Bear case for Tesla: 1 sentence

[mostlylong]

@Smorgasbord1

Um, how about the one where they said they’d have automous vehicles in commercial service? Which they did, and do, in Austin.

That’s laughable.

Barely 1 vehicle occasionally going back and forth down a narrow section of a few streets is a marketing ploy, not a service.

No one serious about measuring scalable, publicly-available autonomy considers that a “service.”

Here’s a summary I posted on another thread:

@mostlylong

March 7, 2026

See, the thing there is you can see 1 car multiple times. However, other people ( literally dozens, probably well over 100 actually. ) are actually actively tracking the individual vehicles. ( You can check details out at robotaxitracker.com )
They have added 25 cybercabs in Austin, but only a handful of them are still in operation, and none seen particularly recently. They are also only in testing, not in service.
They added 8 unsupervised, but only 1 is still in operation. A single 1, operating in a very tiny area, is a publicity stunt.
89 Robotaxis have entered operation, but only 45 have been in service within the last month, and evidence suggests even less than that are currently in operation, but it’ll take a bit more time to be certain. ( Some quick calculations based on approximate daily sightings suggests it takes ~28 days to have a 95% confidence that all active vehicles have been seen. )
Tesla has averaged a pretty terrible ~45% availability.
You’ll also notice how Tesla has gone relatively silent mode ever since they announced the first driverless rollout. Almost like they have no good news to report.