Asana - My Take

Asana reported an excellent quarter. I’ll be increasing my position over the near term.

In general, here is the thesis. Revenue growth is accelerating and there are good reasons to believe that will continue. Customer growth was great in both the top of funnel and within enterprise. Gross margins are best in class rivaled by very few. Albeit in a competitive field, the solutions Asana offers are extremely well reviewed and look to be providing great value to their customers with an enormous runway. The pace of innovation is considerably picking up steam. Tech partners are growing fast as well as channel partners. International expansion is taking place as the platform expands to new languages. The valuation today is downright cheap for their growth rate.

Revenue


           Q1      Q2    Q3     Q4
FY ‘20    28.0   33.1   38.1   43.5
FY ‘21    47.7   52.0   58.9   68.4
FY ‘22    76.7   89.7e

QoQ Growth


           Q1     Q2    Q3    Q4
FY ‘20           18%    15%   14%
FY ‘21     10%    9%    13%    16%
FY ‘22     12%    17%e

YoY Growth


          Q1    Q2     Q3     Q4
FY ‘21   70%    57%    55%    57%
FY ‘22   61%    73%e

For the estimate next quarter, I’m assuming the same beat on a percentage basis of about 8%. That has been steady over the past four quarters. It seems like a good assumption. Another very bullish point is that the guidance for the next quarter increased significantly on a sequential basis. Previous guidance suggested 3% to 4% sequential growth. Next quarter suggests over 8% which will be beaten handily as we know.

Full year guidance was increased over 8% to $340M

Gross margins increased to 89.8% from 87.1% YoY

The company offers total NRR and NRR based on cohorts:
Total NRR - Over 115%

$5K NRR - 123%
$50k NRR - Over 140%

Revenues from the >$5k cohort grew 82% and now make up 64% of total sales versus 56% last year. From this, we can calculate growth of the less than $5k cohort of 7.9%. Revenues from the larger cohort will continue to dominate and grow very fast.

Some may scoff at Asana’s spending habits that at first glance have been more closely aligned with a drunken sailor than a competent business operator. The first glance doesn’t always tell the full picture.

Asana’s solution is sticky. It can be used throughout an entire organization and once it becomes embedded, there is little chance it will become unseated. The payback period on investment is top quality. It currently stands around 16 to 17 months which is quite good. The company should be spending all it can right now to hire sales professionals to drive growth and embed themselves in the operating flow of a company.

Revenues from the >$5k cohort grew 82% and now make up 64% of total sales versus 56% last year. From this, we can calculate growth of the less than $5k cohort of 7.9%. Revenues from the larger cohort will continue to dominate and grow very fast.

Growth in customers for the quarter was great. The top of funnel grew by 7,000 to over 100,000 paying customers - a nice acceleration from last quarter’s 4,000. More importantly, their largest cohort of over $50k customers grew 92%!
Customers greater than $5k grew at 53%.

Given the NRR of the larger cohorts along with the growth in those cohorts, this points to a very bullish narrative over the coming quarters and well into the future.

Asana has introduced their offering in 4 new languages recently with 3 more planned later this year. New products are being announced in the coming days along with new offerings anticipated in both Q3 and Q4. Their spending in R&D coupled with a short payback period on S&M spend portend good things to come.

Overall, I can’t say enough about the quarter. It is exactly what I had expected/hoped for with my initial investment dollars and warrants a larger position in my portfolio. It currently stands around 4% and I plan on increasing that significantly.

I’d be interested in questions and comments from others.

A.J.

48 Likes

Hi A.J.,

I completely agree with your bullish view of Asana. Bert had a very positive writeup on the company back on March 29 here: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4416570-best-tech-stocks-bu…

I posted a message here on April 21, saying that I couldn’t believe that a SaaS company growing at 57% YoY with 87%+ gross margins could be purchased for 14x NTM revenues. So I bought a good-size position at $28, as I wrote in this post:

https://discussion.fool.com/would-like-to-learn-what-others-thin…

Investors clearly liked the earnings report, with the stock popping almost 7% on Friday, to over $39.

We’ve been using Asana at our company to keep track of our tasks, and assign tasks to each other. One cool feature I like is that you can make a task you’re working on public. So if I’m looking for a collaborator for a task I’m working on, or if I can help someone working on a similar task, I can find them quickly with Asana. Foe example, I was making slides for a presentation for a conference coming up, and I found someone else making a presentation on a similar topic, so we stated working together. That’s been a game changer for me.

-Ron
Long ASAN

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Hi Ron,

I posted a message here on April 21, saying that I couldn’t believe that a SaaS company growing at 57% YoY with 87%+ gross margins could be purchased for 14x NTM revenues. So I bought a good-size position at $28, as I wrote in this post:

The great thing for anyone looking at the company today is the valuation still sits at about the same spot even though the stock price is now around $40 with revenue growth accelerating. I can see them coming out of the year with 65% growth (TTM). I’d imagine the valuation is far below the average for that type of growth.

Asana still has a lot to prove and the market is competitive. Things are definitely on the right track. We wanted to see the high S&M spend begin paying off and that is exactly what is happening.

Also, thanks for the personal anecdote on their product and am glad to hear it is useful for you. I really like the fact that it can be used from the CEO down throughout the org. It seems their platform can provide meaningful improvements in productivity. If that is true, we shall continue to see it in the numbers.

Take care,
A.J.

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I’m concerned about competition and the number of software vendors in Asana’s space. Market differentiation stuff.

  • Atlassian: JIRA (Cloud and on premise), Confluence, Trello task/team list management (fully integrated with JIRA)
  • MS: Teams: tasks, sharing, communication updates, tied directly to channels
  • Rally
  • Smartsheets (SMAR)

Seems there’s new workflow / team project management / task management / Kanban boards tools popping up every couple of months.

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There is also monday.com (MNDY) an Israel based competitor to ASAN that is expected to IPO shortly.
Comparison here https://technologyadvice.com/blog/information-technology/asa…

Thanks,
Praviner

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The competition is what gives me pause. I have used Jira and Teams for many years so it is hard for me to see the Asana competitive moat or edge. But I have not used Asana and certainly the companies performance catches my eye.

-zane

Different segments of the market or different focus…

Jira has been more focused on engineering organizations… grew from there to cover many aspects but mostly still around operations…

Teams is more of communication, collaboration SW… not so much of project management SW

Smartsheet is also focused on operations…

Whereas Asana has focus on marketing, general management…

I would think Asana and Smartsheet are most comparable… but still different focus / strength areas…

yeah… at some point they will overlap more closely… but for now Asana is really growing well.

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Different segments of the market or different focus…

Thanks, Nilvest.

It seems like the competitors that most resemble Asana are smaller companies like Wrike, Monday and several other private companies. Smartsheets and Trello likely overlap into what Asana does as well. I agree that Jira, Teams and Slack don’t really overlap into Asana’s category much.

There’s no way we can be sure Asana will come out on top. However, I like the near term set up. They are executing well on the R&D front developing new products and integrating new languages. They are looking to grab as much land as possible and are unlikely to be unseated when organizations get used to using their offering.

While it is good to ponder about potential competitors, the numbers will tell us how they are doing and the numbers are looking very positive. That is just how I see it at this time.

A.J.

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Just to add to praviner’s earlier post, according to this Techcrunch article monday.com (MNDY) are due to IPO on Thursday having priced their shares in the most recent filing at just over $6B (where the price ends up is entirely another matter): https://techcrunch.com/2021/06/08/as-monday-com-targets-6b-i…

Whilst there are a massive range of competitors in the space, it seems to me that Asana and Monday are the ‘pure-play’ project management companies here, where this is the sole focus rather than additional optionality. It’s striking looking through Jamin Ball’s S1 breakdown of Monday (https://cloudedjudgement.substack.com/p/mondaycom-benchmarki…) how similar the financials are for both businesses. Monday is coming to market with lower ltm revenue than Asana at $188M but is growing rather more quickly, at 95% YoY. Both are spending vast amounts on snatching up customers in what seems to be a nascent market.

I view this similarly to the Cloudflare and Fastly situation pre-2020 where it was unclear which business would be able to grab the largest market share (though it’s probably a stretch to suggest project management software offers the same opportunity in terms of TAM).

ATCB (5% Asana position)

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thanks ATCB

On your point in comparison, ASAN and MNDY products are lot more sticky than NET / FSLY. These are more akin to ERP type sticky-ness where once you choose a platform, you get stuck with it for a long long time.
Thats why I believe the risk of these guys competing and killing their exiting business down by price reduction race is low…

Major issue in my mind is which one or two (if any) of them will see truely meaningful scale… i.e. growing to $1B size revenue while still sustaining >30% top line growth… that winner is hard to pick… I thought SMAR was getting to good scale but their revenue growth is hanging <40% already just with revenue base of <$400M… And its too early to say for ASAN or MNDY…

May be this entire category will remain low growth or stay too fragmented… for now ASAN and MNDY growth looks good but the need to spend insane amount on S&M says their scalability will remain questionable.

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Overall, I can’t say enough about the quarter. It is exactly what I had expected/hoped for with my initial investment dollars and warrants a larger position in my portfolio. It currently stands around 4% and I plan on increasing that significantly.

The CEO seems to agree with you and just increased his position.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3704852-asana-stock-gains-5-as…

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