Bear's DecQ Earnings Thoughts: Vol3

Volume 1:…
Volume 2:…

Quite a week!

AMC = After Markets Closed
BMO = Before Markets Opened


Instructure (INST) reported AMC. It was a very solid quarter, but for me, zero surprises. They beat a silly-low expected revenue by 5%, and lost 27 cents instead of 28 (adj. EPS). Yawn.

But the next morning the stock jumped 15%. I trimmed a bit, but have already considered adding it back. My thought was to keep it small, because it’s not profitable yet. But neither are some of these others (like Talend). We’ll see what the coming weeks and months offer up.


Hubspot (HUBS) reported AMC. It was amazing. Revenue growth ticked up to 39% (a $5M beat). EPS of 12 cents almost doubled the expectation. Hubspot now has 41,593 customers (up 48% YoY), and though S&M per new customer is less than half what they used to spend, the average subscription is holding at over $10,000. Brilliant.

The market’s reaction was somewhat muted, with Hubspot having a “normal” day on a day (Wednesday) that was anything but normal. But to be fair, it was already trading around all time highs before earnings were announced.

Talend (TLND) reported AMC. I’d say it was very solid. Revenue was up 36%, subscription revenue was up 40%. It seems like they just ate a sub-par growth quarter to pay it forward to Q1 2018, because guidance for next quarter is $45.3 million to $46.3 million. That’s 3% more growth than this quarter…and I imagine they plan to beat it. Also, most of the Restlet acquisition costs were absorbed this quarter, although they still lost 0.01 less than expected, but they’ll lose much less in Q1 2018.

The market big Talend up 10% or so on Wednesday, but with a PS around 8, and shares still only around 90% of their all time high, Talend looks pretty attractive.

Twilio (TWLO) reported AMC. I could pretty much copy/paste what I wrote last quarter. The top line 41% growth is good, of course, but continues to slow. The more concerning thing is that Gross Margin only grew 26% YoY, while OpEx grew 33%. Result? Oper Loss was 13M in Q4 last year. This year it was 20M. They’re losing more and more money even as revenue grows! Yikes!

So of course, shares were up 16% on Wednesday. Ha. Actually that worked out for me because I’d bought a few cheap Call options…just thinking that any decent to good news could cause this beaten down dog to bounce. I was lucky…I guess even a broken clock is right twice a day. But I will NOT be taking possession of the stock, and do not recommend holding it. Next quarter could be very discouraging if the margins do not improve.


Wix (WIX) reported BMO. This was a perfect report – literally everything I wanted to see.

Revenue: 118.5M (up 41%) a decent beat…but wait for their Q1 2018 guidance!
EPS: +0.16! Nailed it.
ACPS (avg collections per new sub): ticked up to $159
FCF: 19.6M
Prem Users Added: 170,000
Collections: 132.2M

But here’s the kicker:
March 2018 Revenue Guidance: $135 - $136 million (up 46%!!!)
March 2018 Collections Guidance : $157 - $158 million

Great quarter, couldn’t ask for anything more, and they still seem to be building for bigger and better!


Shopify (SHOP) reported BMO. Here’s my review:…

Absolutely amazing, this company. Oh and shout out to FourthStooge for this great addition:…

Arista (ANET) reported AMC. I’ve said my piece already:

Loved adding some shares. I think the selling was overdone and the share price will reverse course soon, but if it should fall further I’m prepared to add more.