Bear's Portfolio through Oct 2019

PaulWBryant · October 31, 2019, 4:55pm

My 2019 Portfolio Performance YTD as of


Jan +22.48%
Feb +33.46%
Mar +38.27%
Apr +46.86%
May +43.50%
Jun +58.27%
Aug2 +65.38%
Aug(31) +62.13%
Sep +35.64%
Oct +32.16%

New 2019
January - DOCU
February - SAIL
March - TTD (again), ESTC (again) and MDB (again)
April - None
May - SQ (again), ZS (again), EVBG, PLAN
Jun - CRWD, FSLY, WORK, TWOU
Jul - MDB (again)
Aug - PINS, OKTA
Sep - CRWD (again), DDOG
Oct - none

Sold 2018
January - SHOP, SQ
February - WIX, MDB
March - PSTG, ZS
April - None
May - SAIL, ZEN, NEWR, OKTA
Jun - MDB, ARNA
Jul - None
Aug - EVBG, CRWD, FSLY, PLAN, TWOU
Sep - SQ, TDOC, DOCU
Oct - TTD, OKTA, TWLO

My Current Allocations


Ticker	Curr%	Buy/S	Mo Ch	YTD Ch
AYX	20.3%	188%	-14.8%	53.9%
SMAR	14.5%	9%	9.4%	58.5%
MDB	13.8%	-7%	6.1%	52.6%
ESTC	13.3%	33%	-12.5%	0.7%
CRWD	9.2%	71%	-14.4%	#DIV/0!
ZS	8.8%	30%	-6.9%	12.2%
DDOG	4.1%	300%	-0.9%	#DIV/0!
PINS	3.9%	0%	-5.0%	#DIV/0!
options	3.8%			
cash	8.3%

WHY I DID WHAT I DID THIS MONTH

Bought

No new buys in October

Sold

TWLO - Yep. They really had an awful quarter: https://discussion.fool.com/i-have-now-sold-all-my-twilio-one-of…

TTD and OKTA. Selling TTD was entirely opportunity-based. I simply had some things that were down big that I wanted to add to. Sort of the same with OKTA, although I don’t see why it deserves to be valued 25% or 30% higher than my others.

Added to or Trimmed

Shuffled a little money between SMAR and MDB, but nothing significant

Added a TON to AYX. It finally hit lows below $90 this month (down from highs near $150 just a couple months ago) and I just took advantage. This is definitely the position I’ve added to most lately. I’ve been sold on the company’s future for well over a year…maybe going on 2 years now. The only thing that’s made me trim in the past has been valuation. What an awesome opportunity to again make this a top position.

Added to ESTC opportunistically a couple times. I don’t see any signs they’re slowing down, and the valuation is nice and bargainy.

Added a lot to CRWD as it was down as much as anything this month. The reasons? FUD and rumors.

Added to ZS - Seems like peak negativity. This one isn’t my favorite of ours and will never be among my top positions, but it does have a lot of positives: a balance of growth and profitability, SaaS model, and a lot of buy-in from big companies in the industry, and influential persons.

Quadrupled my DDOG position. Still not very familiar with them yet, but I wanted to take at least a small position while I had the chance.

Passed

ROKU – I just don’t get it
COUP – seems overvalued
ZM – seems overvalued
OKTA – seems overvalued
TTD – no particular reason. I’ll probably get back in.
FSLY – need to see more customer adds

Wrapping Up

I’m always learning how short my memory can be. Many times this month I’ve had to remind myself of the last Q results my companies reported. Just seeing stocks fall can make a person feel differently about the businesses. I’ve tried to fight those feelings.

It’s nice to see the up days, and it’s nice to have made a little money back. It’s nice to feel less poor. But it’s also nice to see these companies as no longer overvalued…perhaps even showing some room to grow for the first time in a while.

I’m down to 8 companies, and though I haven’t looked into it yet, if the PINS quarter is as bad as the market’s reaction, I may be down to 7 soon. I’d love to find more, but I’m convinced these are the best.

Good luck to all in November, and have a happy Halloween!

Bear

“I guarantee nothing but hard work.” - Bear Bryant, Alabama Football Coach, 1958 - 1982

“A man’s gotta know his limitations.” - Dirty Harry

“If you must tell me your opinions, tell me what you believe in. I have plenty of doubts of my own.” attributed to Goethe (but not sourced)

“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” - Attributed to Albert Einstein

“exponential compounded growth does not fit the analytical backward looking skill sets of most Wall street analysts” - mauser96

“I presume the thing is to ride the momentum for the short squeeze and exit fast with enough money for a few months supply of whisky before everyone realises it’s a value trap.” - Strelna

NajdorfSicilian · November 1, 2019, 10:36am

Thanks for the update, Bear. Like you I sold out of OKTA previously and TWLO after their report, and I still don’t get ROKU either.

brandonwahl · November 1, 2019, 12:03pm

Much better bull cases for ROKU have been laid out previously, and in far greater detail than my own bullet points below. That said, here is my quick primary bull thesis for why I believe in the company:

More and more media entities are developing their own OTT streaming option. Eventually, and sports/live events is really the last domino to fall, all viewing will be done digitally.
While these media entities are releasing content on their app, they aren’t offering their own delivery device. For example, Disney+ doesn’t have a physical stick/box that you use to watch it on.
These companies are also giving away their content for free right now, simply to build a user base. For example, if you buy an Apple product right now you automatically get a free year of Apple TV+. And, even though Apple has their own hardware device, they still allow their content to be accessible through ROKU. This is also true for other companies that offer their own content/hardware option.
The growth story for ROKU is not about their hardware, but the eyeball monetization they are generating from their software platform as more and more content becomes available for viewing. In short, the Facebook model of “we sell ads, Senator.”

Thank you for sharing your monthly portfolio reviews. I enjoy reading and learning from them.

Brandon

brittlerock · November 3, 2019, 5:45am

Not very directly related to Bear’s portfolio, but while get Roku, I sold my smallish position. I liked Alteryx better and while I already had a large position, now I have a larger position. Also, Roku is B2C which makes me nervous. Consumers can be very fickle and will rapidly ditch a product (especially some that goes for under $100) for a new shiny toy. A bit harder to ditch if it’s embedded inside your TV, but I don’t think Roku installed TVs represent a whole lot of the business, at least not yet. I think B2B is stickier. Once a company commits to a product, even if it is not all that hard to replace (i.e., Zoom), they just tend to stay loyal, more so than consumers anyway.

That’s not to say that I might change my mind and get back in. But for now, I’m out.

rliu · November 4, 2019, 12:19am

normally you are right, consumers are fickle. But still depends on which kinds of consumer. IMO ROKU’s target clients are much like “couch potato…” they are not willing try any new stuff even better,no fence though. So you will eventually understand why ROKU can lead the market share than Amazon or Google even apple. So I believe the most important part for riding super CTV tailwind is taking this train.Just for reference;)

NajdorfSicilian · November 4, 2019, 12:03pm

I certainly hear all what you are saying on this and what others have told me before, but just to take your sports/live example, I signed up for DAZN boxing this weekend and streamed it through my PS 3/4. I had to click one extra button to download it.

If I didn’t have a PS, I could stream it to my PC.

The media companies are simply not going to let Roku hold all the cards here. They will happily give their devices away for free/stream on anyone’s to get the eyeballs and user info and ads.

Roku has 29m active users as of May, last data I quickly found, PlayStation has 94 million, for example. You can stream literally everything on your PS. I realize it is more expensive than a Roku stick but obviously a PS comes with a Blu-ray player and more importantly, a huge gaming capability/network. I’ve even played Fortnite on it, which was free of course.

I’ve been completely wrong on the name so far, but I’ll continue to invest in other names that make more sense to me.