Incredible c75% drop from peak Oct 2020 of 310 to March 2022 now @ 80.
Amazing volatility.
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the question is does a 75% drawdown qualify as a mistake?
many believe for sure. Too hard pile for me.
Selling a portion or two of BRK and following the gurus into China (doing my own research and happy with it) has cost me dearly. You live and learn!
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My average is c$160
there is a “lollapalooza effect” on BABA’s stock price.
- China govt strengthen their hold on big techs. They don’t like certain class of people getting rich. They want “common prosperity”. (Maybe they will stop now cuz tencent and baba is rumored last night they will each layoff 30% of employees, and these guys are what’s supporting the local housing market).
— US govt threaten delistings
— Russian sanction could spill over to China.
— HK Covid spreading to Shenzhen and Shanghai, both are being lock down
— Weaker Chinese consumer spending online is definitely hurting baba.
— new CFO seems interested doing a lot of write downs on past investments
— saturating Taobao business
Having said that, the price is really low. Baba has almost no debt, lots of cash, is essentially a monopoly platform for small retailers selling online. Asset light, not much capx.
I haven’t bought any yet… but probably will…
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I started a small position back in September at $145. When the decline clearly bottoms I will add to that position.
When the decline clearly bottoms I will add to that position.
PP, now that’s an interesting statement. As you are watching the SaaS board and therefore surely SaaS stocks: Would you please tell me when they clearly bottom as I would love to buy them then? 
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Amazing volatility.
This is not volatility, this is straight decline.
You are in great company, my friends. This has been a truly costly (but fortunately rare) issue for me. I had dove in around $220’s with ol’ Munger and put my tail between my legs around $180-190. It was a silly sheepish non-backbone decision, but it proved to be quite lucky thus far.
We sure seem to be a long way from that sale price again… and that felt like a brief breath or two ago.
This whole experience has said volumes regarding my own investment capacities (despite a fair bit of education on the topic)… meaning that they are clearly quite diminished relative to the greats.
I’m delighted that ol’ Mungo finds QQEW/QQQE in a fair range as this is probably the pond I should be fishing in with 20+ year horizons.
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Unexpected tax refund this year, added to my position at $78.05. Time will tell.
PP, now that’s an interesting statement. As you are watching the SaaS board and therefore surely SaaS stocks: Would you please tell me when they clearly bottom as I would love to buy them then?
I’m going to watch the moving averages (20, 50, 200) closely, but short of watching the charts I’m not sure if there is any magic.
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Given the numbers and securities listed on that other board, not including the changes which have made things worse (the poster’s words), there’s a net loss for the master investor there from a beginning in 2017. Times change.
Selling a portion or two of BRK and following the gurus into China (doing my own research and happy with it) has cost me dearly. You live and learn!
On June 1st 2020 Berkshire B was at $178 and all was gloom and doom. If I told you then in less than 2 years it would be selling around $330 would you have believed me? I hold BABA around $168 so just trying to give us some helpful psychology !
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I was selling some BRK at c290 to 310 and buying BABA from 220 on down and average c160 atm so we’re at 50% of that now. I bought into the US vs China argument valuation, future growth and prospects etc. Prosus and Tencent have been equally poor investments. Should’ve just held BRK like I had for a decade. A blueprint for how to destroy a decade of portfolio returns in 6 months!
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<<I was selling some BRK at c290 to 310 and buying BABA from 220 on down and average c160 atm so we’re at 50% of that now. >>
We are in good company, I bought BABA from 220 all the way down to 77 today
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Down another 12% in Hong Kong last night, now -70.5% from 52 week high there.
Headline trailing P/E under 20, I guess.
I’ve speculated that a good way to play it is with call options, strike prices not super low, as the maximum possible loss is stringently capped.
But at some point the underlying security can be priced like a call option. Exercise price zero and no expiry.
I’m not sure we’re there yet, but we seem to be headed there.
There is a price for everything, even if there is a visible risk of a pick going to zero.
With the appropriate position size, of course.
At some point it would probably be kinda foolish not to own a little. Like BAC trading at $3.50, the current annual EPS.
With the appropriate position size, of course.
Jim
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I bought some units on the way down, but swapped them for call options. Added more calls yesterday as well.
Total capital committed including the realized losses on those initial units is still a single-digit percentage of my portfolio, so I’m quite content.
I love the risk/reward at these levels… but I refuse to commit more than 10% of my capital to a position that Chairman Pooh Bear can send to $0 with the stroke of a pen.
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Has anyone conducted a true PE or cash flow multiple calculation here that deducts the value of cash on balance sheet and investments in third-parties?
It’d be interesting to know that “ridiculous” price level.
Tencent and BABA up 20% in HK overnight.
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Now that’s volatility… .
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