https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/16/business/bear-markets-rec…
**Bear Markets and Recessions Happen More Often Than You Think**
**The U.S. has been in recession 14 percent of the time since World War II. But being prepared can minimize hardship and even offer investing opportunities.**
**By Jeff Sommer, The New York Times, June 16, 2022**
**....Since 1929, the U.S. stock market has been in a bear market nearly 24 percent of the time. Note that in this authoritative accounting, a bear market starts on the first day of declines that become 20 percent downdrafts. According to S&P Indices, the S&P 500 has been in a bear market since Jan. 3, when the decline began....**
**We do have precise readings on the dates of past recessions going all the way back to 1854. Using data from the bureau’s website, I did some calculations, with the help of Salil Mehta, a statistician. I found that since 1854, the United States has been in a recession 29 percent of the time. From 1945 through 2020, it was in a recession only 14 percent of the time.**
**But consider this finding, derived from the data and produced by Mr. Mehta: On any day in the postwar period, the chance that the United States was in a recession or would be within two years was 46 percent....** [end quote]
The “risk” part of METAR is very significant and ever-present. People who started investing after 2009 have never experienced a time when the Federal Reserve was doing massive monetary pumping that led to inflation in asset prices.
If you invest, always be prepared to pay for expenses out of cash flow or savings that are not at risk from the markets.
Wendy
