Bear's Portfolio through May 2020

My 2020 Portfolio Performance YTD as of

Jan +23.79%
Feb +26.86%
Mar +10.12%
Apr +31.49%
May +62.13%

My Current Allocations

Ticker	Curr%	Buy/S	Mo Ch	YTD Ch
CRWD	17.0%	-11%	29.8%	76.1%
ESTC	13.3%	-11%	34.0%	33.6%
ZM	12.2%	8%	32.8%	163.8%
AYX	11.8%	-50%	27.2%	43.8%
ROKU	11.1%	24%	-9.7%	-18.2%
FSLY	9.2%	NEW	99.3%	114.9%
WORK	5.8%	NEW	31.3%	55.9%
LVGO	2.9%	NEW	49.8%	139.1%
options	2.0%			
cash	14.6%

New 2020
January - PINS
February - none
March - OKTA
April - ROKU
May - LVGO (again), WORK, FSLY, PLAN

Sold 2020
January - none
February - HUBS
March - SQ, LVGO, MDB
April - OKTA

Why I did what I did this month


I also added to FSLY many times on dips. I think this one is potentially still quite undervalued, which is amazing to say since they basically doubled this month and have almost quadrupled from their March low. But their PS of 19 leaves room for expansion (or at least seems unlikely to contract) if they become a consistent 50%+ or 60%+ grower.





PLAN - I sold PLAN because the quarter they reported this month didn’t show any of the signs I was looking for. This investment was a bet that the Q results would show them weathering the current environment better than most, and that their stock would get bid up. Even though I sold for slightly more than I bought it for, I would NOT say this bet worked out. Oh well. That’s why it was only a small position anyway.


SMAR - This was a small position already, because it’s hard for me to know what to make of them long term. As the PS rose, I felt more and more like taking profit and moving on. I did.

DDOG - This was a MUCH smaller position for me than for others here. The PS ratio they have always sported (30+ before and 50+ now) shows that the market sees it as a long-term, inevitable winner. I just don’t have as much confidence, although clearly they are killing it now. So far I have certainly been wrong in thinking revenue would start to slow, and I may continue to be wrong. Oh well, I can’t invest in every company. Not even every company that is currently killing it with their results.


I trimmed CRWD and ESTC slightly near the end of May, as I tend to do when one of my large positions is up 30% or more in just a few weeks.

I added to ROKU when it went down, but only to a point. I am not adding any more. I see them as a long term winner, but I want to see a better quarter in a couple months, especially when it comes to gross margin. If I don’t, I’m not sure I see them as much of a near-term winner as I’d like, and I might decide my money is better off elsewhere.

I added to ZM slightly when it was down.

I trimmed AYX considerably, but decided to keep it a large position, because I think they still have a lot of potential not only long term, but in the short term as well. I discussed that here:

Wrapping Up

The re-shuffling continues, as many of our companies are now up 30% or 40% in the last several weeks, and many other companies in software and of course in other sectors, are down. I can barely believe the results some of our companies are having, but I’m constantly becoming more confident in what the future looks like for some of them. The market is too, and that makes the stock prices get bid up. Some have been bid up quite a bit, but others like ESTC, not so much…yet.

I am beyond excited for ZM’s conference call this Tuesday. Get the popcorn – it’s going to be something to behold! We’ll learn a lot the rest of the week too, with CRWD and ESTC and WORK and others reporting. Good luck to all!


“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” - Attributed to Albert Einstein

Previous Month Summaries

Dec 2016 (contains links to all 2016 monthly posts):…
Dec 2017 (contains links to all 2017 monthly posts):…
Dec 2018 (contains links to all 2018 monthly posts):…
Dec 2019 (contains links to all 2019 monthly posts):…

Jan 2020:…
Feb 2020:…
Mar 2020:…
Apr 2020:…


Hi Bear, thanks for your update. I wrote the bullish view on PLAN which you reference above :…

HOWEVER, my investment thesis turned out wrong on as you point out because the key issue was the billings growth slowdown, which I expected to turn around given my reading of the CEO’s comments and the restructuring of the sales team.

Key issue: Billing growth dropped from >50% in prior Qs to 25% in Q4.

This did not happen, and in stead billings growth decelerated sharply to 10% in Q1.

Because of that I sold my full position on the day of the results, also at a profit, but that was due to blind luck…