Berkshire growth in pessimistic scenario

Has anyone taken a look at what Berkshire’s value growth expectations would be under a pessimistic scenario where all new acquisitions from today were done on companies with standard (average) growth expectations but the current portfolio maintained its earnings growth?

In other words, a scenario where the current portfolio of companies continues growing/performing as it has in recent years, but all new acquisitions from now to the foreseeable future gave no advantage, resulting in growth of the new acquisitions matching the broader economy’s average growth.

Ultimately, I’m wondering how much %/yr reduction in value growth (and thus returns) we might expect in such a scenario. E.g., if Berkshire had been growing at 10%/yr in recent years (not sure the exact figure), what might this scenario be expected to take it down to. 6%/yr?


Very good question, I hope someone has done so.

I think Jim’s lower level baseline for Berkshire’s growth rate going forward was Siegel’s constant (around 6.7 percent per year + inflation).

Other opinions welcome.