I won’t post about the details of the pi$$ing match called the Brazilian election, but some of the details can be read here:
All of the above is worth reading and, despite the fact that, with the possible exception of Al Jazeera, the periodicals referenced are all biased towards da Silva as they tend to associate Bolsonaro with the policies of some US politicians.
So the question is whether Bolsonaro will concede the election which he lost by less than 1% despite the efforts of his party to interfere with the ability of the voters of the competition (which forced the Supreme Court to take a hand in correcting things).
Brazil is an agricultural, mining and manufacturing powerhouse (not to mention the Amazonian lungs of the globe) and its stability is not only important to its South American neighbors, but to their trading partners world-wide.
Not only Anbev (who makes the venerable Brahma Chops which is about as cool as you can get on a hot January Rio beach), but also Vale popped, despite the apparent shift of government emphasizing the trashing of the Amazon.
Just talking about this with my Brazilian neighbor. She is a Bolsonaro fan. I am a Lula fan. We dated twice but she is all about the money. That of course is not fair to any woman but she is not entirely fair to other people. She seems to feel others doing well is a loss of status for her. She was discussing her college days tonight where suddenly Lula’s party appeared and she had lessons in caring about the homeless. To me her response is another let down. I am elsewhere thinking of other women to date as I meet them.
I tried to explain to my friend that Bolsonaro was like Mussolini. Meaning Mussolini promised the trains would run on time. The trains were running every twenty minutes, three times an hour. Mussolini took office and had the trains run twice an hour. Now the trains were on time. The solution was the lie.
Bolsonaro way over did his prosecution of Lula. For instance yes cronies got jobs and some where possibly not so good. But that does not mean taking down Lula.
My neighbor said people got jobs and then did not show up. It was totally wrong according to her. I explained then in reviews one by one they needed to be fired if they were not preforming but people generally do honestly work.
Further I explained, since she works on an oncology floor in a hospital that everyone goes to a hospital to die. That does not make all doctors bad or mean people need to be fired en mas. But it is true most people go to a hospital to die. She got it and did not get it.
I did say she was protecting her status as if it was lost if others do well. She kind of got that but denied it. And that is why I wont date her. Besides she is making assumptions about my bank account which are wrong…
Very powerful business interests are illegally expropriating indigenous territory in the Amazon rain forest for mining, plantation agriculture and ranching. They have a history of violently defending their own interests. Although they are destroying a vital world resource (the lungs of the planet) their activities boost the Brazilian economy.
This puts Lula in a difficult position.
The news broadcast an interview with one of Lula’s supporters, a young woman who said that Lula would provide ordinary people like her with food in the stores and affordable gasoline. Obviously, this is a recipe for disappointment.
If Lula tries to enforce the law he will probably need the military to force the commercial interests out of the rain forest. Given the history of South America, that might cause a civil war in Brazil with Bolsonaro leading the rebellion. If Lula succeeds in shutting down successful (though illegal and destructive) businesses he will be undermining the Brazilian economy.
If Lula tries to satisfy his supporters with state-subsidized food and energy, Brazil’s economy will go down the tubes in the way of Venezuela.
Because the Amazon rain forest is so important for worldwide climate stabilization the situation affects everyone, not just Brazilians.
As you said, Brazil’s situation has worldwide Macroeconomic impact. Given the impossible tangle of commercial, indigenous and popular interests (not to mention the politics) it will be a miracle if this ends well.
That is not the main way Lula operates. He is a job creator. Meaning he supports unions, government jobs, government projects and regulations that demand higher standards that create jobs.
Subsidies are the least of it.
He may step out of the way of the central bank so that rates rise to head off inflation. Bolsonaro was much more in control of the central bank which is part of the economic decline under Bolsonaro. He was messing up royally. In other words Lula just has to get his office out of the way. Lula is much smarter than Bolsonaro. Lula is not well educated. But Bolsonaro is not intelligent.
Lula will raise taxes on the wealthy and corporations setting up an industrial policy. Brazil was getting rich until Bolsonaro get elected. Kind of like us.
The mining operations may in large part be producing for China. So they are in many cases going to be shutting down anyway. The majority of Brazilians are far too poor in a wealthy nation. The people get things are wrong. The people for good reasons will stop the miners. There is a sense of honesty and justice under Lula.