New year, new predictions.
Prediction 1
Carried over from last year:
Prediction 2
New for 2026:
“By December 31, 2026, Tesla will not have a scaling Robotaxi business in the US:
- at least 100 autonomous/unsupervised Robotaxis
- in at least each of 3 different US cities (100+ per city), in at least 3 US states
- each with operational area of at least 50 square miles (about 7x7 miles)”
Prediction 3
New for 2026:
“By December 31, 2026, Tesla will not have a minimal autonomous vehicle business for retail customers in the US:
- at least 1000 consumer-owned truly autonomous/unsupervised vehicles in a single US city
- each with operational area of at least 50 square miles (about 7x7 miles)
- must be available for purchase by the general public
- Tesla must assume liability for all AI driving”
Prediction 4a,b,c
Carried over from last year:
Fine Print
- must operate on 95% or more of all roads in a city (city streets, interstate, etc)
- must be technology internally developed (not obtained mainly by acquisition such as acquire Waymo or a Chinese AV company, etc)
- taxi must be available to the general public and collect fares
- taxi must operate at least 18 hours per day, 7 days per week
- each taxi must drive at least 30 miles per day on average