Bear's Portfolio through Apr 2018

To borrow from the bard, April was a month full of sound and fury, but in the end it came to pretty much nothing. I’m about flat with where I was at the end of March: up 28% for the year. The S&P, despite outperforming me in April, remains down on the year.

I used the volatility in April to add to my favorite positions. It’s something I’ve learned from Saul, seeing him do the same in volatile times past. I figure, the positions I’ve built over time are the ones I know best, and when they’re down, unless something has changed, it’s just an opportunity to get a bargain price. I even sold out of a few things I like to add to things I like more. This has caused a big shift in my portfolio. I’m down from 14 positions to 11 in just a month, and my top 5 positions have really separated from the pack. SHOP, ANET, WIX, AYX, and SQ now make up 64% of my portfolio. To quote Saul, “That’s an awful lot in [5] stocks!”

After these top 5, I basically have my eye on adding:

  1. More shares of the other stocks I own
  2. Other stocks I’ve been watching
  3. Some stocks I’ve sold

It’s just a matter of getting comfortable with the company. PSTG is the one I’m most optimistic about right now, so don’t be surprised if it continues to grow until it’s closer to the top 5 in allocation.

I hope everybody is having a great 2018, learning a lot, and enjoying this remarkable time to invest. It really is a wonderful time to be alive.

My Portfolio Performance

**This Month**
My Portfolio              +0.01%
S&P                       +0.38%
Nasdaq                    +0.04%
Russell 2000              +0.98%
My Portfolio             +28.03%
S&P                       -0.38%
Nasdaq                    +2.36%
Russell 2000              +0.56%

Previous Month Summaries

Dec 2016 (contains links to all 2016 monthly posts):…
Dec 2017 (contains links to all 2017 monthly posts):…
Jan 2018:…
Feb 2018:…
Mar 2018:…

My Current Allocations

Ticker	Curr%	Buy/S	Mo Ch	YTD Ch
SHOP	16.6%	8%	7.3%	32.3%
ANET	13.8%	28%	3.6%	12.3%
WIX	12.5%	8%	3.4%	42.9%
AYX	10.9%	35%	-8.5%	23.7%
SQ	10.2%	27%	-3.8%	36.5%
PSTG	6.2%	30%	1.4%	27.6%
HDP	5.6%	0%	-16.9%	-15.8%
TLND	5.5%	-29%	1.4%	30.2%
HUBS	4.8%	11%	-2.2%	19.8%
MU	2.2%	0%	-11.8%	11.8%
INST	1.8%	0%	-3.8%	22.5%
options	1.9%			
cash	7.9%			

New 2018
January - No adds
February - AYX, NEWR, OKTA
March - MDB
April - No adds

Sold 2018
January - TTD
February - TDOC, ALRM
March - NVEE

I commented that I sold MDB and was just watching through the lockup expiration. I continue to just watch. I sold NEWR and OKTA opportunistically, as the share prices were pretty high while other things were down. I used the proceeds to add to the other things (mostly ANET, AYX, and SQ).

I now have shares in 11 companies, compared to 14 at the end of March. I also have options positions in some other companies.

SHOPIFY - SHOP (16.6%)

About the company: To slightly modify what they say about themselves, Shopify is “the only platform you need to build your [small or medium sized business] empire [online].” They provide a website, a way to take payments, SEO optimization, etc, etc, etc. They’re innovating and growing…and boy are they growing. They make money when businesses sign up with them, and then they make more when those business grow and sell more stuff.

Latest Quarter Review:…

Recent Action: After adding back some shares in March, I added a bit more in April. Thanks, Andrew Left!

Plans: This is a top confidence position, and I’m in this company for the long haul.


About the company: Arista sells network switches, just like Cisco, except Arista’s switches use SDN (Software Defined Networking), which I understand makes for better control, performance, and security. Oh, they’re also pretty hard to make, because Cisco is sucking wind trying to catch Arista, but to no avail.

Latest Quarter Review:

Recent Action: I added back quite a few shares in April. I thought the price action was ridiculous, and purchased my shares at $242.

Plans: Obviously I like this company and its management a lot and plan to hold indefinitely.

WIX.COM - WIX (12.5%)

About the company: Wix is a company that helps users create websites, and then hosts them. It makes most of its money by charging subscription fees for premium content. It has over 100M users, and more than 3M of them pay for premium accounts.

Latest Quarter Review:… - I especially love the guidance for revenue acceleration! I think 2018 is going to be a BIG year for Wix.

Recent Action: I added a bit back in April.

Plans: I’m happy with the size of this position, and I still think it has a long way to run.

ALTERYX - AYX (10.9%)

About the company: A very familiar friend to many on this board (most of all its eponymous leader), Alteryx is a little company that is changing the landscape of data integration and analysis for data scientists. They have a product that from all accounts is inexpensive, easy to implement, and saves users incredible amounts of time while enhancing accuracy. The companies who try it seem to love it, because every year they spend (on average) 30%+ more money with Alteryx!

Latest Quarter Review: I called it “perfect,” and I stand by that:…

Recent Action: I have continued adding significantly in April, especially as the shares have pulled back.

Plans: Probably won’t add too much more unless I get a fat pitch – happy with the size of this position. (But then, I said this in my March review, and in April I got a fat pitch.)

SQUARE - SQ (10.2%)

About the company: If you’ve ever paid with a credit card at a local vendor, there’s a good chance they used a Square device to take the payment. Square also provides many other services available to their customers. One of the most profitable is Square Capital, which really leverages their data advantages to offer extremely profitable and low-risk loans to their customers.

Latest Quarter Review:…

Recent Action: I have continued to add back opportunistically. I decided in April that Square is really a top conviction stock for me, despite its pricey valuation.

Plans: Find a way to meet Sarah Friar, on whom I have a huge crush.


About the company: Pure Storage provides flash storage arrays. Storage arrays are nothing new, but flash is different. How different? Bert Hochfeld says it’s the biggest change in storage since spinning discs replaced tape:…

Latest Quarter Review: Saul wrote this one up:…

Recent Action: I added to this as planned in April.

Plans: Hold, and possibly add more.


About the company: Hortonworks helps companies manage big data with Hadoop. Customers subscribe to the HDP software platform, and Hortonworks stores, processes, and analyzes their data.

Latest Quarter Review: 63%+ growth in subscription revenue the last 2 quarters – simply astounding. Their growth is accelerating.

Recent Action: Well, we’re back at $17/share (where I increased my position in February). This time I’m just holding, content with the position size.

Plans: Probably just hold, but we will see. Wouldn’t increase to more than a mid-sized position.

TALEND - TLND (5.5%)

About the company: Talend has carved out a niche within big data integrations by specializing in Hadoop, an expertise that will not be easily disrupted. Saul has called them a “category crusher,” a leader with no viable competition in its niche. I tend to agree, though others will not ignore this space forever. Hopefully Talend will continue to build up years of subscription revenues while they occupy the catbird seat.

Latest Quarter Review:… - A slightly down quarter at only 36% revenue growth, but guidance to grow faster next quarter.

Recent Action: I trimmed a bit on this one in April. Just wanted to limit my exposure in the near term, and keep it at the size where I’d be willing to add a little if headwinds struck.

Plans: Hold and enjoy, but not add unless there is a bargain.


About the company: Hubspot helps companies manage their brand online. This is much more than just buying ads. This is SEO, website, blog, social media, etc, etc. Hubspot is such a powerful and value-adding tool for marketing departments (a CMO’s dream) that I can’t see why any company of a certain size wouldn’t want to use it, and use it increasingly. Of course with a product that’s this much of a value add, there are certainly competitors. Yet it sure seems to me like Hubspot is a leader, if not THE leader, in the space, and the results it continues to achieve seem to confirm this.

Latest Quarter Review:… Fantastic quarter of acceleration.

Recent Action: I added just a small amount in April.

Plans: This one is fine around 5% – I like it and have no plans to sell it, but it’s probably not going to be a top holding for me again.

MICRON - MU (2.2%)

About the company: Micron (MU) makes chips for four different business units: Compute and Networking (CNBU) - read: DRAM, Storage (SBU) - read: SSDs, Mobile (MBU) - read: NAND, Embedded (EBU) - read: Auto. I’ve talked about how cheap they are before, and how they’re seen as a commodity (and may be). The numbers seem too good to be true.

Latest Quarter Review: Ant wrote this one up: (Looks like everything is solid here)

Recent Action: Glad I trimmed significantly in March. In April I just held, as the share price fell 12%. I really feel this stock is undervalued, but my conviction will never allow me to add a lot of shares.

Plans: I’m fine keeping a small position, because I think there’s tons of upside. But this will never be a large position.


About the company: I brought Instructure to the board in September 2017.… It’s is a cloud-based learning management platform for academic institutions and companies across the world. Their platform enables virtual learning, and they’ve gotten so good at it in the education context (since they started in 2008) that they’re now (actually since early 2015) offering it in a business context as well. Their classroom product is called Canvas, and their business solution is called Bridge. They are constantly signing school districts and businesses to expand their reach to hundreds of thousands of new users.

Latest Quarter Review: They reported today (4/30) and it was a revenue and EPS beat. I plan to write it up soon.

Recent Action: I still love INST, but I just love other stuff more. Just held my tiny position in April.

Plans: Maybe add back, but I’m ok with a smallish position here.

My best to all!


“I guarantee nothing but hard work.” - Bear Bryant, Alabama Football Coach, 1958 - 1982

“If you must tell me your opinions, tell me what you believe in. I have plenty of doubts of my own.” attributed to Goethe (but not sourced)

“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” - Attributed to Albert Einstein

“exponential compounded growth does not fit the analytical backward looking skill sets of most Wall street analysts” - mauser96

“I presume the thing is to ride the momentum for the short squeeze and exit fast with enough money for a few months supply of whisky before everyone realises it’s a value trap.” - Strelna


Recent Action: After adding back some shares in March, I added a bit more in April. Thanks, Andrew Left!

Adding more in May on today’s carnage?

1 Like

Adding more in May on today’s carnage?

Up 5% yesterday, down 10% today. Up from where it was last Wednesday,hardly carnage…


Happy to see you keeping the faith on WIX! It seems like they are pretty unloved around these parts. I can definitely sympathize that the story seems played out, with 109 Million sites already built with Wix, it’s hard to imagine being able to keep up this pace. Also, a Square backed Weebly might up their competition.

But for now, Wix ADI and Wix Code seem to be getting a good reception, and they report “Results propelled by outstanding cohort behavior – conversion of registered users to premium subscriptions and retention of subscriptions are at all-time highs”

Earnings report next week, hopefully it’s more of the same.