Bear's Post-Earnings Doldrums

4/26. That’s the one day since January that, when the market closed for the day, I found myself in the green for 2016 YTD. Albeit an anemic 0.04%.

Fast forward a couple weeks to 5/11. I am now (again) down 13% YTD. Not to mention, there’s only one day since 4/26 on which I have beaten the S&P.

Earlier this year the market went through a minor correction. The S&P was down 10.5% on 2/11. I was down more like 20%, but everything was down, and I shuffled into the stocks I felt were the most under-priced.

But today the S&P is actually up 1% on the year. That makes it a lot more annoying to be 13% down (which is already pretty annoying in its own right). Yesterday was particularly frustrating, as while I was down substantially, the market gained 1.25%. It’s not like the market’s saying it doesn’t want stocks…just that it doesn’t want my stocks.

The reasons I am down this time are somewhat different. The main reason is several quarterly reports that didn’t please the market. Some of them understandably so, some of them not.

Though the reasons are different, the feelings are similar. Decisions to buy things a couple weeks ago feel stupid now. But I know that if the situation had been reversed and my stocks had gained value the last two weeks, I’d be feeling awesome.

So I guess this is just a gut check. A reminder not to feel too smart or too stupid. And especially that you just never know what the market will do. You may perceive a report as good and then value the stock more, and the share price may immediately drop. Maybe it’s now a better bargain. But it’s worth trying to figure out what the market is doing. It’s never completely irrational – it just judges differently than I do. Judging is all about taking many different factors and performing a balancing act – absolutes are usually not particularly helpful (except maybe “Never use margin”).

I’m not sure these thoughts are even helpful, but I’m going to post it anyway. If anyone’s feeling like me after earnings, maybe it will be encouraging.



…there’s only one day since 4/26 on which I have beaten the S&P.

You’ll drive yourself crazy making this comparison every day!

If you’re going to make this comparison, it’s got to be over a (much) longer time period.

Any particular day could do anything, and means nothing long term.

So I guess this is just a gut check…

And I disagree that this is a gut check. The markets overall are pretty near all time highs, they could easily drop another 10%, 20%, even 30% or more over the next 6 months (which I’m sure would take all our stocks down even more!).

I’m right there with you, haven’t had a stellar last couple weeks in the market, but you need to stand back and take a wider (and more patient) view of the whole thing.

Just my opinions, take them for what they’re worth, which is exactly what you paid for them. :wink:


Most of my stocks had pretty good earnings reports this quarter, but you’d never know it by the way the stock prices went down. So, to a certain extent, I think I know how you feel.

That said, I have been investing for a very long time and if there is one thing i’ve learned (although I hope I’ve learned more than one thing!) it is that patience can be a good friend. Sometimes it takes Mr. Market while to figure out how good a given company really is.



I’m guessing a lot of us are in the same situation. News that I would normally perceive as 90% good/great or mostly irrelevant have dragged my stocks down 4.5% in less than a week. While the S&P is doing ok (but not great).

I have no extra $$ right now to buy low even if I were so inclined (which I’m doubtful at the moment).

Feeling like the George Costanza of stock picking right now (do the opposite of me).

long… face (get it!) :wink:


My portfolio is down significantly since it’s high point ( for this year )
on April 22nd… Feeling the pain,

But, there is nothing wrong with the companies I own. I am holding and adding.


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