BABA again.

Interesting opinion piece which suggests Mr Munger is using leverage on BABA and has sold some BYD.

https://youtu.be/nHb93bvjcHg

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BABA may be in the cycle now where no matter what the news is the stock gradually rises. And it could be that most investment commentary is towards “sell the upswing” while the stock continues to go up.

Summary
DJCO sold BYD
DJCO bought a new unknown security using margin

I hope it’s a new company and not the HK version of BABA. I already have enough Alibaba but would happily follow Charlie into a new name, especially if he bought using margin.

"Interesting opinion piece which suggests Mr Munger is using leverage on BABA

-Munger doubles down on BABA in Q4, apparently using margin to do it.
-Greg Alexander*, who Buffett claims is one of the greatest (along with Klarman and Lu) adds 20% in Q4 to his already sizable BABA position.
-Bill Miller adds 6%.
-Tweedy Browne adds 29%.

  • Even Prem Watsa dips his toe in further, adding to a tiny portion.

https://dataroma.com/m/stock.php?sym=BABA

I know Charlie is being an “idiot” by buying BABA on margin, but can they all be idiots by adding BABA at the same time?

*Bill Ruane describing Greg Alexander in a 1997b Sequoia Fund report:

“Twelve years ago, Greg Alexander joined us (Sequoia) out of Yale where, despite his economics degree, it appears he spent most of his time reading annual reports. He is highly creative and still spends at least eight hours a day consuming annual reports. I don’t know anyone who processes more ideas with greater analytical depth and he is excellent at cutting through to the heart of an issue. He is a master of chewing through immense detail to reach original insights and judgments about our portfolio companies.”

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/89043/0000919574-97-…

If anyone can digest, comprehend, and feel comfortable with BABA’s 360+ annual report maybe it’s Greg Alexander?

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I know Charlie is being an “idiot” by buying BABA on margin, but can they all be idiots by adding BABA at the same time?

Though I personally think it highly likely returns on BABA will be very good from here,
I think the answer to that question is probably “yes”, it’s possible this set of people could all be wrong.
Lots of stocks through history have had a bandwagon of Eminent Experts back them and then they end up profitless or without shirts.
Not that I think this is the case here, but the apparent consensus itself means little.

Read some old issues of the Outstanding Investor Digest.
Sometimes the interviewees ended up being right, sometimes they weren’t.
Stuff happens.

As the saying goes, do your own research.

Jim

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“Read some old issues of the Outstanding Investor Digest.
Sometimes the interviewees ended up being right, sometimes they weren’t.
Stuff happens.“

Very true. IBM anyone.

Way too many variables in this game to predict the future with even close to 100% certainly. 60 or 70% would an example of great skill.

Position size, linked to personal circumstances very relevant.

Still, the dice has been rolled and we await the decades ahead…

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"Lots of stocks through history have had a bandwagon of Eminent Experts …

Rather than a “bandwagon”, I’d call them a small minority.

There does seem to be a bandwagon of “Eminent Experts”, including some on this board, who think the BABA Variable Interest Entity is essentially worthless.

Mr. Market seems lately to have been siding with that band of experts.

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