24/argentina-deserves-its-bailout-00620337
{ " Bessent, who has praised Milei’s “governing philosophy,” insists that the package isn’t a bailout but an “economic Monroe Doctrine,” a reference to the 19th century foreign policy statement asserting U.S. primacy in the Western hemisphere. Washington has an interest in seeing Milei succeed not only because it will stabilize Argentina, but also because his success will serve as a “beacon” to other countries on the continent. “We do not want another failed or China-led state in Latin America,” Bessent said. "}
China uses the “debt trap” loan system to exert it’s control and influence.
Half the Latin American countries are in China’s clutches.
South America:
Key Countries (Grok):
Venezuela: The largest debtor at approximately $60 billion
Ecuador: Owes about $18.2 billion over 24 loans,
Argentina: Around $17 billion in 13 loans,
Suriname: Debts of roughly $1 billion have blocked IMF bailouts,
Bolivia: Approximately $3.2 billion across 9 loans,
Other South American nations like Brazil ($3-3.4 billion) and Peru have notable loans but are generally seen as less vulnerable due to larger economies and diversified financing.
Overall, China’s lending to the region totals ~$136 billion (2005-2022), with 80% of its global portfolio now in distress-hit borrowers, shifting Beijing toward a collector role.
A YT (no link) from over the weekend says:
Argentina has large Lithium reserves, as well as other minerals n metals.
China needs those reserves, if it’s gonna expand it’s global dominance.
The US currency swap puts pressure on China.
::~~~
Central America, too.
Key Countries (Grok).
El Salvador: Approximately $700 million
Honduras: Around $335 million committed pre-2023.
Nicaragua: Estimated $1-2 billion
Panama: Over $1 billion in loans and projects, .
Costa Rica: About $1.1 billion since 2007,
$ or ¥ 
hmmm which do I prefer?



ralph