Hi Ben – I just wanted to say I think your analysis of the $50k+ customer NRR is spot on. Kudos for running that down with IR!
Also, as Justin (thesea) noted here, Monday op loss guide - #7 by thesea, the $50k+ customers only make up about 22% of Monday’s revenue. (Guess that makes sense…it’s less than 1200 customers out of 150,000+ total customers MNDY has. Their average customer spends just around $3,000/year with Monday.)
200 customers crossed the $50k mark this quarter, 167 last quarter, and 183 the quarter before that…and it was 143 and 135 the previous two quarters. A year before that they were adding just a few dozen a quarter, so the hypergrowth appears to be leveling off a bit. Who knows if it stays around 200, or even goes back down? To try to form an educated guess I think we need to ask, what’s driving the big spenders?
Even if we accept that the TAM broadly defined really is $56b or whatever, how much of that is already taken? Monday says the deals they win are mostly greenfield – they’re not cutting into the billions of the TAM already being spent with Atlassian, Salesforce, Smartsheet, Asana, and dozens of private companies – so maybe the (green)field just isn’t that big.
How else do you explain the incredible slow down?
Q3 2021: 95% YoY revenue growth
Q4 2021: 91%
Q1 2022: 84%
Q2 2022: 75%
Q3 2022: 66% (includes a 5% beat)
Q4 2022: 60% (this would put them at 70% for the year – they’re guiding to 63% now)
Would be interested to see some thoughts on this from Monday bulls.
Bear