"Arty deal" with EU

That’s hilarious and obviously for the pleasure of Donald’s little ears. In 2024, total EU imports of energy from the US were about $64B. Not only is the EU not going to buy $250b of energy from the US a year, but it is doubtful that the US can even supply that much energy to the EU.

As for the claim about replacing Russian fuel, last year the EU imported about 22b euros of Russian fossil fuels. Math is a wonderful thing.

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Right, we are already supplying the majority of fuel to the EU and they are buying less coal from us because they are not using it. They also want to sell more fuel to China. It isn’t like it is unlimited. Also rig count is down because the price is down.

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Yeah, I saw that. Growing up as an avid golfer, I was always taught that you can’t trust anyone who cheats at golf. I feel bad for the caddie, selling his soul like that and all.

Speaking of trust, is it weird that none of this year’s trade deals are officially posted?

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Surely any employee would realize that abandoning independent thought and ethics is a condition of employment. I had to say and do things almost as scummy at most of the places I worked. One coworker of mine drew the line at his previous employer at paying a hooker for a client. He, of course, lost his job.

Steve

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I’ve left jobs because I wouldn’t compromise my morals. Never got fired because of it. Everybody has choices.

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Yup. One of the former RS store managers went to work at a car dealership. Quit less than a year later, said he was “tired of lying for a living”. Another guy went to selling insurance. He said he “never made so much money, and never had so much trouble sleeping”. Think, for a moment, about the “values” of the “JCs” that put people in those jobs.

Steve

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Of course, we need to wonder if the Japanese and Europeans think this is really over? Based on my experiences with the sort that his nibs is, he will be back in a year or two, for more, just like he tossed the USMCA he signed off on, and demanded more.

Steve

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Well, if any “deal” ceremonially signed with the US is no longer worth more than the piece of paper it was printed on, that goes for both sides…

(who the heck needs international law anyway)

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Of course not. Everyone knows Trump cannot keep his word and stick to a deal.

Another view of the deal:
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/07/blind-ideological-zealotry-let-eu-agree-to-this-trump-deal.html#more
The is a very, very bad deal for Europe. It again demonstrates the incompetence of EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

*As I have pointed out previously there was and is no imbalance in trade between the U.S. and Europe. There was no need for tariffs or for agreeing to a deal. As the Washington Post concedes (archived):
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https://archive.ph/V0LQU#selection-279.0-283.157
the U.S. runs a sizable surplus of its own in trade in services like financial advice, tourism and education, bringing the total trade relationship much closer to balance. *Considering the total $1.8 trillion in goods and services that flow between the U.S. and E.U., the U.S. trade deficit is less than $100 billion, which most economists say is inconsequential.
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The EU commission was given the tools to prevent the current outcome. That is why yesterday Martin Sandbu of the FT argued (archived) that there was no need to concede:

https://archive.ph/2DqGW#selection-1551.0-1555.54

There was no reason for the EU to accept any deal.

That it did so is a result of the miserable negotiation tactics (archived) van der Leyen has pursued. She has become a cause and symbol of Europe’s decay.
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https://archive.ph/UWRlU#selection-1891.0-1897.92
How the EU succumbed to Trump’s tariff steamroller
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Ursula von der Leyen – a symbol of Europe’s decay.

Her rise has nothing to do with merit and everything to do with family ties and elite networks. Her tenure as Germany’s Defence Minister was an international embarrassment: military readiness collapsed, procurement scandals exploded, and billions were wasted on overpriced consulting contracts. In any functioning country, that would end a political career. In Brussels, it earns you a promotion.

As President of the European Commission, von der Leyen has no strategic mind and no geopolitical instinct. Under her, the EU has become a vassal institution: obedient, self-censoring, and addicted to external approval. She has no sense of what European sovereignty means, and even less interest in building it.

She governs like a monarch—bypassing democratic processes, punishing dissenting member states, and using “rule of law” rhetoric as a political weapon. She doesn’t serve Europe. She manages its decline.

Plastic, fluent, and empty—she’s everything the EU has become. A facade of unity masking paralysis. A commission president who says everything, means nothing, and delivers little beyond bureaucracy and ideological enforcement.

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So Ursula is more of a empty suit than the Orange in Chief?

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The US has a trade surplus with Brazil, but his nibs imposed a 50% tariff anyway.

As offered before, this is all about raising money with tariffs, mostly off of the Proles, to cover the cost of more handouts to the “JCs”. Study your history. The income tax was passed, in conjunction with a cut in tariffs, due to a sense that tariffs were born, disproportionally, by the Proles, so moving to an income tax, for some revenue, would be more fair. As with everything else, the current regime wants to turn back the clock.

My big beef was the precipitate way the tariffs were imposed. What he is probably moving to, now, is a graduated tariff schedle, without saying it outloud. He jumps the rate with the EU and Japan to 15% this year. The manufacturers who are smart, will take advantage of this respite to move more production to the US. Because, in a couple years, the rate will be jumped up, again. Those who did not use the respite to move production will be even deeper in the kimchee.

Steve

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Possibly not all components of the „deal“ were published…

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Ah, the promotion to Brussels was the doing of Merkel and Macron, the French upside in the deal being Lagarde, who was in a similar predicament in her home country, rochading to become boss off the ECB.

European Politics at its best…

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Mein Gott! EU politics are as sleazy as the USA variety.

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I’m not so sure that many manufacturers will do so. The sector wide tariffs are a substantial burden to any U.S. manufacturer; you’d also need to have some certainty in the current process. Only a fool would pretend to have such confidence. I suspect that it is more likely that manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers will slowly, but steadily, raise prices and the consumer will bear them. The smart ones won’t do it all at once and won’t admit the reason, but the effect will be the same.

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More commentary on the trade deal.

The political reaction in Europe has been scathing. French Minister Benjamin Haddad labelled the agreement “unbalanced”, noting that while French spirits secured a narrow exemption, the overall terms were deeply unfavourable.

From William Murphy:

This agreement, like all neoliberal trade pacts before it, isn’t designed to benefit workers, stabilize economies, or address existential crises like climate collapse. It is, rather, the latest stage in a forty-year project to rewrite the rules of global commerce in service of capital’s insatiable hunger for deregulation, privatization, and labor suppression.

At its core, the deal operates on a simple, brutal logic: what corporations call “opening markets” translates to dismantling barriers to exploitation.

The language of these deals always obscures their true function. “Regulatory alignment” sounds technocratic, but in practice, it means harmonizing standards downward—sacrificing food safety, environmental protections, and workers’ rights on the altar of “competitiveness.” When the White House boasts of “opening markets,” what they’re really celebrating is the erosion of the last remaining barriers that slow capital’s race to the bottom. EU consumers will soon find chlorinated chicken on their supermarket shelves, while U.S. workers face renewed pressure to accept lower wages to “compete” with European precarity. The winners aren’t nations, but shareholders—the same financial elites who have spent generations pitting workers against each other across borders.

Jack Welch:“Shareholder Value” Uber Alles.

But „ L’art de l’accord“ sounds so much more sophisticated.

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However, there is a plus for the EU, access. As this Axios article points out, the trade deal proves that access to the US markets matters above all else.

Like realpolitik, there is realwirtschaft.

Trump trade deals prove access to the U.S. still matters above all else
https://www.axios.com/2025/07/28/trump-tariffs-trade-eu-japan

DB2

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Depends on how sharp the “JCs” are. If they realize they are dealing with an extortionist who will, repeatedly, raise the price of access to the US, they will move production to the US, to maintain access. Some/many/most “JCs” will now sit back and say “gee, 15% isn’t that bad. We charge so much above the cost of production for our status symbols now, what’s another 15%? Let’s carry on with our golf game”. Then, a couple years from now, when that 15% becomes 20 or 25%, the same “JCs” will say “it’s only another 10%. So what? Race you to the next tee.” Some day, people won’t pay the price, and they’ll stop their golf game long enough to cry for their domestic media and pols, about how they were blindsided, and they need a bailout. Meanwhile, his nibs had raked in hundreds of Billions in tariffs, and funded another juicy tax cut for himself and his cronies.

Steve

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more opinions:

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