My 2018 Portfolio Performance YTD as of
Jan +12.97% Feb +25.35% Mar +28.02% Apr +28.03% May +40.39% Jun +53.23% Jul +46.44% Aug +78.67% Sep +82.00% Oct +63.92% Nov +71.47%
November was a volatile month, in which at times my portfolio was down another 10% from the end of October (but still up 40-something percent YTD). Luckily, in the last week or so it has rebounded a lot, and I turned in a positive month after all.
One of the worst hits to my portfolio in November was Talend. Obviously I ended up getting rid of it as I had a lot of buying opportunities with other stocks, especially MDB, AYX, NEWR, and PAYC, so I moved my Talend money there. I haven’t yet re-invested the NTNX money, because I just sold a couple days ago. But you can see all that below. So let’s begin.
Previous Month Summaries
Dec 2016 (contains links to all 2016 monthly posts): http://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-at-the-end-of-2016-…
Dec 2017 (contains links to all 2017 monthly posts): http://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-dec-2017-32…
Jan 2018: http://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-jan-2018-32…
Feb 2018: http://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-feb-2018-32…
Mar 2018: http://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-mar-2018-33…
Apr 2018: http://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-apr-2018-33…
May 2018: http://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-may-2018-33…
Jun 2018: http://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-june-2018-3…
Jul 2018: http://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-july-2018-3…
Aug 2018: http://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-aug-2018-33…
Sep 2018: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-sep-2018-3…
Oct 2018: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-oct-2018-3…
My Current Allocations
Ticker Curr% Buy/S Mo Ch YTD Ch MDB 10.8% 51% 1.7% 183.4% WIX 10.7% 0% -3.3% 63.6% AYX 10.5% 43% 13.6% 138.1% NEWR 9.5% 56% -2.3% 50.9% TWLO 9.0% -15% 25.6% 300.4% PAYC 8.1% 40% 6.0% 65.3% ZS 5.8% 0% 8.2% PSTG 5.3% NEW -6.3% 19.2% ESTC 4.4% -22% 5.1% SHOP 2.7% -38% 10.5% 51.1% TDOC 2.2% 0% -9.9% 79.2% ARNA 2.1% 0% 15.0% 13.3% ANET 2.1% -38% 3.5% 1.2% SQ 1.2% -50% -4.9% 101.4% options 6.3% cash 9.5%
January - No adds
February - AYX, NEWR, OKTA
March - MDB
April - No adds
May - NTNX
June - PVTL
July - PAYC (again), MDB (again)
August - NEWR (again), TWLO (again)
September - ZS, ARNA
October - ESTC, TDOC (again)
November - PSTG (again)
January - TTD
February - TDOC, ALRM
March - NVEE
April - MDB, OKTA, NEWR
May - none
June - PVTL, HDP
July - MU, HUBS
August - none
September - PSTG
October - INST
November - TLND, NTNX
I have 14 positions currently. I’m a little bored with my old format, so I’m going to try something new this month. I’m going to try to cut down on the info that’s repeated here each month, and just say a little below about how I see my portfolio. It has really gotten more concentrated. Despite 14 positions, the bottom 5 make up just 10% combined, so it’s really a small number of companies driving things. Here’s how I see it:
Tier 1: The top-conviction companies:
Mongo Db 10.8%
New Relic 9.5%
I’ve let Mongo grow bigger than I planned, but I mean, it’s a beast. Still only a ~4B market cap, but growing like just about nothing else (besides Twilio and Alteryx). Also, the short interest has risen the last month or two, so despite the lofty valuation, I feel like there’s potential for a pop if they can turn in another quarter of acceleration. https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/mdb/short-interest
I can’t move Wix down. They’re so steady, and the profitability engine is accelerating. Alteryx is doing the same, and even more so because they are growing MUCH faster, and Mkt Cap is just under 4B there too. The crazy thing is that Wix, with close to 3 times as much revenue as MDB or AYX, is also at a market cap of only about 4.6B!!! It’s a true bargain.
New Relic has kicked profitability into gear in a huge way, and is really undervalued in my opinion – a story that will go on for years, methinks. Paycom is similar to NEWR – profit as well as 30%+ revenue growth – but more mature.
Twilio is a behemoth, as Saul says.
I can find no fault with these 6. Ironically, MDB might be the only one for which I would give a caveat, and that’s how far they are from profitability. I may trim a bit of that before earnings.
In general, I’m happy with these as 8 or 10 percent positions.
Tier 2: Mid-sized positions – some of which I’m planning to build higher:
Pure Storage 5.3%
Pure Storage is one I just couldn’t resist as they shed 40%. I probably won’t make it a large position, though. Zscaler and Elastic are just so expensive, I can’t make them large positions…yet. I’m adding opportunistically, and learning more about these two companies.
Tier 3: Positions I’m not interested in adding to right now, or possibly ever.
I suppose I should say a little about 2 former top positions, Shopify and Square. I believe SHOP and SQ will do fine, but their mega-return days are behind them. They’ve grown so much, it’s impossible to sustain the growth rate. SQ’s revenue acceleration can’t continue, and SHOP’s revenue has already started to decelerate. SHOP is cheaper right now, but both are unlikely to double in the near future.
Teladoc and Arena are fliers. I won’t be adding any to Arena, and not much to Teladoc.
Arista is unique. It’s a true growth company, but more mature than most of mine. And a lot of their product is hardware.
Please let me know what you think about this new format. One thing I may add is a link to a post describing each company. I don’t really have those posts yet, so for now please refer to my old monthly write-ups (links above).
My best to all!
“I guarantee nothing but hard work.” - Bear Bryant, Alabama Football Coach, 1958 - 1982
“A man’s gotta know his limitations.” - Dirty Harry
“If you must tell me your opinions, tell me what you believe in. I have plenty of doubts of my own.” attributed to Goethe (but not sourced)
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” - Attributed to Albert Einstein
“exponential compounded growth does not fit the analytical backward looking skill sets of most Wall street analysts” - mauser96
“I presume the thing is to ride the momentum for the short squeeze and exit fast with enough money for a few months supply of whisky before everyone realises it’s a value trap.” - Strelna