Argentina emerged from a severe recession in the third quarter, marking a milestone for libertarian president Javier Milei’s bid to end the country’s long-running economic crisis.
GDP expanded 3.9% from July to September in seasonal-adjusted terms compared with the previous quarter, marking Argentina’s first quarter of growth since it entered recession in late 2023, the country’s statistics agency said on Monday.
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The fiscal balance will end the year in equilibrium after 15 years of deficit. The aggressive expenditure adjustment will enable a primary fiscal surplus of 1.7% of GDP, despite the contraction in revenues caused by declining economic activity. In 2025, we expect the Treasury to renew its commitment with the goal of zero fiscal deficit.
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Argentina has a long horrible history of alternating between corrupt idiotic pseudo-christian-socialist, and corrupt pseudo-free market (often military dictatorial) polities. The thread of continuity throughout is stunning corruption and malfeasance throughout the process except for the radical reform phase (where we are now). The smart older families know when to move their wealth between dollars, land, buildings, corporate investments, and bribes. Right now is the end of the dollars/gold phase and the beginning of the land real estate phase. Bribes are always in play.
We are now entering the “interesting time” in Argentina’s repetitive political economical evolutions. I am impressed by Milei’s term so far, but this phase usually leads to something far more unpleasant. I actually have some hope that he will break the cycle, at least somewhat.
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(I was briefed on all this long ago by a stunningly smart young friend from Argentina who had been sent north to the USA as a child, after his father was murdered by the military junta in 1980, as dad refused to surrender the (huge) family ranchlands to an avaricious general.)