AYX down 10%

Can’t find any news, and volume per MS is only 50% of average. Our other favorite stocks are getting hit pretty hard as well.

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The same rotation out of SaaS holdings that has been happening over the past few days has resumed this week. Our favorite names are ‘on sale’ as nothing much has changed and the earnings reports thus far have been as strong as expected. Volatility is to be expected with highly valued stocks

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The software sector, especially the SaaS names have been beaten down harshly recently, with few exceptions, while the other sectors have been slowly gaining. It appears that money is flowing out of the software sector into the other sectors. This may prove itself to be a temporal shift, not a trend. If so, our stocks should recover soon. The next few days are crucial and I will closely monitor the situation.

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Why are the next few days critical? Not sure i understand their significance.

Thanks
Gordon

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I’m hoping this is not a trend. I found y’all in April and missed the big run-up from January to March, so I’m basically back to where I started the year.

If it is a trend, the big Q is where do we go from here? AI seems to be the strongest possibility, but a number of our stocks cross over that line. It’s a tough call…and tough to watch my port sag. I’m sure most of you are feeling the same pain.

It’s fascinating how all of them are getting taken down at the same time by about the same amounts. I suspect a hedgie “rotation” / “derisking” decision and cash-raising, at the end of many hedgies’ fiscal year.

If you believe in these companies’ futures and story, might suggest raising some cash but waiting out this storm before buying. Difficult to pick a bottom. All depends on your time of life and risk appetite.

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I suspect a hedgie “rotation” / “derisking” decision and cash-raising, at the end of many hedgies’ fiscal year

It’s definitely the former, but I don’t know any hedge funds with an Aug 31/Sept 9 fiscal year. Usually that kind of selling happens in late October.

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I don’t profess to understand the psychology, I clearly don’t. I’m seeing gains in the issues that have been struggling for months, especially tech hardware issues, while also seeing big declines in the SaaS darlings. That seems like a rotation of sorts I guess.

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Well I have to say that today my portfolio got hit harder than it has been with any tweet coming from the White House in the last two years. Ouch to say the least!

But okay, I don’t see any specific news why our well-beloved SaaS stocks are plummeting today so definitely no reason to sell. Maybe it’s a sector rotation, shake out of weak hands, who knows. All I know is that pretty much all our companies had very strong earnings and that the investment thesis for these stocks is still valid.

Good luck to you all! Sit tight and ride out the storm.

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I think “WeWork” broke the camel’s back. WeWork IPO is outrageous. I mean anything you can think of accusing a silicon valley tech company, you can find that at WeWork. It is not even a tech company, it is a real-estate leverage play and the valuation people were attaching to it is nonsensical.

I guess it made people to look at the entire tech/SaaS and realized many companies are selling at 25x, 30x sales and not making any money, so they are going to take some off the table.

Don’t rush in to buy. Step aside and wait to see where the dust settles. I could be wrong, the odds of stocks making a V bounce vs consolidating and forming a base to move up is higher. Remember, escalator down, stair-case up.

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I am guessing this is part of what’s spooking tech investors:

https://beta.washingtonpost.com/technology/2019/09/09/states…

At the end of last week there were 2 state attorney generals (Texas and NY) standing behind the Google probe. Today, there are 48…

I can totally see how people would interpret this as a major source of disruption to the tech sector as a whole. And if that drives a decision to take some tech money off the table, it’s quite reasonable that the first place they’d look is be the portion of that sector that has run up the greatest profits thus far - the SaaS crowd.

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I don’t see an antitrust investigation against Google having anything to do with most of the SaaS stocks that are discussed here. Also not to mention that Google and FB (both under the spotlight) were flat today.

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I think it likely has more to do with this:

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/why-many-cloud-computing-…

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Our stocks, being mostly lower market caps regularly move 3-4% on a gnat’s fart.

It is not the first time to see real movement like this. It doesn’t take much to move it into overdone mode. Works the same way going up.

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It -is- strange what is happening, particularly with respect to GOOG and FB themselves not moving much. I agree with others who posted earlier that this looks like some very large player with a major position in the names we like deciding to cash in their chips, and causing a little bit of panic. I am just trying to figure out what spooked that player.

To elaborate a little about the broader effects of the Google probe, though - arguably, the effect MIGHT end up being VERY significant.

If you notice, the probe that was announced has a very particular focus - advertising. That might seem isolated and unrelated to anything else, at first. That is, until you consider the well-publicized and well-documented fact that the single biggest contributing factor to the way that the internet “looks” today is the “victory” of the advertising-based content model over the “pay-for-content” business model in the mid to late 1990’s. Here is one article on the subject, there are many others:

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2014/08/adver…

If you buy this line of reasoning (which I do), what we are looking at in the news today might be considered an assault on the foundation of the modern internet itself. If this process ends up (intentionally or unintentionally!) crippling the ad-supported model of the internet, the internet will be forced to re-invent itself in a significant way. Which means major turbulence for any company that has anything to do with the internet. Some might end up winning big. But others will inevitably crash and burn. Some people may not want to have money on the table while this occurs (or while there is even a CHANCE of this occurring!)

In case you are wondering, I do realize how this sounds. It sounds alarmist and panicky, I know. Lot’s of things have to line up in a very particular way for this to occur. But that doesn’t mean that a) it’s definitely not going to happen or b) someone else is not thinking in this same way.

Again, just trying to figure out what might have spooked a big fish.

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